Change Research/CNBC: Biden +10%; +6% in AZ, +7% in FL, +6% in MI, +1% in NC, +8% in PA, +6% in WI
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  Change Research/CNBC: Biden +10%; +6% in AZ, +7% in FL, +6% in MI, +1% in NC, +8% in PA, +6% in WI
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Author Topic: Change Research/CNBC: Biden +10%; +6% in AZ, +7% in FL, +6% in MI, +1% in NC, +8% in PA, +6% in WI  (Read 1217 times)
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« on: July 15, 2020, 04:54:33 AM »

https://www.changeresearch.com/post/states-of-play-battleground-wave-9

July 10-12, 2020
1258 likely voters (nationally)
MoE: 2.76% for national sample

Nationally:

Biden 51%
Trump 41%
Jorgensen 3%
Hawkins 2%
Would not vote 0%
Not sure 2%

Battleground states (AZ/FL/MI/NC/PA/WI) sample: 4332 likely voters (exact sample sizes also given for individual states)
MoE: 1.49% for battleground sample 

Biden 49%
Trump 43%
Jorgensen 4%
Hawkins 1%
Would not vote 0%
Not sure 3%


AZ:
345 likely voters
Biden 51%
Trump 45%

FL:
1128 likely voters
Biden 50%
Trump 43%

MI:
824 likely voters
Biden 48%
Trump 42%

NC:
655 likely voters
Biden 47%
Trump 46%

PA:
743 likely voters
Biden 50%
Trump 42%

WI:
601 likely voters
Biden 48%
Trump 42%
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #1 on: July 15, 2020, 05:04:55 AM »

Fake pollster, can't believe they're still getting work.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2 on: July 15, 2020, 05:08:08 AM »

Well, Jorgensen and Hawkins are not getting 5%, but good that Biden is getting 51% even with them in the mix.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3 on: July 15, 2020, 05:13:22 AM »
« Edited: July 15, 2020, 05:17:40 AM by TiltsAreUnderrated »

Changes on the margins in the last Change Research/CNBC poll (June 26-28, 2020):

National: Biden +2%
Battleground: Biden +3%
AZ: Biden -1% (Kelly -2%)
FL: Biden +2%
MI: Biden +1% (Peters +0%)
NC: Biden -6% (Cunningham -3%)
PA: Biden +2%
WI: Biden -2%
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BobbieMac
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« Reply #4 on: July 15, 2020, 05:26:49 AM »

51/41 on UNS gives Biden 368 Trump 170

Difference from UNS expected

AZ - (+2)
FL - =
MI - (-2)
NC - (-3)
PA - (+1)
WI - (-1)

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5 on: July 15, 2020, 09:22:37 AM »

Trump cannot win with these numbers. The calendar is beginning to work against him.
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woodley park
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« Reply #6 on: July 15, 2020, 10:35:47 AM »

Trump cannot win with these numbers. The calendar is beginning to work against him.

I'm strongly inclined to agree. The issue I have with people still saying that Trump has a chance is that, a few months ago there was consensus here that if Trump rushed a re-opening and caused a second surge of cases, he was done for. Well, here we are. And we still don't want to count him out? Or is OK to have a second surge of cases, so long as it happens four months before the election and not two?
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Obama-Biden Democrat
Zyzz
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #7 on: July 15, 2020, 06:04:52 PM »

Those meh numbers in the Midwest/Rustbelt are disappointing would actually show minor R trends again compared to the national average, despite Biden having some Rustbelt appeal.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #8 on: July 15, 2020, 06:34:57 PM »

I could buy these numbers, even if they're from a not-so-great polling company.
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