GA (Trafalgar): Trump +7
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  GA (Trafalgar): Trump +7		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: GA (Trafalgar): Trump +7  (Read 4268 times)
Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
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« on: July 20, 2020, 01:53:42 PM »


Same people who had Kemp up 12 right before election day.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #1 on: July 20, 2020, 01:56:25 PM »
It's just not there yet...

Seriously, this looks pretty junky.
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Arizona Iced Tea
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« Reply #2 on: July 20, 2020, 01:57:09 PM »
It is actually 5.5 not 7
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Lisa's voting Biden
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« Reply #3 on: July 20, 2020, 01:57:36 PM »
Good old sh*tty Trafalgar
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Roronoa D. Law
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« Reply #4 on: July 20, 2020, 01:58:24 PM »
Fake News
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WD
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« Reply #5 on: July 20, 2020, 02:00:59 PM »
>Decimals

Not to mention that they had Kemp+12 in 2018, so the fact that Trump is doing worse than that shows that the state is Tossup/Tilt D.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #6 on: July 20, 2020, 02:04:23 PM »
Polls are just reaffirming the 279 blue wall, I expected this, there is a rally around flag in the South around the Prez.

WI, PA, MI, CO, ME-2, NV, NM, VA and NH will go D
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #7 on: July 20, 2020, 02:05:05 PM »
Trafalgar quickly losing whatever shred of credibility they had left. How the mighty have fallen!
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Rookie Yinzer
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« Reply #8 on: July 20, 2020, 02:09:17 PM »
Judging by the Kemp +12 model, then Biden is up +4. Cheesy
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Rookie Yinzer
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« Reply #9 on: July 20, 2020, 02:11:04 PM »
But how are you running to correct someone and still wrong? LMAO. It's 6.5 which rounds up to 7 anyway. The title stands.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #10 on: July 20, 2020, 02:11:36 PM »
So according to them Trump will do better than 2016.
Seems legit.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #11 on: July 20, 2020, 02:12:29 PM »
I ...have my doubts.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #12 on: July 20, 2020, 02:22:51 PM »
Just when the haters were beginning to say things like “the mask bump isn’t real” or “Kanye West isn’t actually hurting Biden’s standing with black voters”, Trafalgar enters the scene like a superhero to prove them all wrong.
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IAMCANADIAN
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« Reply #13 on: July 20, 2020, 02:38:40 PM »
"Biden is up by 15"

Polls also show Trump up in North Carolina and Georgia.

Sorry for not believing the national numbers.
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #14 on: July 20, 2020, 02:44:17 PM »


Thank you Nate.
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WD
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« Reply #15 on: July 20, 2020, 02:52:05 PM »
Quote from: IAMCANADIAN on July 20, 2020, 02:38:40 PM
"Biden is up by 15"

Polls also show Trump up in North Carolina and Georgia.

Sorry for not believing the national numbers.

It’s more like the State numbers are Trash.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #16 on: July 20, 2020, 02:53:22 PM »

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Bakersfield Uber Alles
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« Reply #17 on: July 20, 2020, 03:04:00 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on July 20, 2020, 02:53:22 PM



At least they’re consistent. Better than Gravis can claim.
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Hammy
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« Reply #18 on: July 20, 2020, 03:19:11 PM »
« Edited: July 20, 2020, 03:24:31 PM by Hammy »
Quote from: MT Treasurer on July 20, 2020, 02:05:05 PM
Trafalgar quickly losing whatever shred of credibility they had left. How the mighty have fallen!

They are very good with certain states, and 2018 shows that. But Georgia is clearly not one of those states.

Though Trump has also saturated TV with ads claiming Biden wants to eliminate the police and showing a recorded line, all while images of (of course) blacks with fires in the background flash on the screen, clearly intended to scare whites, so who knows.
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Saruman
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« Reply #19 on: July 20, 2020, 03:24:31 PM »
Doubt it but I respect them for not herding.
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BobbieMac
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« Reply #20 on: July 20, 2020, 03:40:07 PM »
Need some USC/LA Times national polls again.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #21 on: July 20, 2020, 03:40:38 PM »
Trafalgar is a joke at this point.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #22 on: July 20, 2020, 03:46:35 PM »
Quote from: Saruman on July 20, 2020, 03:24:31 PM
Doubt it but I respect them for not herding.

Valid point.
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skbl17
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« Reply #23 on: July 20, 2020, 04:29:29 PM »
Lol. For starters, Trump+7 would indicate an improvement on his 2016 margin in the state (Trump+5). Remember, Kemp did better than him in rural Georgia in 2018, but metro Atlanta swung hard blue, reducing Kemp's victory margin by 80% compared to Trump's. For anything like Trump+7 to be remotely believable would require Trump to run 2016 numbers in the Atlanta suburbs...forgive me if I very, very, very strongly doubt that, because that would mean Biden running 8 points behind Abrams in Cobb, 9 points behind in Gwinnett, and 11 points behind in Henry...you get the deal.

Judging by the demographics of those counties, Trump's approval rating in Georgia (roughly even or 1-2 points underwater,) and Biden's strong performance in polls with suburban voters compared to Clinton, forgive me for taking this with a Stone Mountain-sized grain of salt.

Funnily enough, Trafalgar did a GA poll a couple days before the 2016 election:
Trump+7. Actual result: Trump+5.1.

Not too bad, but then they went off the deep end in 2018, as previously mentioned:
Kemp+12. Actual result: Kemp+1.4.

God I hope Election Twitter succeeds in reaching the donation threshold for a Georgia poll from SurveyUSA. I need quality polling.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #24 on: July 20, 2020, 05:17:16 PM »
It was always the case if the George Floyd protestors were motivated to turn out 70 M to 75 M voters, then Ds could have a big election night, of a landslide.  But, since the schools and colleges arent opening up, their attention span were short and they turned to other issues.

Biden always had other states as assurances,  but WI was always the ballgame, that's why if the election got close, the DNC Convention was there to reaffirm the blue wall
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