Kanye Ballot Access: Yeezus or Bust?

[Landslide Lyndon]

Here is my hot take: Kanye and the rest of the third parties will get close to zero votes because this year people aren't in a joking mood.

[BudgieForce]

On twitter, someone said that Kanye needs to get something like 30,000 signatures because the majority will get thrown out. It makes sense since South Carolina directly compares signatures to voter files.

[coloradocowboi]

Kanye will take more votes from Trump than Biden, especially looking at the middle America states he stands a chance in. 100% confident in that assertion.

I wouldn’t be so sure about that. Old white WWC’s aren’t exactly the kind of people who will vote for Kanye. Young people, minorities and people disillusioned with the binary choice are.

He says, contrary to the polling evidence we have, contrary to the approval numbers we have on Kanye, contrary to the reality of Kanye's political platform, because he literally cannot understand why young people and "minorities" are disillusioned with the binary choice. This is a dumb take, and Kanye will not "take" from Biden. His coalition will be Black ppl and young white men who were gonna either not vote or vote for Trump, a handful of religious conservatives, and maybe some incredibly stupid people who might've voted either way.

[BlueSwan]

Kanye will take more votes from Trump than Biden, especially looking at the middle America states he stands a chance in. 100% confident in that assertion.

I wouldn’t be so sure about that. Old white WWC’s aren’t exactly the kind of people who will vote for Kanye. Young people, minorities and people disillusioned with the binary choice are.

He says, contrary to the polling evidence we have, contrary to the approval numbers we have on Kanye, contrary to the reality of Kanye's political platform, because he literally cannot understand why young people and "minorities" are disillusioned with the binary choice. This is a dumb take, and Kanye will not "take" from Biden. His coalition will be Black ppl and young white men who were gonna either not vote or vote for Trump, a handful of religious conservatives, and maybe some incredibly stupid people who might've voted either way.

What polling evidence? We barely have any either way.

[Hammy]

Kanye will take more votes from Trump than Biden, especially looking at the middle America states he stands a chance in. 100% confident in that assertion.

I wouldn’t be so sure about that. Old white WWC’s aren’t exactly the kind of people who will vote for Kanye. Young people, minorities and people disillusioned with the binary choice are.

He says, contrary to the polling evidence we have, contrary to the approval numbers we have on Kanye, contrary to the reality of Kanye's political platform, because he literally cannot understand why young people and "minorities" are disillusioned with the binary choice. This is a dumb take, and Kanye will not "take" from Biden. His coalition will be Black ppl and young white men who were gonna either not vote or vote for Trump, a handful of religious conservatives, and maybe some incredibly stupid people who might've voted either way.

What polling evidence? We barely have any either way.

Even more ironic is, contrary to Kanye's claim, what little polling we do have shows he'll take entirely from Trump and undecideds.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Kanye will take more votes from Trump than Biden, especially looking at the middle America states he stands a chance in. 100% confident in that assertion.

I wouldn’t be so sure about that. Old white WWC’s aren’t exactly the kind of people who will vote for Kanye. Young people, minorities and people disillusioned with the binary choice are.

His coalition will be Black ppl and young white men who were gonna either not vote or vote for Trump, a handful of religious conservatives, and maybe some incredibly stupid people who might've voted either way.

Oh please tell me why his coalition will consist of black voters. Surely it can't be because Kanye is black

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

He got like 100 people at his SC rally? I bet he won't be on the ballot in SC...or many other states.

[Minnesota Mike]

Do we really need 3 active threads for a guy who will be on the ballot in only a couple states?

[Donerail]

Do we really need 3 active threads for a guy who will be on the ballot in only a couple states?

We are in the long, dull summer, when the primaries are over but the race has not yet begun in earnest. All we have now is endless and mostly-baseless speculation about running mates, meaningless discussion of polling, and Ye. People will stop talking about this as soon as there's something else to talk about.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

Do we really need 3 active threads for a guy who will be on the ballot in only a couple states?

We are in the long, dull summer, when the primaries are over but the race has not yet begun in earnest. All we have now is endless and mostly-baseless speculation about running mates, meaningless discussion of polling, and Ye. People will stop talking about this as soon as there's something else to talk about.

Implying 'Ye will lose.

[W]

It is my guess that West probably received above the threshold for signatures, but that so many of these will be thrown out that there is no way to know if he actually did it or not. My gut says no but 20 million Twitter followers may buy some things outside expectation.

[BudgieForce]

https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/1285243481670266881

[The Other Castro]

https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/1285245373401968640

[Tender Branson]

Good.

Another state bites the dust.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

A campaign that only sought ballot access signatures in a state the day before the deadline and then failed to even submit any sounds like a totally organized campaign likely to make ballot access in many remaining states.

[Gass3268]

Didn't make his home state ballot:

https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/1285335073953394696?s=20

[BudgieForce]

Didn't make his home state ballot:

https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/1285335073953394696?s=20

We're not sure yet.

Ben Jacob later tweeted that he did file at 4:56pm with 412 pages of signatures.

That doesnt mean he's on the ballot. Now the State Board has to go through each signature and determine if they're all legitimate.

I could see Kanye get on the Ballot in Illinois because it's his home state, and it has a really low signature requirement.

[Ronnie]

Didn't make his home state ballot:

https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/1285335073953394696?s=20

We're not sure yet.

Ben Jacob later tweeted that he did file at 4:56pm with 412 pages of signatures.

That doesnt mean he's on the ballot. Now the State Board has to go through each signature and determine if they're all legitimate.

I could see Kanye get on the Ballot in Illinois because it's his home state, and it has a really low signature requirement.

Wait, do you need 25,000 signatures to get on the ballot in Illinois, or 2,500?  Ben Jacobs says it's the latter, and the Ballotpedia independent ballot access requirement list says it's the former.

[The Other Castro]

Ballotpedia needs to be updated for a bunch of states due to COVID-19 changes. IL dropped the requirement to 2,500.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Didn't make his home state ballot:

https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/1285335073953394696?s=20

We're not sure yet.

Ben Jacob later tweeted that he did file at 4:56pm with 412 pages of signatures.

That doesnt mean he's on the ballot. Now the State Board has to go through each signature and determine if they're all legitimate.

I could see Kanye get on the Ballot in Illinois because it's his home state, and it has a really low signature requirement.

Wait, do you need 25,000 signatures to get on the ballot in Illinois, or 2,500?  Ben Jacobs says it's the latter, and the Ballotpedia independent ballot access requirement list says it's the former.

https://www.ilga.gov/legislation/ilcs/ilcs4.asp?DocName=001000050HArt%2E+10&ActID=170&ChapterID=3&SeqStart=48100000&SeqEnd=50300000

    (10 ILCS 5/10-3) (from Ch. 46, par. 10-3)
    Sec. 10-3. Nomination of independent candidates (not candidates of any political party), for any office to be filled by the voters of the State at large may also be made by nomination papers signed in the aggregate for each candidate by 1% of the number of voters who voted in the next preceding Statewide general election or 25,000 qualified voters of the State, whichever is less.

[DaleCooper]

A judge reduced Illinois' signature requirement to 2,500.

[W]

Gonna have to tinker with my maps considerably. West did not get on the ballot in SC, some states (IL) have changed signature requirements. I'll update these ASAP.

[BudgieForce]

I've read that most petition sheets have room for ten signatures. If Kanye turned in 412 signature sheets, he's handed in about 4000 signatures.

Usual rule of thumb seems to be that you should try and get three times the amount of signatures since the majority will get thrown out. I would not be shocked if Kanye isn't actually on the ballot. 

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Do we really need 3 active threads for a guy who will be on the ballot in only a couple states?

We are in the long, dull summer, when the primaries are over but the race has not yet begun in earnest. All we have now is endless and mostly-baseless speculation about running mates, meaningless discussion of polling, and Ye. People will stop talking about this as soon as there's something else to talk about.

Biden closing up the D primary so early this year has been hell as a political hack. What a depressing year this has been in terms of drama.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Do we really need 3 active threads for a guy who will be on the ballot in only a couple states?

We are in the long, dull summer, when the primaries are over but the race has not yet begun in earnest. All we have now is endless and mostly-baseless speculation about running mates, meaningless discussion of polling, and Ye. People will stop talking about this as soon as there's something else to talk about.

I guess now we gotta spend another 2 weeks talking about his supposed departure from the race?