AZ-OHPI: Biden +5

[pbrower2a]

4% is the usual margin of error in almost all states, and I can't see any reason for that not being so in Arizona. When I saw such a state as Pennsylvania going into this zone consistently I could no longer treat it as a toss-up. At this point, Trump must change the basic reality of day-to-day political attitudes in Arizona to win it. He must pull Arizona out of the fire, so to speak.

Yes, Arizona is a must-win for Trump. as are several other states and one of the often-wayward districts of Maine and Nebraska.

[pbrower2a]

Clinton wins (232) plus

MI*+PA+ME-02+NE-02 -- Biden wins
MI*+PA+any full state (AZ and WI are most likely) --  Biden wins
FL+ IA + any other state (an unlikely scenario for Biden because the closest state for him with fewer electoral votes than Iowa is either Alaska or Montana) -- Biden wins
FL+ IA + ME-02 +NE-02 gets a tie that Trump wins
FL+ any other state with 8 or more electoral votes -- Biden wins
GA* + NC + IA + either ME-02 or NE-02 -- Biden wins
GA* + NC + any state with at least seven electoral votes -- Biden wins.
PA + NC + any full state -- Biden wins
TX -- Biden wins

... Biden is not going to win Ohio without also winning PA and MI, so I don't figure Ohio except as icing on the cake. Likewise Biden is not going to win Iowa without also winning Wisconsin.

A substitution of Georgia for Michigan is possible because both states have 16 electoral votes, and the states are different enough that Biden could conceivably win one without the other.

I see Michigan -- MichiGONE for Trump at this point. If you are familiar with the Detroit Tigers' broadcasts involving the late Ernie Harwell, you can remember this sort of account of a certain play in the game:

Here's the pitch (especially to a left-handed slugger like Norm Cash, Kirk Gibson, or Lou Whitaker)... old Tiger Stadium made Lou Whitaker into a dreaded slugger despite his small size --

"It's a long fly to right field... going, going, GONE! A home run for..."