MT (PPP): Bullock +2
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  MT (PPP): Bullock +2
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Author Topic: MT (PPP): Bullock +2  (Read 2967 times)
Roronoa D. Law
Patrick97
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« Reply #25 on: July 13, 2020, 11:13:04 AM »

I feel like this could be like MO senate 2016

If polls were correct and Clinton had won Democrats likely would have picked up that seat.
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South Dakota Democrat
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« Reply #26 on: July 13, 2020, 11:37:49 AM »

I feel like this could be like MO senate 2016

If polls were correct and Clinton had won Democrats likely would have picked up that seat.

It's astounding how much better of a candidate Jason Kander was than Claire McCaskill.  Kander outran the top of his ticket by several points in an R-leaning presidential year, while McCaskill lost (and not in a squeaker, either, but by a relatively clear margin of 5-6 points) in a D-leaning midterm.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #27 on: July 13, 2020, 11:54:36 AM »

Lean R, Daines 51-47
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #28 on: July 13, 2020, 11:54:46 AM »
« Edited: July 13, 2020, 07:24:04 PM by Roll Roons »

I feel like this could be like MO senate 2016

If polls were correct and Clinton had won Democrats likely would have picked up that seat.

It's astounding how much better of a candidate Jason Kander was than Claire McCaskill.  Kander outran the top of his ticket by several points in an R-leaning presidential year, while McCaskill lost (and not in a squeaker, either, but by a relatively clear margin of 5-6 points) in a D-leaning midterm.

Had Kander somehow won at the same time as Hillary, I think donors would have immediately tried to recruit him for the presidential race. He could have done very well - Pete Buttigieg but less intellectually-oriented and with a much stronger electoral record.
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South Dakota Democrat
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« Reply #29 on: July 13, 2020, 12:07:15 PM »


There's really no evidence to support it being lean R.  You could argue that the state's partisan lean makes it so, but that argument is flawed because downballot Dems routinely outrun the top of the ticket in Montana (see both of Bullock's victories, Tester's victory in 2012, etc.)
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new_patomic
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« Reply #30 on: July 13, 2020, 12:21:42 PM »

In regards to the 2016 lean, isn't it not that uncommon for people to sort of lie on the margins as to how they voted depending on who ends up winning, or how popular they currently are?
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South Dakota Democrat
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« Reply #31 on: July 13, 2020, 12:23:45 PM »

In regards to the 2016 lean, isn't it not that uncommon for people to sort of lie on the margins as to how they voted depending on who ends up winning, or how popular they currently are?

Very true.  After JFK was assassinated, I think something like 90% of people claimed they voted for him. 
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new_patomic
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« Reply #32 on: July 13, 2020, 12:33:24 PM »

In regards to the 2016 lean, isn't it not that uncommon for people to sort of lie on the margins as to how they voted depending on who ends up winning, or how popular they currently are?

Very true.  After JFK was assassinated, I think something like 90% of people claimed they voted for him.  

Like obviously if the poll had respondents saying they voted for Hillary 46-44 that'd be highly suspect and certainly wrong.

But 36-52 doesn't seem especially off to me, given the circumstances.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #33 on: July 13, 2020, 01:36:25 PM »

Isnít the sample slightly skewed toward Dís? Trump got 56% of the vote in Ď16 but this poll has  him at 52%. Given thereís no influx of new voters to MT, it shouldnít be that way.

Anyway, tilt Bullock.

Bozeman is actually one of the fastest growing Cities of its size within the US.

https://www.insider.com/should-i-move-to-bozeman-montana-2020-3

It should be noted that Gallatin County (Which includes Bozeman) actually went 45-44 HRC>Trump vs 46>51 Romney in '12.
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VAR
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« Reply #34 on: July 13, 2020, 02:47:12 PM »

In regards to the 2016 lean, isn't it not that uncommon for people to sort of lie on the margins as to how they voted depending on who ends up winning, or how popular they currently are?

Very true.  After JFK was assassinated, I think something like 90% of people claimed they voted for him.  

Like obviously if the poll had respondents saying they voted for Hillary 46-44 that'd be highly suspect and certainly wrong.

But 36-52 doesn't seem especially off to me, given the circumstances.

This PPP poll of MT, conducted in March (when Trump had his rally Ďround flag bump), had it Trump 51-35. So while what youíre saying is a possibility, itís likely not the case.
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Left Wing
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« Reply #35 on: July 13, 2020, 02:51:29 PM »

The most polarizing figures in the Senate are Daines and McConnell that Ds dont like
Most people have no idea who Steve Daines is.
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SN2903
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« Reply #36 on: July 13, 2020, 02:53:36 PM »


There's really no evidence to support it being lean R.  You could argue that the state's partisan lean makes it so, but that argument is flawed because downballot Dems routinely outrun the top of the ticket in Montana (see both of Bullock's victories, Tester's victory in 2012, etc.)
Montana is a Likely R/Safe R state at the Presidential level. This is a presidential year. Turnout will likely be high on both sides as Trump is polarizing, obviously, that is why Daines is likely to pull it out in my opinion. High turnout in a red state favors Rs in a state leans that way.
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WD
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« Reply #37 on: July 13, 2020, 03:00:37 PM »


There's really no evidence to support it being lean R.  You could argue that the state's partisan lean makes it so, but that argument is flawed because downballot Dems routinely outrun the top of the ticket in Montana (see both of Bullock's victories, Tester's victory in 2012, etc.)
Montana is a Likely R/Safe R state at the Presidential level. This is a presidential year. Turnout will likely be high on both sides as Trump is polarizing, obviously, that is why Daines is likely to pull it out in my opinion. High turnout in a red state favors Rs in a state leans that way.

No, Bullock will outrun Biden by close to 20 points, itís Tilt D closer to Lean than tossup.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #38 on: July 13, 2020, 03:00:50 PM »

The most polarizing figures in the Senate are Daines and McConnell that Ds dont like
Most people have no idea who Steve Daines is.

That's the problem, he isnt seen that much and we they saw him, he defended Trump on impeachment
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #39 on: July 13, 2020, 03:01:39 PM »


There's really no evidence to support it being lean R.  You could argue that the state's partisan lean makes it so, but that argument is flawed because downballot Dems routinely outrun the top of the ticket in Montana (see both of Bullock's victories, Tester's victory in 2012, etc.)
Montana is a Likely R/Safe R state at the Presidential level. This is a presidential year. Turnout will likely be high on both sides as Trump is polarizing, obviously, that is why Daines is likely to pull it out in my opinion. High turnout in a red state favors Rs in a state leans that way.

Biden is ahead of Trump by 7 in a Rassy poll
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Xing
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« Reply #40 on: July 13, 2020, 03:17:44 PM »

Why did they only poll Missoula county (and only Garfield county for the gubernatorial race)?
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South Dakota Democrat
jrk26
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« Reply #41 on: July 13, 2020, 03:32:05 PM »


There's really no evidence to support it being lean R.  You could argue that the state's partisan lean makes it so, but that argument is flawed because downballot Dems routinely outrun the top of the ticket in Montana (see both of Bullock's victories, Tester's victory in 2012, etc.)
Montana is a Likely R/Safe R state at the Presidential level. This is a presidential year. Turnout will likely be high on both sides as Trump is polarizing, obviously, that is why Daines is likely to pull it out in my opinion. High turnout in a red state favors Rs in a state leans that way.

Yeah, let's just ignore what I said.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #42 on: July 13, 2020, 05:11:22 PM »


There's really no evidence to support it being lean R.  You could argue that the state's partisan lean makes it so, but that argument is flawed because downballot Dems routinely outrun the top of the ticket in Montana (see both of Bullock's victories, Tester's victory in 2012, etc.)
Montana is a Likely R/Safe R state at the Presidential level. This is a presidential year. Turnout will likely be high on both sides as Trump is polarizing, obviously, that is why Daines is likely to pull it out in my opinion. High turnout in a red state favors Rs in a state leans that way.

Look at 2012 Donnelly, McCaskill and Sherrod Brown all won when Obama beat Romney and those were Likely R states at Prez level.  And KS went D in 2018 for Gov, there is a flaw in your argument

Bollier, Bullock can win in a Prez year in Lean R states just like Brown, McCaskill,  Tester and Donnelly won in 2012 when Obama beat Romney.

Tester won in MT in 2012 as MT went R for Prez, too
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South Dakota Democrat
jrk26
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« Reply #43 on: July 13, 2020, 06:15:04 PM »


There's really no evidence to support it being lean R.  You could argue that the state's partisan lean makes it so, but that argument is flawed because downballot Dems routinely outrun the top of the ticket in Montana (see both of Bullock's victories, Tester's victory in 2012, etc.)
Montana is a Likely R/Safe R state at the Presidential level. This is a presidential year. Turnout will likely be high on both sides as Trump is polarizing, obviously, that is why Daines is likely to pull it out in my opinion. High turnout in a red state favors Rs in a state leans that way.

Look at 2012 Donnelly, McCaskill and Sherrod Brown all won when Obama beat Romney and those were Likely R states at Prez level.  And KS went D in 2018 for Gov, there is a flaw in your argument

Bollier, Bullock can win in a Prez year in Lean R states just like Brown, McCaskill,  Tester and Donnelly won in 2012 when Obama beat Romney.

Tester won in MT in 2012 as MT went R for Prez, too

This is correct.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #44 on: July 13, 2020, 07:14:23 PM »

I feel like this could be like MO senate 2016

If polls were correct and Clinton had won Democrats likely would have picked up that seat.

It's astounding how much better of a candidate Jason Kander was than Claire McCaskill.  Kander outran the top of his ticket by several points in an R-leaning presidential year, while McCaskill lost (and not in a squeaker, either, but by a relatively clear margin of 5-6 points) in a D-leaning midterm.

If Kander had ran in 2018 rather than in 2016, I think he would have pulled it off. That he came as close as he did in a year that Trump took the state by 19 points is itself very impressive.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #45 on: July 13, 2020, 10:32:34 PM »

Prediction:

PRES: Trump +7
SEN: Bullock +2
GOV: Gianforte +3
AL: Rosendale +3

Pretty close to spot-on, glad that I still have my finger on the state's #populism Purple heart. Not sure what it is with PPP finding weirdly Democratic-friendly numbers in the House race (this happened in 2012 as well), but either way, that race wonít be tied once Yellowstone County is reminded of Kathleen Williams' shrill neoliberal haircut.... er, I mean her ignorance of "kitchen-table issues." Smiley
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #46 on: July 13, 2020, 11:15:14 PM »

GOV race is close enough Ds can win it, Cooney needs to win, so Bullock can win
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #47 on: July 18, 2020, 10:17:59 PM »

New Poll: Montana Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2020-07-10

Summary: D: 46%, R: 44%, U: 10%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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