MT (PPP): Bullock +2

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Great news, Daines is DOA, MT Lean D

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Isn’t the sample slightly skewed toward D’s? Trump got 56% of the vote in ‘16 but this poll has  him at 52%. Given there’s no influx of new voters to MT, it shouldn’t be that way.

Anyway, tilt Daines.

Yeah but Rs are only 4 pts ahead in the Gov race, this helps put Bullock, Rs need to be winning the Gov race overwhelmingly

Trump Jr has ties to the R nominee for Gov and said Dems have no chance for the Senate race

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Daines havent lead in any recent polls, the last 4 polls

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The most polarizing figures in the Senate are Daines and McConnell that Ds dont like

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The most polarizing figures in the Senate are Daines and McConnell that Ds dont like

Most people have no idea who Steve Daines is.

That's the problem, he isnt seen that much and we they saw him, he defended Trump on impeachment

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lean R, Daines 51-47

There's really no evidence to support it being lean R.  You could argue that the state's partisan lean makes it so, but that argument is flawed because downballot Dems routinely outrun the top of the ticket in Montana (see both of Bullock's victories, Tester's victory in 2012, etc.)

Montana is a Likely R/Safe R state at the Presidential level. This is a presidential year. Turnout will likely be high on both sides as Trump is polarizing, obviously, that is why Daines is likely to pull it out in my opinion. High turnout in a red state favors Rs in a state leans that way.

Biden is ahead of Trump by 7 in a Rassy poll

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lean R, Daines 51-47

There's really no evidence to support it being lean R.  You could argue that the state's partisan lean makes it so, but that argument is flawed because downballot Dems routinely outrun the top of the ticket in Montana (see both of Bullock's victories, Tester's victory in 2012, etc.)

Montana is a Likely R/Safe R state at the Presidential level. This is a presidential year. Turnout will likely be high on both sides as Trump is polarizing, obviously, that is why Daines is likely to pull it out in my opinion. High turnout in a red state favors Rs in a state leans that way.

Look at 2012 Donnelly, McCaskill and Sherrod Brown all won when Obama beat Romney and those were Likely R states at Prez level.  And KS went D in 2018 for Gov, there is a flaw in your argument

Bollier, Bullock can win in a Prez year in Lean R states just like Brown, McCaskill,  Tester and Donnelly won in 2012 when Obama beat Romney.

Tester won in MT in 2012 as MT went R for Prez, too

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

GOV race is close enough Ds can win it, Cooney needs to win, so Bullock can win