2008 Obama vs. Trump with 2020 map

[progressive85]

How would the 2008 version of Barack Obama do as the Democratic nominee in 2020? 

- Would his platform be any different?
- Who would be his best running mate?  Would it still be Joe Biden or someone else?
- Would Obama be as competitive as Biden in the 2020 swing states?
- Would his campaign theme and message - "hope and change" - be still right for today?

[progressive85]

My thoughts:

A Barack Obama-Tammy Duckworth ticket would be great except they are from the same state (and isn't that prohibited by law?)

I think he would win North Carolina again and Georgia this time (he did not win it in either 2008 or 2012).  Not sure about Texas.

He would be a much better candidate than any of the ones that ran in 2020 (including Joe) and it would have been likely an even bigger landslide primary victory.

He would represent the very different America than the one that Trump represents in 2020.

All in all, I totally wish Barack Obama was born later and had come up as a rising star around this time.

[bagelman]

Obama easily gets over 400 EVs. If he's running for the first time and against Trump, black turnout will be incredible. Georgia will seem easy in hindsight.

[McGarnagle]

In this alternate timeline, Senator Barack Obama was not elected President in 2008. After 14 years in the U.S. Senate, he announced his Presidential campaign in February 2019. An experienced, respected Senator and a natural campaigner, Obama defeated a crowded Democratic field, and then picked one of his rivals, Senator Elizabeth Warren, as his running mate.

After two terms of President Hillary Clinton, who defeated John McCain (who chose Mike Huckabee as his running mate) in 2008 and Mitt Romney (who chose Paul Ryan as his running mate) in 2012, Donald Trump, with Former Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate, shocked the world by defeating Vice President Evan Bayh and Representative Debbie Wasserman Schultz in the extremely close 2016 election.

By 2020, things are in a dire state with the coronavirus crisis being inadequately addressed and the economy in shambles. Obama wins big on Election Night, with the biggest Democratic landslide since 1964. Many conservatives who voted Trump/Palin in 2016 switched to Weld/Amash in 2020.

Obama/Warren (D) 53.5% 446 EV
Trump / Palin (R) 40.4% 92 EV
Weld / Amash (L) 4.2% 0 EV
Hawkins / Walker (G) 0.8%
Others / Write-Ins 1.1%

It would be 446 EV for #46

Presidents
44. President Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-NY), 2009-2017
45. President Donald Trump (R-NY/FL), 2017-2021
46. President Barack Obama (D-IL), 2021-2029

Vice Presidents
47. Vice President Evan Bayh (R-IN), 2009-2017
48. Vice President Sarah Palin (R-AK), 2017-2021
49. Vice President Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), 2021-2029

[😥]

...Obama defeated a crowded Democratic field, and then picked one of his rivals, Senator Elizabeth Warren, as his running mate...

...Obama/Warren (D) 53.5% 446 EV...
...49. Vice President Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), 2021-2029

Great scenario, but I don't think Elizabeth Warren would ever become a Senator. In 2010, Coakley would defeat Brown and Kerry would remain a Senator

[McGarnagle]

...Obama defeated a crowded Democratic field, and then picked one of his rivals, Senator Elizabeth Warren, as his running mate...

...Obama/Warren (D) 53.5% 446 EV...
...49. Vice President Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), 2021-2029

Great scenario, but I don't think Elizabeth Warren would ever become a Senator. In 2010, Coakley would defeat Brown and Kerry would remain a Senator

Thanks!

In this scenario, I would have President Clinton select John Kerry as Secretary of State in 2009. This would open up his senate seat, resulting in a different special election, which Warren wins.

[LabourJersey]

In this alternate timeline, Senator Barack Obama was not elected President in 2008. After 14 years in the U.S. Senate, he announced his Presidential campaign in February 2019. An experienced, respected Senator and a natural campaigner, Obama defeated a crowded Democratic field, and then picked one of his rivals, Senator Elizabeth Warren, as his running mate.

After two terms of President Hillary Clinton, who defeated John McCain (who chose Mike Huckabee as his running mate) in 2008 and Mitt Romney (who chose Paul Ryan as his running mate) in 2012, Donald Trump, with Former Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate, shocked the world by defeating Vice President Evan Bayh and Representative Debbie Wasserman Schultz in the extremely close 2016 election.

By 2020, things are in a dire state with the coronavirus crisis being inadequately addressed and the economy in shambles. Obama wins big on Election Night, with the biggest Democratic landslide since 1964. Many conservatives who voted Trump/Palin in 2016 switched to Weld/Amash in 2020.

Obama/Warren (D) 53.5% 446 EV
Trump / Palin (R) 40.4% 92 EV
Weld / Amash (L) 4.2% 0 EV
Hawkins / Walker (G) 0.8%
Others / Write-Ins 1.1%

It would be 446 EV for #46

Presidents
44. President Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-NY), 2009-2017
45. President Donald Trump (R-NY/FL), 2017-2021
46. President Barack Obama (D-IL), 2021-2029

Vice Presidents
47. Vice President Evan Bayh (R-IN), 2009-2017
48. Vice President Sarah Palin (R-AK), 2017-2021
49. Vice President Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), 2021-2029

Wow that is an awful Democratic ticket. Definitely awful enough to lose to Trump/Palin

[McGarnagle]

Yeah, Bayh/Wasserman Schultz loses New Hampshire in addition to Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. It's the least inspiring ticket I could think of.

Maps from 2008 to 2016

Obama doesn't run in 2008. Hillary Clinton sweeps the Democratic primaries.

2008 - Clinton defeats McCain
Clinton/Bayh (D) 52.4% 360 EV
McCain/Huckabee (R) 45.9% 178 EV

2012 - Clinton defeats Romney
Clinton/Bayh (D) 50.5% 303 EV
Romney/Ryan (R) 47.5% 235 EV

2016 - Trump defeats Bayh
Trump/Palin (R) 46.1% 310 EV
Bayh/Wasserman Schultz (D) 47.7% 228 EV

[Left Wing]

So are we saying that Obama was born in 1973 and elected senator in 2016?

[Andrew Yang 2024]

Sure. If that suits you, go ahead.