MT (PPP): Bullock +2 (user search)
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  MT (PPP): Bullock +2 (search mode)
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Author Topic: MT (PPP): Bullock +2  (Read 2975 times)
SN2903
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,676
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: 3.91

P P
« on: July 13, 2020, 09:39:51 AM »

Daines will pull it out by 2-4%. Trump wins MT by 16 17% in the end.
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SN2903
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,676
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: 3.91

P P
« Reply #1 on: July 13, 2020, 10:19:45 AM »

Pure tossup. Bullock probably ends up being the best recruit for Dems in the 2020 cycle. I think this race as a 50/50 chance for either side.
In a midterm year I would agree but I still give Daines the slight edge.
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SN2903
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,676
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: 3.91

P P
« Reply #2 on: July 13, 2020, 02:53:36 PM »


There's really no evidence to support it being lean R.  You could argue that the state's partisan lean makes it so, but that argument is flawed because downballot Dems routinely outrun the top of the ticket in Montana (see both of Bullock's victories, Tester's victory in 2012, etc.)
Montana is a Likely R/Safe R state at the Presidential level. This is a presidential year. Turnout will likely be high on both sides as Trump is polarizing, obviously, that is why Daines is likely to pull it out in my opinion. High turnout in a red state favors Rs in a state leans that way.
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