MT (PPP): Bullock +2
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  MT (PPP): Bullock +2
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Author Topic: MT (PPP): Bullock +2  (Read 1319 times)
Bidenworth2020
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« on: July 13, 2020, 09:02:34 AM »

Bullock 46
Daines 44

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/polls/bullock-most-popular-montana-politician-narrowly-leads-daines/
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Mr. Kanye West
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« Reply #1 on: July 13, 2020, 09:06:57 AM »

Great news, Daines is DOA, MT Lean D
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #2 on: July 13, 2020, 09:14:38 AM »

Not sure 10%

1224 voters
July 9-10, 2020
MoE: 2.8%
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Josh Shapiro for Governor
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« Reply #3 on: July 13, 2020, 09:21:01 AM »
« Edited: July 13, 2020, 09:29:06 AM by Make PA Blue Again! »

This is the fourth poll in a row showing Bullock with a lead.

PPP's last poll in March had the race tied.
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Western Democrat
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« Reply #4 on: July 13, 2020, 09:25:03 AM »

Tilt D
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YE
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« Reply #5 on: July 13, 2020, 09:31:04 AM »

I have a feeling Bullock narrowly pulls this out much like Tester’s wins.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #6 on: July 13, 2020, 09:32:14 AM »

I have a feeling Bullock narrowly pulls this out much like Tester’s wins.

Yep, would not be surprised if Bullock pretty much duplicates Tester's margin from 2018
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VARep
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« Reply #7 on: July 13, 2020, 09:32:35 AM »
« Edited: July 13, 2020, 09:52:19 AM by VARepublican »

Isn’t the sample slightly skewed toward D’s? Trump got 56% of the vote in ‘16 but this poll has  him at 52%. Given there’s no influx of new voters to MT, it shouldn’t be that way.

Anyway, tilt Bullock.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #8 on: July 13, 2020, 09:34:35 AM »

Isn’t the sample slightly skewed toward D’s? Trump got 56% of the vote in ‘16 but this poll has  him at 52%. Given there’s no influx of new voters to MT, it shouldn’t be that way.

Anyway, tilt Daines.

Montana has swung against the incumbent President in every election since 1984. Trump only getting 52% would not be shocking.
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Mr. Kanye West
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« Reply #9 on: July 13, 2020, 09:35:03 AM »

Isn’t the sample slightly skewed toward D’s? Trump got 56% of the vote in ‘16 but this poll has  him at 52%. Given there’s no influx of new voters to MT, it shouldn’t be that way.

Anyway, tilt Daines.

Yeah but Rs are only 4 pts ahead in the Gov race, this helps put Bullock, Rs need to be winning the Gov race overwhelmingly

Trump Jr has ties to the R nominee for Gov and said Dems have no chance for the Senate race
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Western Democrat
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« Reply #10 on: July 13, 2020, 09:35:45 AM »

Isn’t the sample slightly skewed toward D’s? Trump got 56% of the vote in ‘16 but this poll has  him at 52%. Given there’s no influx of new voters to MT, it shouldn’t be that way.

Anyway, tilt Daines.

What? Bullock is leading and Daines has a tied approval. An incumbent at 44% is in no way favored.
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VARep
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« Reply #11 on: July 13, 2020, 09:38:45 AM »

Isn’t the sample slightly skewed toward D’s? Trump got 56% of the vote in ‘16 but this poll has  him at 52%. Given there’s no influx of new voters to MT, it shouldn’t be that way.

Anyway, tilt Daines.

Montana has swung against the incumbent President in every election since 1984. Trump only getting 52% would not be shocking.

No, it’s the sample. It looks like this:

Trump ‘16 voters - 52%
Clinton ‘16 voters - 36%
Other - 12%

The 2016 election:

Trump - 56%
Clinton - 36%
Other - 8%
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SN2903
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« Reply #12 on: July 13, 2020, 09:39:51 AM »

Daines will pull it out by 2-4%. Trump wins MT by 16 17% in the end.
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VARep
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« Reply #13 on: July 13, 2020, 09:40:53 AM »

Isn’t the sample slightly skewed toward D’s? Trump got 56% of the vote in ‘16 but this poll has  him at 52%. Given there’s no influx of new voters to MT, it shouldn’t be that way.

Anyway, tilt Daines.

What? Bullock is leading and Daines has a tied approval. An incumbent at 44% is in no way favored.

Oh no! I meant to say tilt Bullock. They’re both Steves!
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Western Democrat
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« Reply #14 on: July 13, 2020, 09:41:35 AM »

Isn’t the sample slightly skewed toward D’s? Trump got 56% of the vote in ‘16 but this poll has  him at 52%. Given there’s no influx of new voters to MT, it shouldn’t be that way.

Anyway, tilt Daines.

What? Bullock is leading and Daines has a tied approval. An incumbent at 44% is in no way favored.

Oh no! I meant to say tilt Bullock. They’re both Steves!

This poll is pretty good for Steve tbh imo
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #15 on: July 13, 2020, 09:47:02 AM »

Isn’t the sample slightly skewed toward D’s? Trump got 56% of the vote in ‘16 but this poll has  him at 52%. Given there’s no influx of new voters to MT, it shouldn’t be that way.

Anyway, tilt Daines.

Montana has swung against the incumbent President in every election since 1984. Trump only getting 52% would not be shocking.

No, it’s the sample. It looks like this:

Trump ‘16 voters - 52%
Clinton ‘16 voters - 36%
Other - 12%

The 2016 election:

Trump - 56%
Clinton - 36%
Other - 8%

Don't they weigh it based off of the 2016 sample though?
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #16 on: July 13, 2020, 09:56:35 AM »

Pure tossup. Bullock probably ends up being the best recruit for Dems in the 2020 cycle. I think this race as a 50/50 chance for either side.
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SN2903
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« Reply #17 on: July 13, 2020, 10:19:45 AM »

Pure tossup. Bullock probably ends up being the best recruit for Dems in the 2020 cycle. I think this race as a 50/50 chance for either side.
In a midterm year I would agree but I still give Daines the slight edge.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #18 on: July 13, 2020, 10:34:24 AM »

Pure tossup. Bullock probably ends up being the best recruit for Dems in the 2020 cycle. I think this race as a 50/50 chance for either side.
In a midterm year I would agree but I still give Daines the slight edge.

Bullock won in a presidential year twice and turnout this year will be higher than 2018 and not less of a Dem wave year. Possibly even more.
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Mr. Kanye West
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« Reply #19 on: July 13, 2020, 10:35:17 AM »

Daines havent lead in any recent polls, the last 4 polls
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lfromnj
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« Reply #20 on: July 13, 2020, 10:45:50 AM »

Pure tossup. Bullock probably ends up being the best recruit for Dems in the 2020 cycle. I think this race as a 50/50 chance for either side.
In a midterm year I would agree but I still give Daines the slight edge.

Bullock won in a presidential year twice and turnout this year will be higher than 2018 and not less of a Dem wave year. Possibly even more.

Technically MT turnout in 2018 was higher than 2016.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #21 on: July 13, 2020, 10:51:07 AM »

Pure tossup. Bullock probably ends up being the best recruit for Dems in the 2020 cycle. I think this race as a 50/50 chance for either side.
In a midterm year I would agree but I still give Daines the slight edge.

Bullock won in a presidential year twice and turnout this year will be higher than 2018 and not less of a Dem wave year. Possibly even more.

Technically MT turnout in 2018 was higher than 2016.

2020 will be more like 2018 in terms of energy, though.
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Arizona Iced Tea
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« Reply #22 on: July 13, 2020, 10:54:37 AM »

I feel like this could be like MO senate 2016
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Mr. Kanye West
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« Reply #23 on: July 13, 2020, 10:55:03 AM »

The most polarizing figures in the Senate are Daines and McConnell that Ds dont like
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South Dakota Democrat
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« Reply #24 on: July 13, 2020, 11:08:05 AM »

Daines will pull it out by 2-4%. Trump wins MT by 16 17% in the end.

Could I borrow your crystal ball?
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