MT (PPP): Trump +9
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Author Topic: MT (PPP): Trump +9  (Read 1453 times)
Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
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« on: July 13, 2020, 09:01:36 AM »
Trump 51
Biden 42

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/polls/bullock-most-popular-montana-politician-narrowly-leads-daines/
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #1 on: July 13, 2020, 09:06:03 AM »
Seems consistent with a Biden lead of 8-14%, assuming uniform swings are a thing.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #2 on: July 13, 2020, 09:08:19 AM »
Quote from: libertpaulian on July 13, 2020, 09:06:03 AM
Seems consistent with a Biden lead of 8-14%, assuming uniform swings are a thing.


I would agree. Hillary Clinton got only 36% in Montana in 2016, so Biden is on track to at least replicate Obama's 2012 performance in the state. And Montana's significant swing against Trump will certainly help Bullock.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #3 on: July 13, 2020, 09:12:08 AM »
Fits with Montana's tendency to swing against incumbent presidents.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #4 on: July 13, 2020, 09:12:41 AM »
If Trump is only in single digits in MT, very easy to see how Bullock could pull out the win
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #5 on: July 13, 2020, 09:13:10 AM »
Not sure 7%

1224 voters
July 9-10, 2020
MoE: 2.8%
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #6 on: July 13, 2020, 09:14:42 AM »
Quote from: libertpaulian on July 13, 2020, 09:06:03 AM
Seems consistent with a Biden lead of 8-14%, assuming uniform swings are a thing.


Yep, if we're talking uniform swing, then that would put Biden up about 13% nationwide, which is interesting b/c we've now had numerous polls that make that NYT/Siena, CNN, etc. polls of Biden up +14 or right around there look not too crazy anymore
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YE
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« Reply #7 on: July 13, 2020, 09:23:33 AM »
Mfw a poll like this almost feels slightly disappointing.
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McGarnagle
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« Reply #8 on: July 13, 2020, 09:27:21 AM »
Trump won Montana by 20 four years ago, so him winning by 9 is bad news for him - still it'd be nice to see Montana turn blue

Bullock will likely outperform Biden in Montana
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BobbieMac
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« Reply #9 on: July 13, 2020, 09:28:48 AM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on July 13, 2020, 09:14:42 AM
Quote from: libertpaulian on July 13, 2020, 09:06:03 AM
Seems consistent with a Biden lead of 8-14%, assuming uniform swings are a thing.


Yep, if we're talking uniform swing, then that would put Biden up about 13% nationwide, which is interesting b/c we've now had numerous polls that make that NYT/Siena, CNN, etc. polls of Biden up +14 or right around there look not too crazy anymore

Definitely, this puts Biden at +13/14 nationally on UNS.

Interestingly, Montana has the second lowest Covid19 cases per capita in the US.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #10 on: July 13, 2020, 09:29:24 AM »
This poll has generated 538’s trendline for the state (currently at 10.5%).
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #11 on: July 13, 2020, 01:24:23 PM »
Looks about right.

I predicted Trump+8 for this poll and considering Trump's strong primary performance in MT, it won't get any closer than that.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #12 on: July 13, 2020, 06:10:30 PM »
I get that we have a competitive Senate race here that should be polled, but we are getting way too many polls of Montana that don't really tell us anything new other than a Trump under-performance here from 2016 of some sort or another. Can we get some quality polling of other states, please? Maybe Minnesota?
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #13 on: July 13, 2020, 10:37:48 PM »
A Trump/Bullock/Gianforte/Rosendale outcome would undoubtedly cement Montana's status as the only true #populist Purple heart state, as if that was ever in doubt. I’m so proud Cry
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #14 on: July 18, 2020, 09:41:54 PM »
New Poll: Montana President by Public Policy Polling on 2020-07-10

Summary: D: 42%, R: 51%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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