Texas (UT-Tyler) - Biden +5

[emailking]

I guess the question then is if the numbers will revert back when the active cases go down.

[emailking]

I guess the question then is if the numbers will revert back when the active cases go down.

"Yeah summer 2020 was a pretty rough time. I lost my job because of COVID-induced economic chaos, my grandfather died from COVID, and my neighbor got saddled with thousands of dollars in medical bills from her COVID-induced hospital stay. But thankfully this was just another Trump scandal that I'll be able to forget about come next week, when I can tell pollsters I'm back to approving Donald Trump's performance as president."

I was being serious. We don't even know for sure if the bump is related to the cases, much less if it will hold 4 months from now.

[emailking]

The thing that you have to realize is that Texas polling is very inaccurate right now due to the pandemic.

A lot of people are not answering their phones because contact tracers keep calling everyone to try to tell them they may be infected with the virus. Nobody wants to hear that, and the people who want to hear that least of all are Republicans Trump supporters who believe that the virus is a hoax. Why waste your time talking to a contact tracer for a host virus?

So for this reason there are a lot fewer Trump supporters responding to polls at the moment than usual. So this poll is probably about 10 points too favorable for Biden, which means Trump is up by 5.

So Texas is safe Republican.

5 points up is lean, not safe.

[emailking]

I hope y’all know he’s joking. 

That makes more sense, haha. I fell for it. 😳