Scottish Parliament Election, 6th May 2021

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The main political development since then has been how the various national governments have reacted to the COVID-19 pandemic, with other issues (including the post-Brexit deal; which is sort of important but being ignored) being pushed to the background.  That has dramatically improved the position of the SNP: with Nicola Sturgeon's competent, careful, cautious approach to the pandemic (often re-opening things slightly behind England and enforcing mask use in shops and public transport before England) contrasts favourably to the more chaotic, slapdash approach south of the border.  Sturgeon's popularity ratings are incredibly high - remarkable for the leader of a three term government who'd been in office for six and a half years.  While a lot of this is a perception thing rather than a dramatically different approach; I think that perceived competence has made Scots more likely to follow government advice and also has improved the position of the SNP in the polls.

'Competent' is an interesting choice of word, given that the mortality statistics look remarkably similar to those in England, largely (it would appear) because the Scottish government followed the same murderously stupid policies regarding care homes as in England. A perception of competence, maybe. Though you have to wonder whether that can actually hold over the longer term, though that's not exactly a question unique to Scotland.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Scottish government makes a stupid and extremely serious mistake; does a panicked reverse-ferret. UK government (acting for England) makes the same mistake a little later, despite the warning: decides to plough grimly on. Intense small 'c' conservatism of Welsh government mean they avoid the error. Am I referring to certain aspects of pandemic response or to the A-level situation?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There is no reason to expect a sudden reversal in the parties fortune- their problems long predate Leonard and are more fundamental than any leader, especially one who gets the press coverage of a third part, can change by themselves- but it is probably a necessary move, if you can't make people recognise you after three years you're probably not ever going to do so.

Agree. He never struck me as a bad guy at all, but fundamentally he was not cut out for any sort of political leadership - as his failure to become a household name outside his own house demonstrates pretty clearly.* Unfair to blame him for the wider problem(s), but that shouldn't be used as a shield to ward off the obvious: that he was just a bit rubbish, really.

Anyway, back in 2017 he defeated Sarwar 56.7 to 43.3, with the bulk of that margin coming from affiliates - amongst the membership it was 51.8 to 48.2. This reflected the fact that though that contest was branded a Left/Right faction-fight there were other things going on: all of the unions lined up behind Leonard, except for Community (who do not have many members in Scotland). Yes, even USDAW.

As for the successor, we shall see, I guess. Not an easy job and therefore not an attractive one.

_{*Disagree with the argument that 'well that's because SLAB are the third party at Holyrood now'. Nonsense. Means there's less automatic profile, but does not take away significantly from the space to create a profile, as, well, the now former leader of the Scottish Conservatives did prior to the 2016 poll.}