AZ-OHPI: Biden +5

[GeorgiaModerate]

Arizona: OHPI, July 6-7, 600 LV

Biden 49
Trump 44

https://twitter.com/AlexClearfield/status/1283734610137022465

[wbrocks67]

Sounds about right. Lines up with a Biden +10 lead nationally (8% to the left since 2016)

[wbrocks67]

Nate Cohn is so smart, yet really infuriates me on some days. This as a whole is such a bad set of tweets with so many easy discrepancies.

Love how pundits are cherrypicking polls to say "Biden is weak among Hispanics". The jury is out - for every Q-pac +10 poll, there is a NBC +45 poll.

Also, this was taken over a week ago, as things have gotten worse. And AZ Biden +5 is pretty much where the average has been, maybe a little above it. The highest I think I've seen is Biden +7 in AZ, so trying to spin this into a "good poll for Trump" is really a stretch here.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1283739221409374210

[pppolitics]

Nate Cohn is so smart, yet really infuriates me on some days. This as a whole is such a bad set of tweets with so many easy discrepancies.

Love how pundits are cherrypicking polls to say "Biden is weak among Hispanics". The jury is out - for every Q-pac +10 poll, there is a NBC +45 poll.

Also, this was taken over a week ago, as things have gotten worse. And AZ Biden +5 is pretty much where the average has been, maybe a little above it. The highest I think I've seen is Biden +7 in AZ, so trying to spin this into a "good poll for Trump" is really a stretch here.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1283739221409374210

I've looked at the other polls, and you are correct that this poll is older.

That said, I wouldn't be surprised at all if Biden is unusually strong in the midwest. After all, that was a big reason why Biden was chosen in the first place.

[Pulaski]

The highest I think I've seen is Biden +7 in AZ, so trying to spin this into a "good poll for Trump" is really a stretch here.

Yeah, it feels like a poll that shows a 5-point lead for your opponent in a swing state you won last time shouldn't really be considered "good" for you.

[Crumpets]

I like how OHPI is an anagram of Hopi. Well played.

[Devout Centrist]

I don’t know guys, Biden’s only up by 5 in a state that voted for Romney by 9? Disastrous news.

[Sir Mohamed]

Tilt D.

The margin, I assume will be slightly less than 5.

[pbrower2a]

4% is the usual margin of error in almost all states, and I can't see any reason for that not being so in Arizona. When I saw such a state as Pennsylvania going into this zone consistently I could no longer treat it as a toss-up. At this point, Trump must change the basic reality of day-to-day political attitudes in Arizona to win it. He must pull Arizona out of the fire, so to speak.

Yes, Arizona is a must-win for Trump. as are several other states and one of the often-wayward districts of Maine and Nebraska.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

4% is the usual margin of error in almost all states, and I can't see any reason for that not being so in Arizona. When I saw such a state as Pennsylvania going into this zone consistently I could no longer treat it as a toss-up. At this point, Trump must change the basic reality of day-to-day political attitudes in Arizona to win it. He must pull Arizona out of the fire, so to speak.

Yes, Arizona is a must-win for Trump. as are several other states and one of the often-wayward districts of Maine and Nebraska.

Florida is a must-win for Trump not Arizona. Trump can win without AZ but without FL, there's virtually no chance of him winning the Electoral College.

[pbrower2a]

Clinton wins (232) plus

MI*+PA+ME-02+NE-02 -- Biden wins
MI*+PA+any full state (AZ and WI are most likely) --  Biden wins
FL+ IA + any other state (an unlikely scenario for Biden because the closest state for him with fewer electoral votes than Iowa is either Alaska or Montana) -- Biden wins
FL+ IA + ME-02 +NE-02 gets a tie that Trump wins
FL+ any other state with 8 or more electoral votes -- Biden wins
GA* + NC + IA + either ME-02 or NE-02 -- Biden wins
GA* + NC + any state with at least seven electoral votes -- Biden wins.
PA + NC + any full state -- Biden wins
TX -- Biden wins

... Biden is not going to win Ohio without also winning PA and MI, so I don't figure Ohio except as icing on the cake. Likewise Biden is not going to win Iowa without also winning Wisconsin.

A substitution of Georgia for Michigan is possible because both states have 16 electoral votes, and the states are different enough that Biden could conceivably win one without the other.

I see Michigan -- MichiGONE for Trump at this point. If you are familiar with the Detroit Tigers' broadcasts involving the late Ernie Harwell, you can remember this sort of account of a certain play in the game:

Here's the pitch (especially to a left-handed slugger like Norm Cash, Kirk Gibson, or Lou Whitaker)... old Tiger Stadium made Lou Whitaker into a dreaded slugger despite his small size --

"It's a long fly to right field... going, going, GONE! A home run for..."

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Arizona has had a similar R-polling bias as Nevada and Texas for a few cycles in a row too.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Arizona has had a similar R-polling bias as Nevada and Texas for a few cycles in a row too.

Young people and working class Hispanics in AZ and TX have lower response rates. Biden could win AZ by 7 or so.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Wasn't Trump supposed to be supposedly recovering here?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump cant win without AZ, and Kelly is a lock to win AZ, his campaign is effectively over. Kelly is 9 points ahead of McSally