Scottish Parliament Election, 6th May 2021

[EastAnglianLefty]

I think this is why the education row is potentially so dangerous for the SNP, as it is and always has been a Scottish responsibility, not something that can be put down to Westminster.

That said, English exam results are being released on Thursday and it's likely the process will be approximately as much of a disaster as it was north of the border, so if the SNP can somehow suggest that it would have been even worse if Johnson was in charge of it, then it might let them shift the story on to more favourable ground.

A lot will depend upon what the changes Sturgeon has committed to making actually involve. If they're substantial, the story probably goes away. If they're cosmetic and seen as such, then it could keep running.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Worth noting that Labour are up slightly in that poll since April, though still heavily down on 2016.

Also worth remembering that we have no idea of the accuracy of pandemic polling and the general record of most UK polling outside short campaigns isn't great anyway.

[EastAnglianLefty]

A question : why has DevoMax so often touted before the referendum not been revived. Surely it makes better sense for Nationalists and could be somewhat attractive to Scottish Labour in a reduced format?

Why would it be attractive to Scottish Labour? Scotland is less reliant on fiscal transfers than other traditionally Labour-voting areas of the UK, but it is somewhat reliant and Labour's representation and potential targets are concentrated in poorer bits of Scotland.

[EastAnglianLefty]

To nobody's great surprise, A-level results in England are also proving extremely controversial and it appears the process has been entirely mismanaged. Amongst other things, they've moderated the grades for larger school cohorts but haven't done so for larger cohorts, which has benefited private schools as they tend to have much smaller sixth forms. It's also being reported that where students successfully appeal, this will lead to another pupil in the same school having their grades lowered in turn, which isn't at all morally dubious...

Slightly more surprisingly, the SNP actually seems to want to make hay with this, rather than remaining silent and letting the Tories take the heat.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Yeah, I think the big issue with holding the exams anyway is that far more students would have failed, because they hadn't been adequately prepared for their exams. Students have been treated extremely unfairly, but that's only the first problem. The second problem is that they've had much less education than previous cohorts and this is going to have a continuing impact upon their academic careers and future employment if nothing is done about it (as seems probable.)

The problem is likely to be even worse for next year's cohort.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Depends which part of Scotland you're talking about. The SNP's traditional heartlands in NE Scotland were some of the most pro-Brexit parts of Scotland, whereas their new strongholds in the central belt were strongly in favour of Remain.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Fortissat is as close to a Labour bastion you can find.

Such is Scotland that the most rural ward in N Lanarkshire ends up being the biggest Labour bastion in the local authority.

North Lanarkshire is a mining area, though, and unlike in England former mining areas are still some of Labour's strongest areas (hence Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath being competitive, for example.) So rural/urban isn't necessarily the most informative frame to see things through.

[EastAnglianLefty]

I think the Lanarkshire mining areas are also some of the Orange Order's few remaining areas of strength in Scotland too, which obviously has an effect on constitutional opinions. Not true of the Fife coalfield so far as I'm aware, but I might be wrong on that.

[EastAnglianLefty]

But entryism implies people joining. Lanarkshire Labour has had sectarian elements (both Protestant and Catholic) for as long as there's been a Labour Party.

[EastAnglianLefty]

I think the Lanarkshire mining areas are also some of the Orange Order's few remaining areas of strength in Scotland too, which obviously has an effect on constitutional opinions. Not true of the Fife coalfield so far as I'm aware, but I might be wrong on that.

Did these areas vote against devolution?

Nowhere voted against in 1997 and what opposition there was was concentrated in the North East, Perthshire and the Borders (ie the bits where the Tories were strongest, although most of them were also strong SNP areas and seem to have had lower turnout, so maybe some SNP supporters boycotted?)

In 1979 I can only see results by region, which isn't granular enough to tell. I wouldn't be surprised, given that the turnout threshold for the 1979 referendum was imposed due to the actions of Labour MPs representing such areas and given that mining areas were the traditional stronghold of Labour anti-devolution sentiment in Wales.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Seems odd for a no confidence vote to be called before she's actually given evidence. Probably means it's more likely the SNP will act in unison on this, than if they'd had another day of bad blood being aired in which to damage themselves?

[EastAnglianLefty]

The threshold to get a list seat in the various regions is about 5-6%. The SNP list vote in 2016 was about 40%. About 15% of the Scottish electorate have a favourable opinion of Alex Salmond.

I think the most likely outcome is that Alba wins an MSP or two, although that's as likely to hurt the Greens as it is the unionist parties. It would be surprising if they're able to elect a second MSP from any region though.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Speaking of which, Neale Hanvey has also defected.

[EastAnglianLefty]

It's not a large proportion of the area's population, but about 40% of Jews in Scotland live in East Renfrewshire, which presumably means those comments will have more of an impact.