MT (PPP): Bullock +2

[South Dakota Democrat]

Daines will pull it out by 2-4%. Trump wins MT by 16 17% in the end.

Could I borrow your crystal ball?

[South Dakota Democrat]

I feel like this could be like MO senate 2016

If polls were correct and Clinton had won Democrats likely would have picked up that seat.

It's astounding how much better of a candidate Jason Kander was than Claire McCaskill.  Kander outran the top of his ticket by several points in an R-leaning presidential year, while McCaskill lost (and not in a squeaker, either, but by a relatively clear margin of 5-6 points) in a D-leaning midterm.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Lean R, Daines 51-47

There's really no evidence to support it being lean R.  You could argue that the state's partisan lean makes it so, but that argument is flawed because downballot Dems routinely outrun the top of the ticket in Montana (see both of Bullock's victories, Tester's victory in 2012, etc.)

[South Dakota Democrat]

In regards to the 2016 lean, isn't it not that uncommon for people to sort of lie on the margins as to how they voted depending on who ends up winning, or how popular they currently are?

Very true.  After JFK was assassinated, I think something like 90% of people claimed they voted for him. 

[South Dakota Democrat]

Lean R, Daines 51-47

There's really no evidence to support it being lean R.  You could argue that the state's partisan lean makes it so, but that argument is flawed because downballot Dems routinely outrun the top of the ticket in Montana (see both of Bullock's victories, Tester's victory in 2012, etc.)

Montana is a Likely R/Safe R state at the Presidential level. This is a presidential year. Turnout will likely be high on both sides as Trump is polarizing, obviously, that is why Daines is likely to pull it out in my opinion. High turnout in a red state favors Rs in a state leans that way.

Yeah, let's just ignore what I said.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Lean R, Daines 51-47

There's really no evidence to support it being lean R.  You could argue that the state's partisan lean makes it so, but that argument is flawed because downballot Dems routinely outrun the top of the ticket in Montana (see both of Bullock's victories, Tester's victory in 2012, etc.)

Montana is a Likely R/Safe R state at the Presidential level. This is a presidential year. Turnout will likely be high on both sides as Trump is polarizing, obviously, that is why Daines is likely to pull it out in my opinion. High turnout in a red state favors Rs in a state leans that way.

Look at 2012 Donnelly, McCaskill and Sherrod Brown all won when Obama beat Romney and those were Likely R states at Prez level.  And KS went D in 2018 for Gov, there is a flaw in your argument

Bollier, Bullock can win in a Prez year in Lean R states just like Brown, McCaskill,  Tester and Donnelly won in 2012 when Obama beat Romney.

Tester won in MT in 2012 as MT went R for Prez, too

This is correct.