SC-Gravis: Trump +4

[Adam Griffin]

A lot has changed over the past decade, but let's not forget that SC was 4 points to the right of Georgia in 2008 & 2 points to the right in 2012 - not to mention varying competitive gubernatorial races before and after.



If Trump is on trajectory for an electoral collapse, then SC being 4 points to the right of GA wouldn't be unfathomable at all. Biden being in the 45-46% range (average of above 4 races is 45.5% D) is more believable than not.

Former President Adam Griffin knows his s**t around these blocks....

Gravis sucks as a polling outfit.... okay accept that fact.

Still, even if one lays down the spliff, it is not implausible if SC is close compared to ntl polling numbers...

White voters in SC might be a bit more elastic than suspected, especially in the era of COVID....

Another piece of information to consider:

The June registration figures for SC & GA show the following:

SC 26.2% Black      
GA 30.0% Black   

Based on registration alone, assuming representative turnout in both states and that both blacks & whites are each supporting Democrats by the same margins across both states, SC's margin would be 5.7 points to the right of Georgia's.

However, whites in SC do not vote for Republicans at the same rate as they do in GA. Impressively enough, my white vote analysis for 2012, exit polls for 2016 and my calculations for SC in the 2018 gubernatorial race all point to an identical figure: SC whites were 8 points (margin-wise) less Republican than GA whites in all 3 of those elections. What killed Clinton in SC in 2016 relative to GA's performance was black drop-off in turnout.

Adjust the aforementioned 5.7-point margin difference to account for the improved white performance and suddenly SC's margin would only be 1.2 points to the right of Georgia's. In reality, I'm sure the number is likely to be higher, but if Biden wins GA by 2, then Trump winning SC by 4 would fit well with the state's demography and voting habits during good years/contests for Democrats.

[ctrepublican512]

A lot has changed over the past decade, but let's not forget that SC was 4 points to the right of Georgia in 2008 & 2 points to the right in 2012 - not to mention varying competitive gubernatorial races before and after.



If Trump is on trajectory for an electoral collapse, then SC being 4 points to the right of GA wouldn't be unfathomable at all. Biden being in the 45-46% range (average of above 4 races is 45.5% D) is more believable than not.

Former President Adam Griffin knows his s**t around these blocks....

Gravis sucks as a polling outfit.... okay accept that fact.

Still, even if one lays down the spliff, it is not implausible if SC is close compared to ntl polling numbers...

White voters in SC might be a bit more elastic than suspected, especially in the era of COVID....

Another piece of information to consider:

The June registration figures for SC & GA show the following:

SC 26.2% Black      
GA 30.0% Black   

Based on registration alone, assuming representative turnout in both states and that both blacks & whites are each supporting Democrats by the same margins across both states, SC's margin would be 5.7 points to the right of Georgia's.

However, whites in SC do not vote for Republicans at the same rate as they do in GA. Impressively enough, my white vote analysis for 2012, exit polls for 2016 and my calculations for SC in the 2018 gubernatorial race all point to an identical figure: SC whites were 8 points (margin-wise) less Republican than GA whites in all 3 of those elections. What killed Clinton in SC in 2016 relative to GA's performance was black drop-off in turnout.

Adjust the aforementioned 5.7-point margin difference to account for the improved white performance and suddenly SC's margin would only be 1.2 points to the right of Georgia's. In reality, I'm sure the number is likely to be higher, but if Biden wins GA by 2, then Trump winning SC by 4 would fit well with the state's demography and voting habits during good years/contests for Democrats.

Are whites in GA more rural compared to whites in SC?

[Adam Griffin]

A lot has changed over the past decade, but let's not forget that SC was 4 points to the right of Georgia in 2008 & 2 points to the right in 2012 - not to mention varying competitive gubernatorial races before and after.



If Trump is on trajectory for an electoral collapse, then SC being 4 points to the right of GA wouldn't be unfathomable at all. Biden being in the 45-46% range (average of above 4 races is 45.5% D) is more believable than not.

Former President Adam Griffin knows his s**t around these blocks....

Gravis sucks as a polling outfit.... okay accept that fact.

Still, even if one lays down the spliff, it is not implausible if SC is close compared to ntl polling numbers...

White voters in SC might be a bit more elastic than suspected, especially in the era of COVID....

Another piece of information to consider:

The June registration figures for SC & GA show the following:

SC 26.2% Black      
GA 30.0% Black   

Based on registration alone, assuming representative turnout in both states and that both blacks & whites are each supporting Democrats by the same margins across both states, SC's margin would be 5.7 points to the right of Georgia's.

However, whites in SC do not vote for Republicans at the same rate as they do in GA. Impressively enough, my white vote analysis for 2012, exit polls for 2016 and my calculations for SC in the 2018 gubernatorial race all point to an identical figure: SC whites were 8 points (margin-wise) less Republican than GA whites in all 3 of those elections. What killed Clinton in SC in 2016 relative to GA's performance was black drop-off in turnout.

Adjust the aforementioned 5.7-point margin difference to account for the improved white performance and suddenly SC's margin would only be 1.2 points to the right of Georgia's. In reality, I'm sure the number is likely to be higher, but if Biden wins GA by 2, then Trump winning SC by 4 would fit well with the state's demography and voting habits during good years/contests for Democrats.

Are whites in GA more rural compared to whites in SC?

The definitions of "rural" are highly subjective depending on the delineations used, but based on UCC metro/rural measurements utilized in this thread (developed I believe by muon originally) and using CVAP 2018 figures, 22.0% of adult white citizens in SC live in rural counties versus 33.5% in GA. It's also worth noting that Obama and Clinton did better overall in the rural SC counties than the metro SC ones (given black citizens are a greater share of population in rural SC than metro SC), with Obama even winning the rural counties in '12 in SC by 1 point.

[Brandern]

Chawleston is a classic example of college-educated, upper-middle class people fleeing the GOP. It no longer makes any sense.

This will be a suburb election, with help from the rural areas. Even in SC, if the suburbs flee the GOP, it is going to be very interesting. Coastal Carolina and Columbia could do it.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I don't think Biden will win, but he could get 45-46%. Trump is bleeding support here from those who I speak with in Charleston. If anything, this is good news for Cunningham, who I really want to see re-elected.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

I don't think Biden will win, but he could get 45-46%. Trump is bleeding support here from those who I speak with in Charleston. If anything, this is good news for Cunningham, who I really want to see re-elected.

Upstate SC hates the coast and Charleston apparently. They mock them as beach bums. What is weird is in SC is the most populated areas are all deep inland in SC, not Charleston or other coastal areas.

[Badger]

I don't think Biden will win, but he could get 45-46%. Trump is bleeding support here from those who I speak with in Charleston. If anything, this is good news for Cunningham, who I really want to see re-elected.

Upstate SC hates the coast and Charleston apparently. They mock them as beach bums. What is weird is in SC is the most populated areas are all deep inland in SC, not Charleston or other coastal areas.

What is their opinion of heavily Republican Myrtle Beach and Horry County, the definition of Beach Bum culture? 20 times more than Charleston at least