Scottish Parliament Election, 6th May 2021

[Lord Halifax]

And why did Salmond name the party Alba and Caledonia? Alba is whole of Britain

It means Scotland in Gaelic.

"Historically, the term refers to Britain as a whole and is ultimately based on the Indo-European root for "white".[2] It later came to be used by Gaelic speakers in the form of Alba (dative Albainn, genitive Albann, now obsolete) as the name given to the former kingdom of the Picts which when first used in this sense (around the time of king Causantín mac Áeda (Constantine II, 943–952)) had expanded."

[afleitch]

And England in Scots Gaelic is 'Sasainn'; Saxon as opposed to Angle.

[Conservatopia]

So what exactly are the policy differences between the SNP and Alba? Are there any substantial differences at all? Does Alba have any unique selling points that would actually motivate any SNP voters to defect besides the big ego of Salmond?

My understanding is that Salmond (i don’t know whether this is official Alba ‘party policy’), wants to push the SNP in the direction of adopting a new currency as soon as practicable after a putatively successful independence vote. At the moment, as far as I can make out, the SNP’s official policy is to continue using sterling after independence, but without remaining in monetary union with the UK (something ruled out by the British government years ago). The transition to a new currency will only take place once six economic ‘tests’ (fiscal sustainability, sufficient reserves, good economic environment etc) have been passed. This could take a long time and as far as I’m aware the SNP membership actually voted at conference for a much more rapid transition to a new currency along the lines proposed by Salmond. Needless to say, both of these options are fraught with risk (the former, so-called ‘sterlingisation’, has only been adopted historically by less developed countries when their own currencies have been devalued to almost nothing), but they’re the only options on the table if the UK government holds the line on saying no to monetary union.

Of course, if Scotland plans to rejoin the EU as an independent state then Euro membership will be a necessity, so the above won’t matter very much in the long run, although that depends on how long the application process for the EU takes.

And why did Salmond name the party Alba and Caledonia? Alba is whole of Britain

You might be thinking of "Albion".

[ElectionObserver]

The SNP really seems to have rebound from the whole Salmond thing last month. Given the polls released in the last couple of days from reputable companies (Ipsos-Mori, Panelbase and now Opinium), an SNP majority is looking more likely than not.

Still a month until the election, but postal voting applications in Scotland closed a couple of days ago and local government electoral services departments will be posting out ballot papers from the middle of next week. Postal votes have been applied for by about a quarter of the electorate who will make up more than a third of voters.

I'm not sure much is going to change either. Scottish Labour continue to appear as though they are on death's door even with their new leader*. The SNP have taken their lunch and they have no idea how to get it back. Who knows - perhaps the SNP have already eaten it?
The Conservatives are trying to rerun their 2016/ 2017/ 2019 election campaigns with the SNP and independence bogeyman, but it really does show the law of diminishing returns.

The figures are here:
Opinium for Sky News (1/4-6/4) (Constituency / List). Changes from mid-March when the SNP reached their lowest point in the polls.
SNP 53% (+7)  /  44% (+2)
Conservatives 21% (-3)  /  22% (-)
Labour 18% (-2)  /  17% (-2)
Liberal Democrats 6% (1)  /  5% (-)
Green (No Data Given)  /  7% (-)
Alba  (Not standing in constituencies)  /  2% (New)

There was a TV debate the other day. This is what the poll says on how well the leaders did. *Surprisingly well for Labour I think.
''Mr Sarwar (Labour) is also seen as having done a good job in the debate where 62% think he did well and 28% badly, whereas Ross (Conservative) is seen to have done badly with 28% saying he did well and 62% badly among those who watched or saw highlights.
However, Ms Sturgeon (SNP) is still seen to have performed best with 67% well and 27% badly''.

The UK Westminster election numbers are:
SNP - 50%
Conservative - 24%
Labour - 19%
Lib Dem - 4%
Under FPTP, the SNP would win the vast majority of seats like they did in 2019.

[StateBoiler]

The AMS system has always been a horrendous one which was obviously open to gaming. Anyway, it would be very easy to solve the problem of shell parties running on the list. That's by getting rid of the second ballot paper and just counting a party's total vote in each region from the first ballot paper. It would have the additional benefit of encouraging more parties to stand in each constituency and for them to campaign harder making elections more competitive. It would also make setting up splinter/ minor parties more difficult (which is an advantage IMO.

I like the idea.

[beesley]

It would also make setting up splinter/ minor parties more difficult (which is an advantage IMO.

It would also effectively disqualify independent candidates from being elected on the list, since it would be unlikely for them to get enough votes in one constituency to lose but still enough to be elected on the list. Though I am not a maths whizz.


Anyway, if you're interested in how the count is going to work this year, this article from the National explains how results should come in on the Friday and Saturday. - https://www.thenational.scot/news/19224706.mays-scottish-parliament-elections-results-expected-days-polls-close/

The gist is that the larger counts (e.g. Edinburgh) will count half their constituencies on the Friday and the other half on the Saturday to allow for social distancing. Generally all the constituencies in one local authority area count in one location with one returning officer, though I believe in Fife Dunfermline is counted separately to the others. Obviously the counting rooms packed with cheering activists are to be absent from this election. It goes without saying that the regional list votes will declare last as after a constituency's list vote is only counted after the declaration of that constituency.

BBC Scotland are doing a special results programme on both Friday and Saturday afternoons, so we shall still get our fix of Glenn Campbell.

[Tintrlvr]

So what exactly are the policy differences between the SNP and Alba? Are there any substantial differences at all? Does Alba have any unique selling points that would actually motivate any SNP voters to defect besides the big ego of Salmond?

My understanding is that Salmond (i don’t know whether this is official Alba ‘party policy’), wants to push the SNP in the direction of adopting a new currency as soon as practicable after a putatively successful independence vote. At the moment, as far as I can make out, the SNP’s official policy is to continue using sterling after independence, but without remaining in monetary union with the UK (something ruled out by the British government years ago). The transition to a new currency will only take place once six economic ‘tests’ (fiscal sustainability, sufficient reserves, good economic environment etc) have been passed. This could take a long time and as far as I’m aware the SNP membership actually voted at conference for a much more rapid transition to a new currency along the lines proposed by Salmond. Needless to say, both of these options are fraught with risk (the former, so-called ‘sterlingisation’, has only been adopted historically by less developed countries when their own currencies have been devalued to almost nothing), but they’re the only options on the table if the UK government holds the line on saying no to monetary union.

Of course, if Scotland plans to rejoin the EU as an independent state then Euro membership will be a necessity, so the above won’t matter very much in the long run, although that depends on how long the application process for the EU takes.

And why did Salmond name the party Alba and Caledonia? Alba is whole of Britain

You might be thinking of "Albion".

They both come from the same root in Greek and meant the entire island of Britain originally, although I agree Scottish Gaelic has for a long time used "Alba" to mean only Scotland (and in some historical instances only the Highlands).

[Cassius]

https://youtu.be/WoRfxS5esRc

Finally, a truly blessed party political broadcast.

[afleitch]

Meanwhile:

https://mobile.twitter.com/jamesarchie98/status/1382252016571924480

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/SundayTimesSco/status/1383707131665285129?s=20

Eastwood, currently held by Jackson Carlaw for the Conservatives, is the seat in question.

[EastAnglianLefty]

It's not a large proportion of the area's population, but about 40% of Jews in Scotland live in East Renfrewshire, which presumably means those comments will have more of an impact.

[Frodo]

So what's the likelihood the SNP can win the 69 seat majority it had in 2011, if not higher? 

[CumbrianLefty]

There must be a chance on current poll figures, the big question will be if the SNP undershoot those on the day (which is indeed what happened in 2016)

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

There must be a chance on current poll figures, the big question will be if the SNP undershoot those on the day (which is indeed what happened in 2016)

Especially considering the gap between how Labour is currently polling and Sarwar's very good approval ratings (and Ross's very bad ones)...

[afleitch]

There must be a chance on current poll figures, the big question will be if the SNP undershoot those on the day (which is indeed what happened in 2016)

Especially considering the gap between how Labour is currently polling and Sarwar's very good approval ratings...

To be fair his approvals are high because there's a huge 'don't know response at the moment.' But he's hsd the best reception, especially in comparison to his Tory counterpart as a Labour leader in years.

65 seats are a majority. There are 73 constituencies. If other parties only win 8 of those, the SNP can get a majority on that alone. Very approximately the SNP would have all but 10 of those seats based on the 2019 pattern of votes with a 45% share so would need two more to do it, or on the list.

Been a bit of a post Philip poll drought and no polls conducted since 12th April.

As for polling error as much as the SNP undershot in 2016, they overshot in 2019. So it's best not to hedge bets either way.

[Frodo]

I guess this answers my earlier question:

Scottish election 2021: Hopes for SNP majority continue to fade as more support slips away, shows poll
SNP hopes of a majority at next month’s Holyrood elections continue to fade as another poll shows the party is set to narrowly miss out on returning more than 65 MSPs.

Also, if you push the undecideds, there is actually a narrow majority against independence. 

[afleitch]

I guess this answers my earlier question:

Scottish election 2021: Hopes for SNP majority continue to fade as more support slips away, shows poll
SNP hopes of a majority at next month’s Holyrood elections continue to fade as another poll shows the party is set to narrowly miss out on returning more than 65 MSPs.

Also, if you push the undecideds, there is actually a narrow majority against independence. 

Sort of. There's a YouGov poll that's much better for the SNP.

On indy, there has been narrowing and now reversal. It's possible that there's a vaccine rollout boost for 'the union'; the same energy that's keeping the Tories popular nationwide. It's possible that Salmond on the scene has went down like a cup of cold sick with soft Yes voters.

[Frodo]

I recall reading in an opinion page suggesting that one way the United Kingdom government could cut the legs out from under the Scottish independence movement is to offer Scotland the opportunity to join the European Single Market:

There is, however, a halfway house that London could offer Scotland. It is clear that, whatever the UK may gain from leaving the EU, the cost of leaving Europe’s single market is crippling. The current disruption may tail off but the idea of an economic or commercial benefit from leaving the single market seems absurd. Not a week passes without some new lunacy on border controls, migrant workers, supply chains or bureaucracy. The “hardness” of Brexit was a thoughtless gimmick by a bunch of cronies to seize control of the Conservatives.

If imaginative thinking could be found, perhaps a way to placate some of the discontent, then, is for Scotland to join the two Irelands in that existing single market. It need not leave the UK or join the EU. It would form with Ireland an economic “Celtic crescent” across the Irish Sea. Belfast would trade freely with Glasgow, Edinburgh with Rotterdam and Hamburg. Scotland’s economy would remain open to Europe and doubtless draw new investments and business as a result.

One price is obvious. There would have to be some sort of customs barrier north of Hadrian’s Wall. There would be checks and there would be bureaucracy – as now between Norway and Sweden. But that is England’s fault for rejecting single market status. The Cheviot Hills could be a more manageable border than the still putative one on the island of Ireland.

How likely is that?  It seems a reasonable compromise to me.    

[ElectionObserver]

I recall reading in an opinion page suggesting that one way the United Kingdom government could cut the legs out from under the Scottish independence movement is to offer Scotland the opportunity to join the European Single Market:

There is, however, a halfway house that London could offer Scotland. It is clear that, whatever the UK may gain from leaving the EU, the cost of leaving Europe’s single market is crippling. The current disruption may tail off but the idea of an economic or commercial benefit from leaving the single market seems absurd. Not a week passes without some new lunacy on border controls, migrant workers, supply chains or bureaucracy. The “hardness” of Brexit was a thoughtless gimmick by a bunch of cronies to seize control of the Conservatives.

If imaginative thinking could be found, perhaps a way to placate some of the discontent, then, is for Scotland to join the two Irelands in that existing single market. It need not leave the UK or join the EU. It would form with Ireland an economic “Celtic crescent” across the Irish Sea. Belfast would trade freely with Glasgow, Edinburgh with Rotterdam and Hamburg. Scotland’s economy would remain open to Europe and doubtless draw new investments and business as a result.

One price is obvious. There would have to be some sort of customs barrier north of Hadrian’s Wall. There would be checks and there would be bureaucracy – as now between Norway and Sweden. But that is England’s fault for rejecting single market status. The Cheviot Hills could be a more manageable border than the still putative one on the island of Ireland.

How likely is that?  It seems a reasonable compromise to me.    

It's less likely than independence, that's for sure.
The current Johnson administration is very much 'one-nation' not just in reference to Toryism, but also in reference to the union. Their march towards a single British market will remove powers from the Scottish government rather than add.

I personally think it's a big mistake and is probably the greatest gift to nationalists, but that's the way we are heading.

I know some will disagree, but the only way to save the union is to look again at how the UK works and how the governments of the UK work/ interact with each other.

[afleitch]

Yes.

We have a very anti-devolution government under Boris, tghe most under any administration. It's clear (and this isn't just hyperbole) that there is an undercurrent of disdain for both Scotland and Northern Ireland.

[Frodo]

I guess this answers my earlier question:

Scottish election 2021: Hopes for SNP majority continue to fade as more support slips away, shows poll
SNP hopes of a majority at next month’s Holyrood elections continue to fade as another poll shows the party is set to narrowly miss out on returning more than 65 MSPs.

Also, if you push the undecideds, there is actually a narrow majority against independence.  

Sort of. There's a YouGov poll that's much better for the SNP.

On indy, there has been narrowing and now reversal. It's possible that there's a vaccine rollout boost for 'the union'; the same energy that's keeping the Tories popular nationwide. It's possible that Salmond on the scene has went down like a cup of cold sick with soft Yes voters.

I don't know about YouGov, but Survation is indeed showing much better results for the SNP, and Scottish Labour. And much to my satisfaction, Alex Salmond is proving to be less popular than PM Boris Johnson:

Election 2021: SNP 'on course for five-seat majority with Labour in second'

A fresh survey of voting intentions and the popularity of party leaders suggests the SNP is on course to win a five-seat majority at Holyrood – with the Scottish Greens the biggest threat of denying Nicola Sturgeon’s party total control.  

Scottish Labour are set to climb to second place above the conservatives – but Mr Salmond’s attempt to return to politics is set to crash and burn with voters unimpressed with his Alba party.  

The poll also found that support for Scottish independence remains on a knife-edge, with 51% opposed and 49% in favour. However, the numbers are flipped to 2% in favour of ‘Yes’ when people were asked if Scotland was allowed to rejoin the EU after leaving the UK.

Projections based on the survey, carried out for The Sunday Post by polling company Survation, suggests the SNP will win 67 seats, giving Nicola Sturgeon a majority of five at Holyrood.

Scottish Labour is projected to win 24 seats, the same number the party won in the last Holyrood election, with the Scottish Tories coming third with 22 seats, nine fewer than they won in 2016.

[Geoffrey Howe]

The Spectator has mooted the idea of Anas Sarwar unseating Nicola Sturgeon in Glasgow Southside.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/is-nicola-sturgeon-in-for-a-scare-in-her-own-seat-

[ElectionObserver]

The Spectator has mooted the idea of Anas Sarwar unseating Nicola Sturgeon in Glasgow Southside.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/is-nicola-sturgeon-in-for-a-scare-in-her-own-seat-

Simply not going to happen. For anyone not aware, The Spectator is a strongly unionist and anti-SNP magazine and even they concede she will hang on.

Back in 2016, she won with 61% of the vote and in 2011 with 54% of the vote. Labour were second both times with 23% and 35% respectively.

Sturgeon will be elected with a majority of at least a couple of thousand votes on a bad night.

[Geoffrey Howe]

The Spectator has mooted the idea of Anas Sarwar unseating Nicola Sturgeon in Glasgow Southside.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/is-nicola-sturgeon-in-for-a-scare-in-her-own-seat-

Simply not going to happen. For anyone not aware, The Spectator is a strongly unionist and anti-SNP magazine and even they concede she will hang on.

Back in 2016, she won with 61% of the vote and in 2011 with 54% of the vote. Labour were second both times with 23% and 35% respectively.

Sturgeon will be elected with a majority of at least a couple of thousand votes on a bad night.

Scotland isn't exactly immune to crazy swings; but yes, this is a pipe-dream.

[CumbrianLefty]

Not impossible - this isn't an actual prediction, mind - that Sarwar could lift up Labour's vote a bit in Glasgow more generally. Which might mean a few SNP constituency seats at least becoming fairly close - but of course I agree that Sturgeon's own patch won't be one of them.