A lot has changed over the past decade, but let's not forget that SC was 4 points to the right of Georgia in 2008 & 2 points to the right in 2012 - not to mention varying competitive gubernatorial races before and after.
If Trump is on trajectory for an electoral collapse, then SC being 4 points to the right of GA wouldn't be unfathomable at all. Biden being in the 45-46% range (average of above 4 races is 45.5% D) is more believable than not.
Former President Adam Griffin knows his s**t around these blocks....
Gravis sucks as a polling outfit.... okay accept that fact.
Still, even if one lays down the spliff, it is not implausible if SC is close compared to ntl polling numbers...
White voters in SC might be a bit more elastic than suspected, especially in the era of COVID....
Another piece of information to consider:
The June registration figures for SC & GA show the following:
SC 26.2% Black
GA 30.0% Black
Based on registration alone, assuming representative turnout in both states and that both blacks & whites are each supporting Democrats by the same margins across both states, SC's margin would be 5.7 points to the right of Georgia's.
However, whites in SC do
not vote for Republicans at the same rate as they do in GA. Impressively enough, my white vote analysis for 2012, exit polls for 2016 and my calculations for SC in the 2018 gubernatorial race all point to an identical figure:
SC whites were 8 points (margin-wise) less Republican than GA whites in all 3 of those elections. What killed Clinton in SC in 2016 relative to GA's performance was black drop-off in turnout.
Adjust the aforementioned 5.7-point margin difference to account for the improved white performance and suddenly SC's margin would only be 1.2 points to the right of Georgia's. In reality, I'm sure the number is likely to be higher, but if Biden wins GA by 2, then Trump winning SC by 4 would fit well with the state's demography and voting habits during good years/contests for Democrats.
