MT (PPP): Bullock +2 (user search)
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  MT (PPP): Bullock +2 (search mode)
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Author Topic: MT (PPP): Bullock +2  (Read 3185 times)
wbrocks67
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Posts: 23,285


« on: July 13, 2020, 09:32:14 AM »

I have a feeling Bullock narrowly pulls this out much like Testerís wins.

Yep, would not be surprised if Bullock pretty much duplicates Tester's margin from 2018
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wbrocks67
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Posts: 23,285


« Reply #1 on: July 13, 2020, 09:47:02 AM »

Isnít the sample slightly skewed toward Dís? Trump got 56% of the vote in Ď16 but this poll has  him at 52%. Given thereís no influx of new voters to MT, it shouldnít be that way.

Anyway, tilt Daines.

Montana has swung against the incumbent President in every election since 1984. Trump only getting 52% would not be shocking.

No, itís the sample. It looks like this:

Trump Ď16 voters - 52%
Clinton Ď16 voters - 36%
Other - 12%

The 2016 election:

Trump - 56%
Clinton - 36%
Other - 8%

Don't they weigh it based off of the 2016 sample though?
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