GA (Trafalgar): Trump +7

[Progressive Pessimist]

Trump may still win here but he is not improving upon his 2016 performance, Trafailgar.

[Lief 🗽]

Funnily enough, Trafalgar did a GA poll a couple days before the 2016 election:
Trump+7. Actual result: Trump+5.1.

Not too bad, but then they went off the deep end in 2018, as previously mentioned:
Kemp+12. Actual result: Kemp+1.4.

Yeah you could maybe argue that Trafalgar has some "special sauce" in the Midwest, based on their 2016 performance (which I still disagree with but whatever), but there's not reason to think their polls in the rest of the country are anything other than R-leaning trash.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

"Biden is up by 15"

Polls also show Trump up in North Carolina and Georgia.

Sorry for not believing the national numbers.

I like to imagine you had this post typed up for 2 weeks and were waiting for the swing state poll with the best Trump numbers to use it on.

Unfortunately, the best you can hope for the time being is a Trafalgar poll. But anything to feed your conspiracies, I guess

[Hammy]

"Biden is up by 15"

Polls also show Trump up in North Carolina and Georgia.

Sorry for not believing the national numbers.

Trafalgar has done quite poorly outside of the upper Rust Belt and Florida.

[Annatar]

Regarding Trafalgar I will simply post again what I have already pointed out, according to Nate Cohn who I don't think distorts the data, Trafalgar was the 7th most accurate pollster in 2018, beating Marist and Quinnipiac. It had a 1.87% error on average in favour of the GOP. By contrast, Fox had a 3.05% error in favour of the democrats, Marist had a 4.43% error in favour of the democrats and Quinnipiac had a 2.75% error in favour of the democrats, so Trafalgar's bias was within the normal range.

 
twitter.com/GravisMarketing/status/1067057315327692805

Regarding the infamous Kemp +12 poll which was off 10.6%, I can find examples of such polling as well in other pollsters, Fox News was off 12.9% in the Indiana Senate race in 2018 but I don’t see people saying Fox can’t be trusted. NBC/Marist was off 9% in the Missouri senate race and I don’t see people saying we can’t trust it, I can find such examples in every pollster.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Regarding Trafalgar I will simply post again what I have already pointed out, according to Nate Cohn who I don't think distorts the data, Trafalgar was the 7th most accurate pollster in 2018, beating Marist and Quinnipiac. It had a 1.87% error on average in favour of the GOP. By contrast, Fox had a 3.05% error in favour of the democrats, Marist had a 4.43% error in favour of the democrats and Quinnipiac had a 2.75% error in favour of the democrats, so Trafalgar's bias was within the normal range.

 
twitter.com/GravisMarketing/status/1067057315327692805

Regarding the infamous Kemp +12 poll which was off 10.6%, I can find examples of such polling as well in other pollsters, Fox News was off 12.9% in the Indiana Senate race in 2018 but I don’t see people saying Fox can’t be trusted. NBC/Marist was off 9% in the Missouri senate race and I don’t see people saying we can’t trust it, I can find such examples in every pollster.

Dude, if you really believe that Trump will improve his 2016 performance in Georgia then you have lost all credibility.

[Hammy]

Regarding Trafalgar I will simply post again what I have already pointed out, according to Nate Cohn who I don't think distorts the data, Trafalgar was the 7th most accurate pollster in 2018, beating Marist and Quinnipiac. It had a 1.87% error on average in favour of the GOP. By contrast, Fox had a 3.05% error in favour of the democrats, Marist had a 4.43% error in favour of the democrats and Quinnipiac had a 2.75% error in favour of the democrats, so Trafalgar's bias was within the normal range.

 
twitter.com/GravisMarketing/status/1067057315327692805

Regarding the infamous Kemp +12 poll which was off 10.6%, I can find examples of such polling as well in other pollsters, Fox News was off 12.9% in the Indiana Senate race in 2018 but I don’t see people saying Fox can’t be trusted. NBC/Marist was off 9% in the Missouri senate race and I don’t see people saying we can’t trust it, I can find such examples in every pollster.

Your second point contracts your first--either they're a good pollster who sees things other's don't, or they're making the same mistakes everyone else is.  And you're finding literally one example for each other pollster which again contradicts your point, given Trafalgar has only done well with a few specific states.

[Annatar]

Regarding Trafalgar I will simply post again what I have already pointed out, according to Nate Cohn who I don't think distorts the data, Trafalgar was the 7th most accurate pollster in 2018, beating Marist and Quinnipiac. It had a 1.87% error on average in favour of the GOP. By contrast, Fox had a 3.05% error in favour of the democrats, Marist had a 4.43% error in favour of the democrats and Quinnipiac had a 2.75% error in favour of the democrats, so Trafalgar's bias was within the normal range.

 
twitter.com/GravisMarketing/status/1067057315327692805

Regarding the infamous Kemp +12 poll which was off 10.6%, I can find examples of such polling as well in other pollsters, Fox News was off 12.9% in the Indiana Senate race in 2018 but I don’t see people saying Fox can’t be trusted. NBC/Marist was off 9% in the Missouri senate race and I don’t see people saying we can’t trust it, I can find such examples in every pollster.

Your second point contracts your first--either they're a good pollster who sees things other's don't, or they're making the same mistakes everyone else is.  And you're finding literally one example for each other pollster which again contradicts your point, given Trafalgar has only done well with a few specific states.

My points do not contradict, I think they're a normal pollster like everyone else, that was my point, and normal pollsters have errors which is what the link shows. As for them only doing well in a few states, the tweet addresses that, they were more accurate than polls like Marist in 2018, if Trafalgar only did well in a few states they should not be ranked 7th but they are.

[Annatar]

Regarding Trafalgar I will simply post again what I have already pointed out, according to Nate Cohn who I don't think distorts the data, Trafalgar was the 7th most accurate pollster in 2018, beating Marist and Quinnipiac. It had a 1.87% error on average in favour of the GOP. By contrast, Fox had a 3.05% error in favour of the democrats, Marist had a 4.43% error in favour of the democrats and Quinnipiac had a 2.75% error in favour of the democrats, so Trafalgar's bias was within the normal range.

 
twitter.com/GravisMarketing/status/1067057315327692805

Regarding the infamous Kemp +12 poll which was off 10.6%, I can find examples of such polling as well in other pollsters, Fox News was off 12.9% in the Indiana Senate race in 2018 but I don’t see people saying Fox can’t be trusted. NBC/Marist was off 9% in the Missouri senate race and I don’t see people saying we can’t trust it, I can find such examples in every pollster.

Dude, if you really believe that Trump will improve his 2016 performance in Georgia then you have lost all credibility.

I'm not talking about whether Trump will do better in GA then 2016, that's not the point of my post, it's about the accuracy of Trafalgar relative to other polls, in 2018 they had a 1.87% bias in favour of the GOP which is well within the normal range that other polls did.

[mgop]

georgia will probably vote hard on race lines. 90+% whites for trump and 90+% blacks for biden.

[GeorgiaModerate]

georgia will probably vote hard on race lines. 90+% whites for trump and 90+% blacks for biden.

I guarantee that Trump will not get 90% of white voters in Georgia.

[South Dakota Democrat]

georgia will probably vote hard on race lines. 90+% whites for trump and 90+% blacks for biden.

That's a silly take that is supported by 0 evidence.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Seems pretty clear we're on track for something like this:

[Hammy]

georgia will probably vote hard on race lines. 90+% whites for trump and 90+% blacks for biden.

The gubernatorial race begs to differ: Kemp won 73% of whites, not 90%.  And Kemp was less unpopular when he ran than Trump currently is.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Seems pretty clear we're on track for something like this:

You're basing this off a Trafalgar poll 3 months out?

[Ferguson97]

Seems pretty clear we're on track for something like this:

Plus or minus North Carolina and this is about what I'm expecting

[Adam Griffin]

#Trump - 50%
#Biden - 43%
#Jorgensen-2%

[Badger]

georgia will probably vote hard on race lines. 90+% whites for trump and 90+% blacks for biden.

I guarantee that Trump will not get 90% of white voters in Georgia.

Nor even 10% of the black vote

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Trump wins GA by 3.5 points is my prediction right now

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Trump wins GA by 3.5 points is my prediction right now

Thank you for sharing.

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Georgia President by Trafalgar Group on 2020-07-18

Summary: D: 43%, R: 50%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Badger]

Trump wins GA by 3.5 points is my prediction right now

So another words bye two and a half times the margin that Kemp won by, despite being far more unpopular himself and Kemp ever was and running against a demonstrable a better candidate than Stacey Abrams?

Not saying it's impossible, but making a bald statement like that without explanation does tend to elicit a cool story bro response.

[Use Your Illusion]

So according to them Trump will do better than 2016.
Seems legit.

But if it actually happens people shouldn't be slapping their legs til they bruise in such disbelief. His diehards don't listen to facts. We live in the "If we didn't test so much we wouldn't have such high numbers" era and these people eat that sh**t up like it came from a diety. I fully expect Trump to do better in certain states than he did in 2016 regardless of the virus. Hardcore Republicans will protect any wrongdoing by their party but equally attack it if done by Democrats. Same applies to hardcore Democrats.


If Trump wins GA by +7 I'll sip my coffee and wonder how much more it would've been hard it not been for COVID. And if we're all wrong and Biden wins GA, I'll sip my coffee and breathe a sigh of relief that such blind fanatisicm finally passed us for at least this election cycle.