Defying U.S., China and Iran Near Trade and Military Partnership

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

SO. MUCH. WINNING.

Iran and China have quietly drafted a sweeping economic and security partnership that would clear the way for billions of dollars of Chinese investments in energy and other sectors, undercutting the Trump administration’s efforts to isolate the Iranian government because of its nuclear and military ambitions.

The partnership, detailed in an 18-page proposed agreement obtained by The New York Times, would vastly expand Chinese presence in banking, telecommunications, ports, railways and dozens of other projects. In exchange, China would receive a regular — and, according to an Iranian official and an oil trader, heavily discounted — supply of Iranian oil over the next 25 years.

The document also describes deepening military cooperation, potentially giving China a foothold in a region that has been a strategic preoccupation of the United States for decades. It calls for joint training and exercises, joint research and weapons development and intelligence sharing — all to fight “the lopsided battle with terrorism, drug and human trafficking and cross-border crimes.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/11/world/asia/china-iran-trade-military-deal.html

[dead0man]

they deserve each other

[CumbrianLefty]

Now, who could possibly have seen this coming?

[Lord Halifax]

Now, who could possibly have seen this coming?

It's to be expected that the enemies of America ally with China, but not necessarily a bad thing. We managed a Cold War against the Soviet Union with most of the world divided into two blocs and it worked out fine for the US. Bipolarity is a more stable system than hegemony, which tends to be attempted hegemony anyway, and it's certainly better for America than multipolarity. We just need a formalized alliance with India. The only bad thing is that it becomes more difficult to ditch Saudi-Arabia. Iran becoming a Chinese ally will make it impossible for Turkey to join the anti-American side and the Shia side of the Shia/Sunni divide is the weaker one.

US, India, Japan, South Korea, EU, Canada, Australia, Egypt, Israel and most of Latin America beats China, Russia, Pakistan, Iran (plus North Korea, Venezuela, Syria and other random pariah states). Indonesia may remain neutral, but if they pick a side it'll be the American. Vietnam isn't going to ally with China either.

[President Johnson]

Trump's so-called "America first" policy has been an "America alone" policy, that sounded great on a bumper sticker, but hasn't done anything good for anyone else beyond authoritarian countries. Unfortunately, Trump is incapable of understanding that. I'm optimistic though that Joe Biden as president will quickly revitalize the Western alliance and repair the damage. However, the Iran deal is probably dead on needs to be re-negotiated.

[jaymichaud]

Well they do say trash attracts trash

[Frodo]

Now, who could possibly have seen this coming?

It's to be expected that the enemies of America ally with China, but not necessarily a bad thing. We managed a Cold War against the Soviet Union with most of the world divided into two blocs and it worked out fine for the US. Bipolarity is a more stable system than hegemony, which tends to be attempted hegemony anyway, and it's certainly better for America than multipolarity. We just need a formalized alliance with India. The only bad thing is that it becomes more difficult to ditch Saudi-Arabia. Iran becoming a Chinese ally will make it impossible for Turkey to join the anti-American side and the Shia side of the Shia/Sunni divide is the weaker one.

US, India, Japan, South Korea, EU, Canada, Australia, Egypt, Israel and most of Latin America beats China, Russia, Pakistan, Iran (plus North Korea, Venezuela, Syria and other random pariah states). Indonesia may remain neutral, but if they pick a side it'll be the American. Vietnam isn't going to ally with China either.

Just to add a few other key states:

Thailand (like Indonesia) will remain neutral, but if forced to choose will likely go with China given the military junta sees its interests aligned with China's (unlike during the Cold War), and they do not regard them as a military threat the way Vietnam does, for instance.

And I do wonder about the Philippines.  Under Duterte who is shaping up to be the 21st century's strongman version of Ferdinand Marcos, it seems they would find more in common with China than with the United States.  And unlike Marcos, I doubt he would side with the world's pre-eminent democracy when he could be currying favor with a fellow strongman who is even closer, and whose country has traditionally had links with the Philippines before it became a Spanish colony. 

[Lord Halifax]

Now, who could possibly have seen this coming?

It's to be expected that the enemies of America ally with China, but not necessarily a bad thing. We managed a Cold War against the Soviet Union with most of the world divided into two blocs and it worked out fine for the US. Bipolarity is a more stable system than hegemony, which tends to be attempted hegemony anyway, and it's certainly better for America than multipolarity. We just need a formalized alliance with India. The only bad thing is that it becomes more difficult to ditch Saudi-Arabia. Iran becoming a Chinese ally will make it impossible for Turkey to join the anti-American side and the Shia side of the Shia/Sunni divide is the weaker one.

US, India, Japan, South Korea, EU, Canada, Australia, Egypt, Israel and most of Latin America beats China, Russia, Pakistan, Iran (plus North Korea, Venezuela, Syria and other random pariah states). Indonesia may remain neutral, but if they pick a side it'll be the American. Vietnam isn't going to ally with China either.

Just to add a few other key states:

Thailand (like Indonesia) will remain neutral, but if forced to choose will likely go with China given the military junta sees its interests aligned with China's (unlike during the Cold War), and they do not regard them as a military threat the way Vietnam does, for instance.

And I do wonder about the Philippines. Under Duterte who is shaping up to be the 21st century's strongman version of Ferdinand Marcos, it seems they would find more in common with China than with the United States. And unlike Marcos, I doubt he would side with the world's pre-eminent democracy when he could be currying favor with a fellow strongman who is even closer, and whose country has traditionally had links with the Philippines before it became a Spanish colony. 

Duterte is moving in that direction and it looks like China is willing to compromise on the South China Sea dispute and offer the Phillippines a deal.