Final RCP average
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Poll
Question: Who does better than the RCP average in terms of outperforming the margin
#1
Biden		  
#2
Trump		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 87

Author Topic: Final RCP average  (Read 2546 times)
SaneDemocrat
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« on: July 10, 2020, 10:17:41 AM »
I think Biden does. That's my controversial take of the election.

RCP Biden+6.8
Actual Biden+7.5
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Rep Jessica
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« Reply #1 on: July 10, 2020, 10:19:11 AM »
RCP Biden+2.4
Actual Biden+1.5
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MR DARK BRANDON
Liam
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« Reply #2 on: July 10, 2020, 10:23:57 AM »
No
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MR DARK BRANDON
Liam
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« Reply #3 on: July 10, 2020, 10:24:21 AM »
RCP Biden +6.7
Actual Biden +5.5
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #4 on: July 10, 2020, 10:29:27 AM »

Unless Trump personally finds the vaccine for COVID, and saves a baby from a burning building, no.
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MikeIrvine
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« Reply #5 on: July 10, 2020, 10:41:08 AM »
I'm going to say RCP at Biden +5 and actual at Biden +5.5
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #6 on: July 10, 2020, 11:15:32 AM »
No idea. I think any answer here is a pure guess.
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #7 on: July 10, 2020, 11:42:49 AM »
I do still think Trump has a built-in advantage. It’s just so embarrassing to admit to supporting him.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #8 on: July 10, 2020, 11:54:47 AM »

Not happening.
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soundchaser
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« Reply #9 on: July 10, 2020, 11:54:59 AM »
Quote from: HagridOfTheDeep on July 10, 2020, 11:42:49 AM
I do still think Trump has a built-in advantage. It’s just so embarrassing to admit to supporting him.

Trump supporters are not embarrassed by anything.
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #10 on: July 10, 2020, 11:58:36 AM »
Quote from: soundchaser on July 10, 2020, 11:54:59 AM
Quote from: HagridOfTheDeep on July 10, 2020, 11:42:49 AM
I do still think Trump has a built-in advantage. It’s just so embarrassing to admit to supporting him.

Trump supporters are not embarrassed by anything.

That’s because we’re only thinking about Trump supporters who live in places where 80% of their neighbours vote the same way. I would imagine it’s a bit different in swing state suburbs...
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #11 on: July 10, 2020, 12:30:03 PM »
Final RCP average: Biden+9.7
Actual: Biden+8.5
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SaneDemocrat
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« Reply #12 on: July 10, 2020, 12:58:20 PM »
Why do online surveys and in person surveys show no difference. I also think Democratic voters will be skeptical of polls and turn out more than they would.
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Person Man
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« Reply #13 on: July 10, 2020, 01:02:04 PM »
« Edited: July 10, 2020, 01:11:14 PM by Everything Was Forever, Until It Was No More »
Quote from: soundchaser on July 10, 2020, 11:54:59 AM
Quote from: HagridOfTheDeep on July 10, 2020, 11:42:49 AM
I do still think Trump has a built-in advantage. It’s just so embarrassing to admit to supporting him.

Trump supporters are not embarrassed by anything.

They are less embarrassed than a Corgi who scavenges the cat box or the bathroom trash that time of the month.

This election will ultimately hinge on whether the Democratic base actually votes or not. Beyond that,  the difference between a 278 and a 412 election is whether the republicans like NCY or whitesox will ultimately come home and hold their noses again.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #14 on: July 10, 2020, 01:31:18 PM »

Hilarious.
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Coolface Sock #42069
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« Reply #15 on: July 18, 2020, 11:00:42 PM »
Quote from: Everything Was Forever, Until It Was No More on July 10, 2020, 01:02:04 PM
Quote from: soundchaser on July 10, 2020, 11:54:59 AM
Quote from: HagridOfTheDeep on July 10, 2020, 11:42:49 AM
I do still think Trump has a built-in advantage. It’s just so embarrassing to admit to supporting him.

Trump supporters are not embarrassed by anything.

They are less embarrassed than a Corgi who scavenges the cat box or the bathroom trash that time of the month.

This election will ultimately hinge on whether the Democratic base actually votes or not. Beyond that,  the difference between a 278 and a 412 election is whether the republicans like NCY or whitesox will ultimately come home and hold their noses again.
FWIW, I didn’t “hold my nose” the first time. I voted Gary Johnson. Might have voted Hillary if I lived in a swing state.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #16 on: July 18, 2020, 11:38:09 PM »
Final RCP average: Biden +6

Final result: Trump +1 (as Putin openly rigs the election in Trump's favor)
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WD
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« Reply #17 on: July 19, 2020, 01:12:31 AM »
Biden+9.5
Actual: Biden+8.2
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #18 on: July 19, 2020, 01:20:43 AM »
Quote from: HagridOfTheDeep on July 10, 2020, 11:58:36 AM
Quote from: soundchaser on July 10, 2020, 11:54:59 AM
Quote from: HagridOfTheDeep on July 10, 2020, 11:42:49 AM
I do still think Trump has a built-in advantage. It’s just so embarrassing to admit to supporting him.

Trump supporters are not embarrassed by anything.

That’s because we’re only thinking about Trump supporters who live in places where 80% of their neighbours vote the same way. I would imagine it’s a bit different in swing state suburbs...

Why would they lie in an anonymous poll?

Final RCP: Biden +8.5
Actual: Biden +9

Again, national polls were not off in 2016.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #19 on: July 19, 2020, 10:23:46 AM »
Absolute wild guessing (could change):

RCP on 11/03: Biden 50.4%, Trump 44.1% (Biden + 6.3%)
Result: Biden 51.9%, Trump 46.3% (Biden +5.6%) (Electoral votes: Biden 334, Trump 204; Biden +130)
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #20 on: July 19, 2020, 10:27:27 AM »
If Trump wins:
Final Average: Biden +4.1
Actual: Biden +2.7

If Biden wins:
Final Average: Biden +8.5
Actual: Biden +10.5
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Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins
johnzaharoff
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« Reply #21 on: July 19, 2020, 10:29:22 AM »
Final Average: Biden +8
Actual: Biden+ 6.5
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Woody
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« Reply #22 on: July 19, 2020, 10:52:32 AM »
Biden +2.9
Actual: Trump +0.8
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redjohn
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« Reply #23 on: July 19, 2020, 11:38:59 AM »
Final average: Biden+6.9
Actual: Biden+7.5
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Lisa's voting Biden
LCameronAL
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« Reply #24 on: July 19, 2020, 11:41:48 AM »
And just what is going to provide that mythical Trump bump that you fools have been talking about for months now?
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