MT (PPP): Bullock +2 (user search)
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  MT (PPP): Bullock +2 (search mode)
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Author Topic: MT (PPP): Bullock +2  (Read 2955 times)
wbrocks67
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« on: July 13, 2020, 09:32:14 AM »
Quote from: Senator YE on July 13, 2020, 09:31:04 AM
I have a feeling Bullock narrowly pulls this out much like Tester’s wins.

Yep, would not be surprised if Bullock pretty much duplicates Tester's margin from 2018
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1 on: July 13, 2020, 09:47:02 AM »
Quote from: VARepublican on July 13, 2020, 09:38:45 AM
Quote from: Gass3268 on July 13, 2020, 09:34:35 AM
Quote from: VARepublican on July 13, 2020, 09:32:35 AM
Isn’t the sample slightly skewed toward D’s? Trump got 56% of the vote in ‘16 but this poll has  him at 52%. Given there’s no influx of new voters to MT, it shouldn’t be that way.

Anyway, tilt Daines.

Montana has swung against the incumbent President in every election since 1984. Trump only getting 52% would not be shocking.

No, it’s the sample. It looks like this:

Trump ‘16 voters - 52%
Clinton ‘16 voters - 36%
Other - 12%

The 2016 election:

Trump - 56%
Clinton - 36%
Other - 8%

Don't they weigh it based off of the 2016 sample though?
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