LA-SEN Megathread: Shreveport Mayor Adrian Perkins IN

[Pollster]

Democrats appear to be attempting an eleventh-hour recruitment of Shreveport Mayor Adrian Perkins, a 35-year old African American man who defeated an incumbent Democrat in a landslide in 2018, to the Senate race against Bill Cassidy. Filing deadline in July 24.

Race is obviously highly unlikely to be competitive.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

LA Democrats don’t have a huge bench and (as this is an off-year for Perkins) this could be a good chance for him to build a profile for future statewide runs (JBE is term-limited in 2023).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Likeliest outcome is a tied Senate in 2020 and WI, PA, NH and AZ will be competetive in 2022

[Meatball Ron]

LA Democrats don’t have a huge bench and (as this is an off-year for Perkins) this could be a good chance for him to build a profile for future statewide runs (JBE is term-limited in 2023).

This, plus good wave insurance

[Lognog]

Still mad we didn’t get anyone to run against cotton

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Still mad we didn’t get anyone to run against cotton

The party did, though he wasn't exactly a big name. Cotton found kompromat on the candidate and forced him to drop out after the filing deadline by threatening to release it.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Only way this could be a pickup is if Biden loses but this goes to runoff. Maybe D backlash would be just enough to barely flip, but that would take Trump losing, the race going to runoff, and really really amazing D turnout for a special election.

[Lognog]

Still mad we didn’t get anyone to run against cotton

The party did, though he wasn't exactly a big name. Cotton found kompromat on the candidate and forced him to drop out after the filing deadline by threatening to release it.

yeah but he withdrew. best we have is the libertarian nominee

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Still mad we didn’t get anyone to run against cotton

The party did, though he wasn't exactly a big name. Cotton found kompromat on the candidate and forced him to drop out after the filing deadline by threatening to release it.

yeah but he withdrew. best we have is the libertarian nominee

I felt mildly optimistic about the "independent progressive" putting in a semi-decent showing (for an independent, that is) before it emerged that he was struggling to get the signatures required for ballot access even when he had over 5 months of a Democrat-free field in which to amass support. This hasn't exactly been made any better by his campaign's promotion of such compelling kitchen table issues as Syrian chemical weapons conspiracy theories.

[foolcase]

Cassidy will win again.

[smoltchanov]

LA Democrats don’t have a huge bench and (as this is an off-year for Perkins) this could be a good chance for him to build a profile for future statewide runs (JBE is term-limited in 2023).

No chances to win, but yes - good insurance and good for building a profile.

[Orser67]

I don't have a problem with LA Dems trying their best to make this a competitive race, but there are so many better places to spend money this year.

[Lognog]

I don't have a problem with LA Dems trying their best to make this a competitive race, but there are so many better places to spend money this year.

I don't think anyone is significant amount of money here. just a campaign on paper.

[voice_of_resistance]

I mean they might as well put up a decent candidate in case Cassidy turns out to be Roy Moore.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Senate is likely gonna be a tie and 2 runoffs in GA are gonna determine the majority, Cassidy is safe

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Lousiana is not gonna be trending D since it is part of MIMAL, Dems should probably focus on MS, that is the more favorable state to them compared to Louisiana.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Lousiana is not gonna be trending D since it is part of MIMAL, Dems should probably focus on MS, that is the more favorable state to them compared to Louisiana.

What does being part of MIMAL have to do with trending R or D? MN and LA are completely different states politically, and we could very well see splits in how MIMAL trends in 2020.

[Pollster]

He's in

[brucejoel99]

He's in

Hasn't he only been Mayor for like a year-&-a-1/2 now? Has he done anything extraordinary for Shreveport that would lead a reasonable person (let alone himself) to conclude that he's arguably ready to jump for higher office so soon?

If not, then this seems pretty bizarre.

[foolcase]

Cassidy wins.

[MaxQue]

He's in

Hasn't he only been Mayor for like a year-&-a-1/2 now? Has he done anything extraordinary for Shreveport that would lead a reasonable person (let alone himself) to conclude that he's arguably ready to jump for higher office so soon?

If not, then this seems pretty bizarre.

The state party thinks he has potential and is pushing him to increase his reputation.

[MillennialModerate]

What are the odds JBE runs in 2022?

If it’s a Trump midterm he’d have a real shot IMO

[smoltchanov]

What are the odds JBE runs in 2022?

If it’s a Trump midterm he’d have a real shot IMO

Zero, i think. Louisiana governor has real power in the state (usually), unlike many in other states.. In addition - Democratic chances to win statewide federal race in Louisiana are about zero too, as long as about 85% of whites vote Republican in such races. So far Democratic shifts in some suburbs is cancelled by strong Republican currents in rural areas, where Democratic label became very toxic (except majority Black areas). And i don't think he would run for House: that's almost sure a "lesser prize", then governorship he holds now, and, in addition - he would need 40% (but - not more) Black district, but even it wouldn't be a guarantee (as he could compete with Black Democrat). And district with 35% or less would almost surely go Republican.

[lfromnj]

What are the odds JBE runs in 2022?

If it’s a Trump midterm he’d have a real shot IMO

His best bet to stay in politics is the court drawing a moderately Republican congressional seat instead of a second VRa seat based in baton rouge.