Biden and Ohio

[perpetual_cynic]

Do you think that Biden will be able to garner more support in the industrial working-class areas of Northeastern Ohio, than Clinton did in 2016?

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Yes.

[perpetual_cynic]

Yes.

Which counties are most likely in the area to swing left? I believe Mahoning and Summit counties are potential targets.

[Roll Roons]

Yes.

Which counties are most likely in the area to swing left? I believe Mahoning and Summit counties are potential targets.

Trumbull, Portage and Ashtabula were all O-T counties.

[Devils30]

It’s possible Biden can win but with no Senate race and being his 368-413th electoral vote, it’s not worth a large investment. Biden would have a different map than Obama, I suspect he’d win Hamilton by 20, Franklin by 35 and be within 3-4 in Delaware. Will do worse than Obama in southeastern Ohio even in a wave.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes, 18 percent AA is the most than any other Rust belt state and Kasich carried Portman and Trump over the finish line in 2016. Trump is very unpopular in IA, WI and OH

[IntelligenceWins]

That's unlikely to happen. I think that, as time passes by, it will be clear that his support is being overrated. The point is that Biden himself is even worse than Hillary as a candidate.
Anxious to watch him debate. 

[Ferguson97]

In a fair election yes, but voter suppression will keep Ohio out of his reach

[ExSky]

That's unlikely to happen. I think that, as time passes by, it will be clear that his support is being overrated. The point is that Biden himself is even worse than Hillary as a candidate.
Anxious to watch him debate. 

Oh I really really really can’t wait for Trump to get up on stage and brag about how amazing his presidency has been while millions upon millions are unemployed in a shattered economy and a pandemic ravages the country. That’s going to make him look great next to the sympathetic candidate Joe Biden.

[Non Swing Voter]

I wouldn't be surprised if Biden does better than Clinton in 90% of counties, especially the ones she did poorly in.

[Devils30]

The number might be around 98% honestly. Where in the country other than maybe small rural southern counties will he do worse?

[wbrocks67]

That's unlikely to happen. I think that, as time passes by, it will be clear that his support is being overrated. The point is that Biden himself is even worse than Hillary as a candidate.
Anxious to watch him debate. 

This is exactly what the Sanders base said when they thought that Biden would implode in a 1-on-1 debate. Never materialized.

[MATTROSE94]

Even though I don’t have Ohio voting for the Democrats at the Presidential level until 2040 or 2044, I think that Joe Biden will improve on Hillary Clinton’s margin in certain areas of the state, which will be enough to make Donald Trump only carry Ohio by a 52-46 or 52-47 margin. Joe Biden probably gets around 80% of the vote in Cuyahoga County and in the mid-60s in Hamilton and Franklin Counties. On the other hand, Donald Trump probably flips Lorain and Mahoning Counties by narrow margins.

[Roll Roons]

Even though I don’t have Ohio voting for the Democrats at the Presidential level until 2040 or 2044, I think that Joe Biden will improve on Hillary Clinton’s margin in certain areas of the state, which will be enough to make Donald Trump only carry Ohio by a 52-46 or 52-47 margin. Joe Biden probably gets around 80% of the vote in Cuyahoga County and in the mid-60s in Hamilton and Franklin Counties. On the other hand, Donald Trump probably flips Lorain and Mahoning Counties by narrow margins.

I'd actually really like to see your predictions for the next couple decades. Did you post them on the trends page?

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1281364270823997448

[Hope For A New Era]

Donald Trump probably flips Lorain and Mahoning Counties by narrow margins.

uh...what?

Maybe Mahoning in 2028 if trends continue, but Lorain? Not a chance. 2016 was that county's Republican ceiling. It's suburbanizing, and the rural areas are going to rebound a bit.

[G_Master]

I think so. Cuyahoga County was the county that lost the most overall vote share for the  Democratic nominee between 2012 and 2016. It was, like Wayne County, a major urban county in the Midwest that  both lost on Obama’s percentage for Hillary, while simultaneously showing a percentage point gain for Trump from Romney. Meanwhile Mahoning County showed the highest vote share gain out of Ohio’s 88 counties. This is in spite of Hillary winning both of these counties in 2016. I think if Biden wants to win Ohio, he needs to make serious gains in these counties among other counties in Ohio at large, including the typical swing counties like Lake and Ottawa. I think Biden can win Ohio. Keep in mind, Ohio has ALWAYS been a swing state. In the 90s in went from Bush to Clinton back to Bush. This is also an important state for Biden to win. Biden polling well in Ohio and then winning would virtually shut the door for Trump to gain any electoral advantage, and would leave out any ambiguity anout this prospect.

[Devils30]

Wrong year to flip Mahoning. A future GOP should definitely be targeting this type of place but my gut feeling is Biden will run ahead of Hillary here (but behind Obama by a decent amount).

[MATTROSE94]

Even though I don’t have Ohio voting for the Democrats at the Presidential level until 2040 or 2044, I think that Joe Biden will improve on Hillary Clinton’s margin in certain areas of the state, which will be enough to make Donald Trump only carry Ohio by a 52-46 or 52-47 margin. Joe Biden probably gets around 80% of the vote in Cuyahoga County and in the mid-60s in Hamilton and Franklin Counties. On the other hand, Donald Trump probably flips Lorain and Mahoning Counties by narrow margins.

I'd actually really like to see your predictions for the next couple decades. Did you post them on the trends page?

I haven’t really posted my political predictions yet, though I feel that the Republicans will continue to push for Trump-style politics (albeit in a far more moderate manner) and make major gains among white Catholics and white working class voters. On the other hand, I see the Democrats remains about the same politically with the exception of more openly supporting free trade and moving more towards the left in terms of social issues. I also feel that the Republicans will become the dominant political party in the Midwest, Appalachia, and New England (with the exception of Massachusetts), whereas the Democrats will likely make big gains in the Southwest and parts of the South such as Texas, Georgia, and North Carolina.

[pbrower2a]

Do you think that Biden will be able to garner more support in the industrial working-class areas of Northeastern Ohio, than Clinton did in 2016?

Yes. What good did Trump do for industrial workers?

[Chips]

He could win Ohio. Montgomery, Trumbull, Wood and Erie counties would probably flip back in a Biden win. Portage would probably be 50-50. Other typical swing counties like Ottawa, Ashtabula, Sandusky and Stark would stay Trump but would be closer.

[Bidenworth2020]

He could win Ohio. Montgomery, Trumbull, Wood and Erie counties would probably flip back in a Biden win. Portage would probably be 50-50. Other typical swing counties like Ottawa, Ashtabula, Sandusky and Stark would stay Trump but would be closer.

What is the feel on the ground in Trumbull? Is Biden poised to make some gains here from 2016, even if not recovering to Obama numbers?

[Chips]

He could win Ohio. Montgomery, Trumbull, Wood and Erie counties would probably flip back in a Biden win. Portage would probably be 50-50. Other typical swing counties like Ottawa, Ashtabula, Sandusky and Stark would stay Trump but would be closer.

What is the feel on the ground in Trumbull? Is Biden poised to make some gains here from 2016, even if not recovering to Obama numbers?

As someone from Trumbull, It could be 50-50 though I'm not sure exactly.

[perpetual_cynic]

Donald Trump probably flips Lorain and Mahoning Counties by narrow margins.

uh...what?

Maybe Mahoning in 2028 if trends continue, but Lorain? Not a chance. 2016 was that county's Republican ceiling. It's suburbanizing, and the rural areas are going to rebound a bit.

Lorain County went blue in 2016 by a smaller margin than 2008 or 2012. I could see Lorain flip by a very small margin. Although, I don't believe it will due to the popularity of Democrats in the 2018 midterms in the county.

[Chips]

Donald Trump probably flips Lorain and Mahoning Counties by narrow margins.

uh...what?

Maybe Mahoning in 2028 if trends continue, but Lorain? Not a chance. 2016 was that county's Republican ceiling. It's suburbanizing, and the rural areas are going to rebound a bit.

Lorain County went blue in 2016 by a smaller margin than 2008 or 2012. I could see Lorain flip by a very small margin. Although, I don't believe it will due to the popularity of Democrats in the 2018 midterms in the county.

131 vote difference. It could plausibly go Trump but yeah Republicans kinda got clobbered there in 2018.