AL (Auburn University) - Trump +14
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  AL (Auburn University) - Trump +14
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Author Topic: AL (Auburn University) - Trump +14  (Read 1807 times)
Lisa's voting Biden
LCameronAL
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« on: July 10, 2020, 11:18:04 AM »

Trump - 55
Biden - 41

558 RV, July 2-9
http://aum.edu/new-aum-poll-shows-tuberville-leading-sessions-senate-runoff-election
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soundchaser
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« Reply #1 on: July 10, 2020, 11:24:31 AM »

I know polls in deep red states tend to underestimate Republicans, but this would be a pretty devastating swing away from Trump.
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An American Tail: Fubart Goes West
Fubart Solman
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« Reply #2 on: July 10, 2020, 11:24:50 AM »

Trump won AL by 27.7% in 2016.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #3 on: July 10, 2020, 11:27:01 AM »

MoE: 5%
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Roronoa D. Law
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« Reply #4 on: July 10, 2020, 11:35:14 AM »

Wouldn't be surprised if Trump got the same % as Ivey.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #5 on: July 10, 2020, 11:40:04 AM »

Full poll attached here: http://www.aum.edu/sites/default/files/AUM_Topline_Results_July2020_Final.pdf

MoE actually 5.1%
567 registered voters

Other 4%
Don't know 1%
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #6 on: July 10, 2020, 11:59:18 AM »

We get an AL poll but no MA or KS poll, geezer to see the primaries
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OneJ
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« Reply #7 on: July 10, 2020, 12:11:53 PM »

I doubt the swing would be this big, but the Deep South could look relatively interesting this year.
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GlobeSoc
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« Reply #8 on: July 10, 2020, 12:47:33 PM »

This scenario would represent a replication of al-gov plus a coronavirus penalty for Trump. Not too implausible
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
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« Reply #9 on: July 10, 2020, 01:32:22 PM »

I know polls in deep red states tend to underestimate Republicans, but this would be a pretty devastating swing away from Trump.

They underestimate margins, but usually the Democratic numbers themselves aren't inflated. A Democrat cracking 40% in AL would be really something, not sure it's possible.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #10 on: July 10, 2020, 02:59:10 PM »

I know polls in deep red states tend to underestimate Republicans, but this would be a pretty devastating swing away from Trump.

They underestimate margins, but usually the Democratic numbers themselves aren't inflated. A Democrat cracking 40% in AL would be really something, not sure it's possible.

I mean, Maddox cracked 40% in 2018
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #11 on: July 10, 2020, 03:07:46 PM »

I know polls in deep red states tend to underestimate Republicans, but this would be a pretty devastating swing away from Trump.

They underestimate margins, but usually the Democratic numbers themselves aren't inflated. A Democrat cracking 40% in AL would be really something, not sure it's possible.

I mean, Maddox cracked 40% in 2018

But a presidential candidate hasn't in 20 years.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #12 on: July 10, 2020, 03:09:59 PM »


Alabama will be one of the five strongest states for Trump this fall... and that result (55 Trump, 41 Biden) exposes the weaknesses of the Trump campaign nationwide. The states in which he is likely to do that well are all electorally-small.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #13 on: July 10, 2020, 03:12:20 PM »

I know polls in deep red states tend to underestimate Republicans, but this would be a pretty devastating swing away from Trump.

They underestimate margins, but usually the Democratic numbers themselves aren't inflated. A Democrat cracking 40% in AL would be really something, not sure it's possible.

I mean, Maddox cracked 40% in 2018

But a presidential candidate hasn't in 20 years.

when will people get it through their head that 2020 is not a typical presidential election year? i'm not specifically attacking you, but this whole "this state hasn't had a democratic senator in 70 years", "this state hasn't given Dems 40% in 20 years". Those really have no bearing this year. Crazier things have happened. Just because it hasn't happened in decades doesn't mean it can't happen this year. And much like the KS example, this is the same with AL - people keep ignoring 2018 happened, despite the fact that this election is looking awfully like 2018 on numerous levels.
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Darthpi Ė Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #14 on: July 10, 2020, 03:50:12 PM »

If Biden somehow holds Trump under 60% in Alabama that would suggest a pretty substantial Biden win nationally.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #15 on: July 10, 2020, 04:21:02 PM »

Canít wait until Mason-Dixon starts dropping polls from the South after Labor Day ...

Iím weary about university polls, but itís nonetheless a good trend for Biden.
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Rookie Yinzer
RFKFan68
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« Reply #16 on: July 10, 2020, 07:28:59 PM »

I know polls in deep red states tend to underestimate Republicans, but this would be a pretty devastating swing away from Trump.

They underestimate margins, but usually the Democratic numbers themselves aren't inflated. A Democrat cracking 40% in AL would be really something, not sure it's possible.

I mean, Maddox cracked 40% in 2018

But a presidential candidate hasn't in 20 years.
Obama got 39 and 38 percent and Biden will almost certainly do better with the more reliable bloc of college educated white women. Nothing about Biden hitting 40 is a stretch.
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Obama-Biden Democrat
Zyzz
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« Reply #17 on: July 10, 2020, 07:58:02 PM »

Doin' the douggie.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #18 on: July 11, 2020, 12:36:29 PM »

Opa!
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #19 on: July 11, 2020, 01:14:31 PM »

Canít wait until Mason-Dixon starts dropping polls from the South after Labor Day ...

Iím weary about university polls, but itís nonetheless a good trend for Biden.

Ds dont have to win South, the election probably gets closer by election day
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Badger
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« Reply #20 on: July 12, 2020, 07:39:42 PM »

Chalk some of this up to MoE, and at least as much to that these so-called undecideds will break heavily Republican, and it is a drop of only a few points from 2016.

Just wishful thinking here, but if Biden does break 40%, does that give ANY realistic hope for Jones?
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #21 on: July 12, 2020, 07:44:16 PM »

Chalk some of this up to MoE, and at least as much to that these so-called undecideds will break heavily Republican, and it is a drop of only a few points from 2016.

Just wishful thinking here, but if Biden does break 40%, does that give ANY realistic hope for Jones?

I don't think so, but it could be within single digits. Biden needs to hit 45% for Jones to have a shot of actually winning, and that's probably impossible unless he's winning by an insane amount in the popular vote.
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Badger
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« Reply #22 on: July 12, 2020, 07:49:50 PM »

Chalk some of this up to MoE, and at least as much to that these so-called undecideds will break heavily Republican, and it is a drop of only a few points from 2016.

Just wishful thinking here, but if Biden does break 40%, does that give ANY realistic hope for Jones?

I don't think so, but it could be within single digits. Biden needs to hit 45% for Jones to have a shot of actually winning, and that's probably impossible unless he's winning by an insane amount in the popular vote.

Yeah, that's what I thought. I just needed a reality check. Sad

Oh well. Hopefully Jones will get picked by Biden for attorney general
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #23 on: July 18, 2020, 09:46:04 PM »

New Poll: Alabama President by Other Source on 2020-07-09

Summary: D: 41%, R: 55%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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