Biden and Ohio

[TJ in Oregon]

I made the map of the vote a little too long ago to remember the scale, but the darker green is more opposed to gay marriage, the darker red more supportive, and gray was close to 50/50. As you can see the black areas of Cleveland voted strongly in favor of the gay marriage ban. The main areas opposed are the socially liberal nodes in the eastern suburbs, gentrified areas around Downtown and the near west side, and to a lesser extent Lakewood.

In addition to the gay marriage ban vote, Cleveland has also had a few black state legislators who are more socially conservative, in particular Bill Patmon. John Barnes has also made a few votes that have diverged from the standard Democratic Party position on social issues.

While, Cuyahoga County is to the left of the state in pretty much every way, I wouldn't really call it a socially liberal metro area on the whole. It definitely has certain areas that are very socially liberal (looking at you Heights area) but almost every major city in the north does. The Democrats mainly win Cuyahoga County due to the black vote and residual strength among working class white voters.

Some days ago I used Cuyahoga County as a metaphor saying that I feel Biden is more a Parma Democrat than a Shaker Heights Democrat. But I also added that given what happened under Obama and under Trump, I'm not sure there are still national Parma Democrats anymore.
What are your thoughts about this?

I think Biden is a Shaker Heights Democrat in a Parma wrapper. He has a rather downscale labor persona and set of mannerisms, but his policies are very corporate boardroom. How much of the changes in appeal is merely personality and style is something we shall see. But I don't personally view Biden as meaningfully different from the 'woke corporate' side of Democratic Party as a whole.

[S019]

Yes, but it won't be enough to win. Honestly, Biden should triage OH and divert money to GA and TX, which are more winnable and have more important downballot races, as well. It makes little sense for Biden to invest in OH, when a. it will be nowhere near the tipping point state, unlike say MI, PA, WI, or AZ, and b. it has no important down ballot races, unlike GA, TX, and IA. On top of that, it's a large state that spans many media markets, Biden will do better here, but he won't win it, and the smart move for him is to cut it loose.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Agreed with everyone that says don't invest money here unless enough money has already been spent on registration and GOTV in south Texas, Georgia, and Iowa. This should be Biden's last priority of the battleground states due to it having nothing of significant value on the ballot beyond its icing-on-the-cake electoral of votes.

[Chips]

Even though I don’t have Ohio voting for the Democrats at the Presidential level until 2040 or 2044, I think that Joe Biden will improve on Hillary Clinton’s margin in certain areas of the state, which will be enough to make Donald Trump only carry Ohio by a 52-46 or 52-47 margin. Joe Biden probably gets around 80% of the vote in Cuyahoga County and in the mid-60s in Hamilton and Franklin Counties. On the other hand, Donald Trump probably flips Lorain and Mahoning Counties by narrow margins.

This aged surprisingly well.

[Calthrina950]

Even though I don’t have Ohio voting for the Democrats at the Presidential level until 2040 or 2044, I think that Joe Biden will improve on Hillary Clinton’s margin in certain areas of the state, which will be enough to make Donald Trump only carry Ohio by a 52-46 or 52-47 margin. Joe Biden probably gets around 80% of the vote in Cuyahoga County and in the mid-60s in Hamilton and Franklin Counties. On the other hand, Donald Trump probably flips Lorain and Mahoning Counties by narrow margins.

This aged surprisingly well.

Biden didn't get anywhere close to 80% in Cuyahoga County (he got 66%) and failed to reach the 60% mark in Hamilton County, and Trump won Ohio by roughly the same margin as in 2016. But MATTROSE94 was right about Lorain and Mahoning Counties, which I didn't expect Trump to flip.

[perpetual_cynic]

Even though I don’t have Ohio voting for the Democrats at the Presidential level until 2040 or 2044, I think that Joe Biden will improve on Hillary Clinton’s margin in certain areas of the state, which will be enough to make Donald Trump only carry Ohio by a 52-46 or 52-47 margin. Joe Biden probably gets around 80% of the vote in Cuyahoga County and in the mid-60s in Hamilton and Franklin Counties. On the other hand, Donald Trump probably flips Lorain and Mahoning Counties by narrow margins.

This aged surprisingly well.

Do you see Butler or Warren Counties continuing their trend leftward after this year? I think the Cincinnati Metro has been one of the metro areas to move to the left. Hamilton Co. seems pretty set and looks to at least maintain its Dem advantage, Delaware County will also be interesting to see.

[Pres Mike]

I've read two books about the Biden campaign

Both claimed that the Biden campaign knew Texas wouldn't be close and the midwest trio would be much closer than polls shown. Basically better internal polling than most public polling

But the Biden campaign spent the last day in Ohio. I'm not sure what their polling was for the Buckeye state but what made the very well planned Biden campaign campaign in Ohio?