North Carolina and how most are wrong

[Vern]

I believe on election night many people will be shocked by the results of NC. North Carolina for many election cycles have trended leftward. Then in 2016, it stop and was pretty much a wash. As a life time resident let me example why.

In Oct of 2016 Hurricane Matthew came through NC and caused historical flooding to the eastern NC

https://www.weather.gov/images/ilm/climate/annual/2016_SepOctRainfall.png

Take a look at this map that shows where the floods took place.

If you know anything about NC you know the Eastern part where the flooding took place is ver democratic. But in 2016 it trended to the right, why? Well that is because many counties were still dealing with damage from the floods and polling places had to be moved.

I believe that cause many democratic voters to not turn out. Now, 2020 will be a different story. I believe eastern NC will swing heavy back to the Democrats.

This is why I strongly believe the NC will end up voting to the left of states like GA, AZ and FL.

[Hammy]

I'm an avid hurricane tracker but wow, I had no idea the rain there was that bad away from the immediate coast.

[ProudModerate2]

Interesting.
I believe your research.
The only question is will it be enough for Biden to win the state. Let's hope it will be.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Presidential PVI of North Carolina:

2000: +13.35% R
2004: +9.98% R
2008: +6.94% R
2012: +5.9% R
2016: +5.75% R

Even if there was depressed turnout in heavily Democratic areas, the state still trended left. If your theory is correct, 2016 probably would have been about +4.5% R, and 2020 could be +3% R.

I think that if Biden wins by more than 5% nationally, he won't have much trouble flipping the Tar Heel State.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I have always felt like the 2016 results in NC seemed a bit weird considering Clinton performed decently in other simillar sunbelt states like VA, GA, FL, TX, and AZ.

[Chips]

Biden could flip NC. Like you said it would involve Biden getting heavy turnout in the eastern part of the state.

[ottermax]

If I recall correctly didn't NC have record high turnout numbers though? Could this just be due to increased voter registration from pop. growth? I don't remember seeing a decrease in Democratic votes compared to 2012 in the data.

[MARGINS6729]

If I recall correctly didn't NC have record high turnout numbers though? Could this just be due to increased voter registration from pop. growth? I don't remember seeing a decrease in Democratic votes compared to 2012 in the data.

Probably population growth.

[Vern]

Bumping this so we can laugh at it or praise how I was right.   

[ProudModerate2]

vern,
I saw this article and was thinking of you.
Thought I would post the link here, just in case you (and others) had interest in wanting to read it.

https://us.cnn.com/2020/10/27/opinions/north-carolina-democratic-voters-motivation-hamilton/index.html

[politics_king]

I think in general, just so much Anti-Trump sentiment that people rather just get him out of there and the GOP will try to regroup and run a "normal" candidate. But I doubt that'll happen, Trumpism will be here probably for the next decade in the GOP.

[Non Swing Voter]

Interesting.  But those counties don't look heavily populated?

Isn't the bigger issue the massive growth in Charlotte and the Research Triangle counties?  The reason I am bullish on NC this year is because they are turning out at massive numbers.  Some of those counties are almost at 100% of their 2016 totals.  This state is a much easier lift than Texas so 130% turnout in Democratic areas would probably be enough right?

[GeneralMacArthur]

North Carolina swung 3.86% left between 2016 and 2018.

[TheLaRocca]

Yeah, this is possible.

I never understood 2016 in NC? Trump winning by 3 (and more than in Florida b 2 points) seemed weird given Virginia. I would have expected a Trump win by about 1% last time.

[Stockdale for Veep]

Cal ruining everything is the only thing I am "dooming" about.

[S019ian Liberal]

North Carolina swung 3.86% left between 2016 and 2018.

They had no statewide races in 2018

[GeneralMacArthur]

North Carolina swung 3.86% left between 2016 and 2018.

They had no statewide races in 2018

Aggregate vote for Dem state house candidates vs. Republican state house candidates, vs. same metric in 2016.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

I have always felt like the 2016 results in NC seemed a bit weird considering Clinton performed decently in other simillar sunbelt states like VA, GA, FL, TX, and AZ.

VA trended 3 points to the left, GA trended 5 points to the left, TX trended 10 points to the left in 2016, yet NC was static. What a weird result 2016 was in NC. The research triangle is booming, and is growing faster than Atlanta.

[Gone to Carolina]

I have always felt like the 2016 results in NC seemed a bit weird considering Clinton performed decently in other simillar sunbelt states like VA, GA, FL, TX, and AZ.

VA trended 3 points to the left, GA trended 5 points to the left, TX trended 10 points to the left in 2016, yet NC was static. What a weird result 2016 was in NC. The research triangle is booming, and is growing faster than Atlanta.

I don't think our results were that anomalous when you look at the bigger picture. The Triangle, while we're rapidly growing we do not dominate the state in the same fashion as the Atlanta metro. Additionally there's countertrends to consider, Obama was doing far better with uneducated whites in North Carolina than he was in Georgia or Texas.

Consider Yancey County, which went from McCain +6 -> Romney +14 -> Trump +32. The collapse in uneducated white support was easily enough to cancel out any swing towards Clinton from educated whites.

One final thing with the stagnation of trends in North Carolina, broadly I would expect it to continue, growth in North Carolina is not nearly as one sided as say Georgia. Many non-metro counties in NC are still growing appreciably. Look at fast-growing Brunswick County in the Southeast part of the state. While it cast 11k more votes in 2016 than 2012 this was not to Clinton's advantage as Trump's vote count totaled 8k more than Romney's while Clinton only gained 1k over Obama.

Looking to this election for a moment, I think we'll probably vote for Joe this go around, but if we do it's not a result of trends in the same fashion as Georgia or Texas. An average of Biden and Trump's performance among racial demographics in all polls taken since the convention (converting this to a two-party vote) shows Biden making a 16% gain over Clinton among uneducated whites, vs. a 2% loss with educated whites. Now I'm not sure I believe that latter bit and it's certainly possible that the Center for American Progress' educated white number for Clinton was too high. But even accounting for that, it seems NC's shifts in racial demographics have far more in common with Iowa or Wisconsin (whose polls tend to show larger gains for Biden among uneducated whites than educated) than Georgia (which shows most Democratic inroads coming from educated whites).

[Gone to Carolina]

Adding this image to showcase NC (and interestingly Arizona) having uneducated white defection rates more akin to the Midwest than the rest of the Sunbelt.

[Vern]

Well at least I was right about FL! Haha

[Pericles]

Hopefully the late votes can swing it, but I know this is very unlikely.

[King of Kensington]

The influence of the Research Triangle is exaggerated I think.  Raleigh metro is only about 12% of the state population.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

The influence of the Research Triangle is exaggerated I think.  Raleigh metro is only about 12% of the state population.

It's more than that. Raleigh-Durham (you have to include both) is 18% of NC.
For comparison, Charlotte is 21% of NC and the Triad is 17% of NC.

[Roronoa D. Law]

The influence of the Research Triangle is exaggerated I think.  Raleigh metro is only about 12% of the state population.

It's more than that. Raleigh-Durham (you have to include both) is 18% of NC.
For comparison, Charlotte is 21% of NC and the Triad is 17% of NC.

I was about to say the same thing. Georgia and North Carolina are almost even in populations but NC is more spread out. Charlotte, Raleigh-Durham, and Triad metro areas are equal to the same size as Atlanta Metro so they both take up 55-58% of their state's population.

While I'm not sure. I think Charlotte, Triangle, and Triad is more Democratic than Atlanta Metro. The problem is NC without Charlotte, Triangle, and Triad is more Republican than Georgia without Atlanta.