SC-Gravis: Trump +4

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/GravisMarketing/status/1284611223569530882?s=20

[Landslide Lyndon]

That's nice but I will wait confirmation from a more reputable pollster.

[Lief 🗽]

I don’t understand this polling firm at all.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Definitely closer than I expect it to end up (I could see like Trump +8 or so), but if I see more polls like this from better pollsters I may have to re-evaluate things.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I don't see this state flipping under any circumstance for both President and Senate, but maybe Joe Cunningham can hang onto his seat if more, higher quality, polls back this up.

Still, even if it doesn't flip, this state potentially being in the single digits is absolutely awful for Trump.

[WD]

Trump will probably edge it out. SC only flips in a Biden Mega Landslide (PV victory of 15 or more) but if it’s within 8 points Trump is in a world of trouble.

[Adam Griffin]

A lot has changed over the past decade, but let's not forget that SC was 4 points to the right of Georgia in 2008 & 2 points to the right in 2012 - not to mention varying competitive gubernatorial races before and after.



If Trump is on trajectory for an electoral collapse, then SC being 4 points to the right of GA wouldn't be unfathomable at all. Biden being in the 45-46% range (average of above 4 races is 45.5% D) is more believable than not.

[Podgy the Bear]

As above--Biden will probably pull about 45-46% to get to a 6-7% deficit, close to Obama 2008 levels.  I agree (and hope) that Joe Cunningham may be able to pull it out in SC-01.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Obligatory "Good but needs a better pollster so this poll is meaningless" comment

[Calthrina950]

Trump will win South Carolina barring a complete and utter collapse in his poll numbers. Biden would probably have to win by an FDR 1932 or Eisenhower 1956 margin to carry South Carolina. Nevertheless, I can easily see Biden garnering 46%, and Trump winning the state by "only" 6 or 7%. If Trump is carrying South Carolina by a single digit margin, then he is almost certainly losing Georgia, North Carolina, and probably Texas, to say nothing of Arizona and the states in the Upper Midwest.

[G_Master]

barring a complete and utter collapse in his poll numbers.

Putting aside whether or not Biden can realistically win this state, hasn’t this already happened?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This poll shows Graham leading Harrison by 7, I guess that's that, on the Harrison insurgent campaign, just like John James, they are both 7 pts behind

[Calthrina950]

barring a complete and utter collapse in his poll numbers.

Putting aside whether or not Biden can realistically win this state, hasn’t this already happened?

You could say so, but I think it's very likely that Trump recedes even further, especially if coronavirus ravages the South (and the remainder of the country) to the point that hospital systems are under collapse and cases are out of control. Trump is down by a significant margin, but he is not yet at the depths that say, Herbert Hoover, sunk to in 1932.

[politicallefty]

It'd be very interesting if South Carolina fell. Reagan is the only candidate to ever win all the states on the Eastern Seaboard. It'd also probably doom Lindsay Graham. It's a nice thought.

[DINGO Joe]

I don’t understand this polling firm at all.

It's Gravis.  What more do you need to know?

[Alben Barkley]

It may sound crazy, but I’m feeling a 1932/1980 landslide this election. Would look something like this:

[Tender Branson]

I don’t understand this polling firm at all.

You don’t understand them ?

I do.

If they are polling privately, they understand the current environment and produce results accordingly.

If they poll for OANN, they behave like a good bitch and bend over to get screwed. Then they take the money.

[swf541]

I don’t understand this polling firm at all.

You don’t understand them ?

I do.

If they are polling privately, they understand the current environment and produce results accordingly.

If they poll for OANN, they behave like a good bitch and bend over to get screwed. Then they take the money.

Yep this seems to sum them up pretty well

[Tender Branson]

If all the last state polls are somewhat accurate and we look at Microsoft’s 50-state polling right now

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/elections-2020/polls

... I’m even more interested in a LA poll right now.

MSNs polling seems to be 10-11% too Democratic on average by state, if we look at the actual state polls.

On the other hand, if you subtract the 10-11% bias from the current D+9 in LA, you get just Trump+2.

Which makes it closer than SC or MO ...

[NOVA Green]

A lot has changed over the past decade, but let's not forget that SC was 4 points to the right of Georgia in 2008 & 2 points to the right in 2012 - not to mention varying competitive gubernatorial races before and after.



If Trump is on trajectory for an electoral collapse, then SC being 4 points to the right of GA wouldn't be unfathomable at all. Biden being in the 45-46% range (average of above 4 races is 45.5% D) is more believable than not.

Former President Adam Griffin knows his s**t around these blocks....

Gravis sucks as a polling outfit.... okay accept that fact.

Still, even if one lays down the spliff, it is not implausible if SC is close compared to ntl polling numbers...

White voters in SC might be a bit more elastic than suspected, especially in the era of COVID....

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

It may sound crazy, but I’m feeling a 1932/1980 landslide this election. Would look something like this:

Look at the Sunbelt Stack, you can drive from there all the way to the Rust Belt Rack. That is a authoritarian NUT map.

[DrScholl]

If you look at 2018 numbers it's not implausible for Biden to match the near 46% the Democrat got in the gubernatorial.

[Hope For A New Era]

White voters in SC might be a bit more elastic than suspected, especially in the era of COVID....

Elastic Midwesterners transplanted to Charleston could be an important demographic. Probably were for Joe Cunningham.

[South Dakota Democrat]

I don’t understand this polling firm at all.

They're bad.

[South Dakota Democrat]

It may sound crazy, but I’m feeling a 1932/1980 landslide this election. Would look something like this:

N U T