Biden and Ohio
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perpetual_cynic
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« Reply #25 on: July 09, 2020, 10:39:52 PM »

Donald Trump probably flips Lorain and Mahoning Counties by narrow margins.

uh...what?

Maybe Mahoning in 2028 if trends continue, but Lorain? Not a chance. 2016 was that county's Republican ceiling. It's suburbanizing, and the rural areas are going to rebound a bit.

Lorain County went blue in 2016 by a smaller margin than 2008 or 2012. I could see Lorain flip by a very small margin. Although, I don't believe it will due to the popularity of Democrats in the 2018 midterms in the county.

131 vote difference. It could plausibly go Trump but yeah Republicans kinda got clobbered there in 2018.


As someone not from Ohio, could you explain why from the 2008 presidential election, that there is a sea of blue with the island of red that is Geauga County?
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Chips
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #26 on: July 09, 2020, 10:41:15 PM »

It’s possible Biden can win but with no Senate race and being his 368-413th electoral vote, it’s not worth a large investment. Biden would have a different map than Obama, I suspect he’d win Hamilton by 20, Franklin by 35 and be within 3-4 in Delaware. Will do worse than Obama in southeastern Ohio even in a wave.
I'd estimate OH as his 351st or 352nd electoral vote.
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Chips
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #27 on: July 09, 2020, 10:42:45 PM »

Donald Trump probably flips Lorain and Mahoning Counties by narrow margins.

uh...what?

Maybe Mahoning in 2028 if trends continue, but Lorain? Not a chance. 2016 was that county's Republican ceiling. It's suburbanizing, and the rural areas are going to rebound a bit.

Lorain County went blue in 2016 by a smaller margin than 2008 or 2012. I could see Lorain flip by a very small margin. Although, I don't believe it will due to the popularity of Democrats in the 2018 midterms in the county.

131 vote difference. It could plausibly go Trump but yeah Republicans kinda got clobbered there in 2018.


As someone not from Ohio, could you explain why from the 2008 presidential election, that there is a sea of blue with the island of red that is Geauga County?

Geauga isn't as urbanized as the other counties. It's only city (Chardon) has 5,000 people.
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perpetual_cynic
erwint.2021
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« Reply #28 on: July 09, 2020, 10:44:36 PM »

Donald Trump probably flips Lorain and Mahoning Counties by narrow margins.

uh...what?

Maybe Mahoning in 2028 if trends continue, but Lorain? Not a chance. 2016 was that county's Republican ceiling. It's suburbanizing, and the rural areas are going to rebound a bit.

Lorain County went blue in 2016 by a smaller margin than 2008 or 2012. I could see Lorain flip by a very small margin. Although, I don't believe it will due to the popularity of Democrats in the 2018 midterms in the county.

131 vote difference. It could plausibly go Trump but yeah Republicans kinda got clobbered there in 2018.


As someone not from Ohio, could you explain why from the 2008 presidential election, that there is a sea of blue with the island of red that is Geauga County?

Geauga isn't as urbanized as the other counties. It's only city (Chardon) has 5,000 people.

Also, it seems to me that once you leave Cuyahoga and Franklin Counties, the Democrats tend to be of a different breed. You see Tim Ryan, is one of the most moderate Democrats in the 2020 race. How socially conservative are the voters in places like Cuyahoga, compared to Mahoning or Portage?
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Chips
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #29 on: July 09, 2020, 10:45:52 PM »

Donald Trump probably flips Lorain and Mahoning Counties by narrow margins.

uh...what?

Maybe Mahoning in 2028 if trends continue, but Lorain? Not a chance. 2016 was that county's Republican ceiling. It's suburbanizing, and the rural areas are going to rebound a bit.

Lorain County went blue in 2016 by a smaller margin than 2008 or 2012. I could see Lorain flip by a very small margin. Although, I don't believe it will due to the popularity of Democrats in the 2018 midterms in the county.

131 vote difference. It could plausibly go Trump but yeah Republicans kinda got clobbered there in 2018.


As someone not from Ohio, could you explain why from the 2008 presidential election, that there is a sea of blue with the island of red that is Geauga County?

Geauga isn't as urbanized as the other counties. It's only city (Chardon) has 5,000 people.

Also, it seems to me that once you leave Cuyahoga and Franklin Counties, the Democrats tend to be of a different breed. You see Tim Ryan, is one of the most moderate Democrats in the 2020 race. How socially conservative are the voters in places like Cuyahoga, compared to Mahoning or Portage?

They are definitely way more liberal socially in Cleveland than the other places in the area.
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perpetual_cynic
erwint.2021
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« Reply #30 on: July 09, 2020, 10:48:06 PM »

Donald Trump probably flips Lorain and Mahoning Counties by narrow margins.

uh...what?

Maybe Mahoning in 2028 if trends continue, but Lorain? Not a chance. 2016 was that county's Republican ceiling. It's suburbanizing, and the rural areas are going to rebound a bit.

Lorain County went blue in 2016 by a smaller margin than 2008 or 2012. I could see Lorain flip by a very small margin. Although, I don't believe it will due to the popularity of Democrats in the 2018 midterms in the county.

131 vote difference. It could plausibly go Trump but yeah Republicans kinda got clobbered there in 2018.


As someone not from Ohio, could you explain why from the 2008 presidential election, that there is a sea of blue with the island of red that is Geauga County?

Geauga isn't as urbanized as the other counties. It's only city (Chardon) has 5,000 people.

Also, it seems to me that once you leave Cuyahoga and Franklin Counties, the Democrats tend to be of a different breed. You see Tim Ryan, is one of the most moderate Democrats in the 2020 race. How socially conservative are the voters in places like Cuyahoga, compared to Mahoning or Portage?

They are definitely way more liberal socially in Cleveland than the other places in the area.


Also, in regards to national polling, the most supportive race of LGBTQ rights are whites, Hispanics following, with black men being the least supportive. To what extent does the black-heavy areas of Cleveland actually support socially liberal causes like this?
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Chips
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #31 on: July 09, 2020, 10:48:46 PM »

Donald Trump probably flips Lorain and Mahoning Counties by narrow margins.

uh...what?

Maybe Mahoning in 2028 if trends continue, but Lorain? Not a chance. 2016 was that county's Republican ceiling. It's suburbanizing, and the rural areas are going to rebound a bit.

Lorain County went blue in 2016 by a smaller margin than 2008 or 2012. I could see Lorain flip by a very small margin. Although, I don't believe it will due to the popularity of Democrats in the 2018 midterms in the county.

131 vote difference. It could plausibly go Trump but yeah Republicans kinda got clobbered there in 2018.


As someone not from Ohio, could you explain why from the 2008 presidential election, that there is a sea of blue with the island of red that is Geauga County?

Geauga isn't as urbanized as the other counties. It's only city (Chardon) has 5,000 people.

Also, it seems to me that once you leave Cuyahoga and Franklin Counties, the Democrats tend to be of a different breed. You see Tim Ryan, is one of the most moderate Democrats in the 2020 race. How socially conservative are the voters in places like Cuyahoga, compared to Mahoning or Portage?

They are definitely way more liberal socially in Cleveland than the other places in the area.


Also, in regards to national polling, the most supportive race of LGBTQ rights are whites, Hispanics following, with black men being the least supportive. To what extent does the black-heavy areas of Cleveland actually support socially liberal causes like this?

Not too sure actually.
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perpetual_cynic
erwint.2021
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« Reply #32 on: July 09, 2020, 10:51:07 PM »

Donald Trump probably flips Lorain and Mahoning Counties by narrow margins.

uh...what?

Maybe Mahoning in 2028 if trends continue, but Lorain? Not a chance. 2016 was that county's Republican ceiling. It's suburbanizing, and the rural areas are going to rebound a bit.

Lorain County went blue in 2016 by a smaller margin than 2008 or 2012. I could see Lorain flip by a very small margin. Although, I don't believe it will due to the popularity of Democrats in the 2018 midterms in the county.

131 vote difference. It could plausibly go Trump but yeah Republicans kinda got clobbered there in 2018.


As someone not from Ohio, could you explain why from the 2008 presidential election, that there is a sea of blue with the island of red that is Geauga County?

Geauga isn't as urbanized as the other counties. It's only city (Chardon) has 5,000 people.

Also, it seems to me that once you leave Cuyahoga and Franklin Counties, the Democrats tend to be of a different breed. You see Tim Ryan, is one of the most moderate Democrats in the 2020 race. How socially conservative are the voters in places like Cuyahoga, compared to Mahoning or Portage?

They are definitely way more liberal socially in Cleveland than the other places in the area.


Also, in regards to national polling, the most supportive race of LGBTQ rights are whites, Hispanics following, with black men being the least supportive. To what extent does the black-heavy areas of Cleveland actually support socially liberal causes like this?

Not too sure actually.


How do you think Trump will fare in Beaver and Erie Counties, in Pennsylvania?
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Chips
Those Chips
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #33 on: July 09, 2020, 11:01:31 PM »

Donald Trump probably flips Lorain and Mahoning Counties by narrow margins.

uh...what?

Maybe Mahoning in 2028 if trends continue, but Lorain? Not a chance. 2016 was that county's Republican ceiling. It's suburbanizing, and the rural areas are going to rebound a bit.

Lorain County went blue in 2016 by a smaller margin than 2008 or 2012. I could see Lorain flip by a very small margin. Although, I don't believe it will due to the popularity of Democrats in the 2018 midterms in the county.

131 vote difference. It could plausibly go Trump but yeah Republicans kinda got clobbered there in 2018.


As someone not from Ohio, could you explain why from the 2008 presidential election, that there is a sea of blue with the island of red that is Geauga County?

Geauga isn't as urbanized as the other counties. It's only city (Chardon) has 5,000 people.

Also, it seems to me that once you leave Cuyahoga and Franklin Counties, the Democrats tend to be of a different breed. You see Tim Ryan, is one of the most moderate Democrats in the 2020 race. How socially conservative are the voters in places like Cuyahoga, compared to Mahoning or Portage?

They are definitely way more liberal socially in Cleveland than the other places in the area.


Also, in regards to national polling, the most supportive race of LGBTQ rights are whites, Hispanics following, with black men being the least supportive. To what extent does the black-heavy areas of Cleveland actually support socially liberal causes like this?

Not too sure actually.


How do you think Trump will fare in Beaver and Erie Counties, in Pennsylvania?

50-50 for Erie really and he'll win Beaver.
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perpetual_cynic
erwint.2021
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« Reply #34 on: July 09, 2020, 11:08:55 PM »

Donald Trump probably flips Lorain and Mahoning Counties by narrow margins.

uh...what?

Maybe Mahoning in 2028 if trends continue, but Lorain? Not a chance. 2016 was that county's Republican ceiling. It's suburbanizing, and the rural areas are going to rebound a bit.

Lorain County went blue in 2016 by a smaller margin than 2008 or 2012. I could see Lorain flip by a very small margin. Although, I don't believe it will due to the popularity of Democrats in the 2018 midterms in the county.

131 vote difference. It could plausibly go Trump but yeah Republicans kinda got clobbered there in 2018.


As someone not from Ohio, could you explain why from the 2008 presidential election, that there is a sea of blue with the island of red that is Geauga County?

Geauga isn't as urbanized as the other counties. It's only city (Chardon) has 5,000 people.

Also, it seems to me that once you leave Cuyahoga and Franklin Counties, the Democrats tend to be of a different breed. You see Tim Ryan, is one of the most moderate Democrats in the 2020 race. How socially conservative are the voters in places like Cuyahoga, compared to Mahoning or Portage?

They are definitely way more liberal socially in Cleveland than the other places in the area.


Also, in regards to national polling, the most supportive race of LGBTQ rights are whites, Hispanics following, with black men being the least supportive. To what extent does the black-heavy areas of Cleveland actually support socially liberal causes like this?

Not too sure actually.


How do you think Trump will fare in Beaver and Erie Counties, in Pennsylvania?

50-50 for Erie really and he'll win Beaver.


I'm curious if Cuyahoga County could possibly swing any further to the left. It seems that Democrats have about maxed the vote there, given the demographics.
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perpetual_cynic
erwint.2021
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« Reply #35 on: July 09, 2020, 11:08:55 PM »

Donald Trump probably flips Lorain and Mahoning Counties by narrow margins.

uh...what?

Maybe Mahoning in 2028 if trends continue, but Lorain? Not a chance. 2016 was that county's Republican ceiling. It's suburbanizing, and the rural areas are going to rebound a bit.

Lorain County went blue in 2016 by a smaller margin than 2008 or 2012. I could see Lorain flip by a very small margin. Although, I don't believe it will due to the popularity of Democrats in the 2018 midterms in the county.

131 vote difference. It could plausibly go Trump but yeah Republicans kinda got clobbered there in 2018.


As someone not from Ohio, could you explain why from the 2008 presidential election, that there is a sea of blue with the island of red that is Geauga County?

Geauga isn't as urbanized as the other counties. It's only city (Chardon) has 5,000 people.

Also, it seems to me that once you leave Cuyahoga and Franklin Counties, the Democrats tend to be of a different breed. You see Tim Ryan, is one of the most moderate Democrats in the 2020 race. How socially conservative are the voters in places like Cuyahoga, compared to Mahoning or Portage?

They are definitely way more liberal socially in Cleveland than the other places in the area.


Also, in regards to national polling, the most supportive race of LGBTQ rights are whites, Hispanics following, with black men being the least supportive. To what extent does the black-heavy areas of Cleveland actually support socially liberal causes like this?

Not too sure actually.


How do you think Trump will fare in Beaver and Erie Counties, in Pennsylvania?

50-50 for Erie really and he'll win Beaver.


I'm curious if Cuyahoga County could possibly swing any further to the left. It seems that Democrats have about maxed the vote there, given the demographics.
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Badger
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« Reply #36 on: July 09, 2020, 11:37:58 PM »

Donald Trump probably flips Lorain and Mahoning Counties by narrow margins.

uh...what?

Maybe Mahoning in 2028 if trends continue, but Lorain? Not a chance. 2016 was that county's Republican ceiling. It's suburbanizing, and the rural areas are going to rebound a bit.

Lorain County went blue in 2016 by a smaller margin than 2008 or 2012. I could see Lorain flip by a very small margin. Although, I don't believe it will due to the popularity of Democrats in the 2018 midterms in the county.

131 vote difference. It could plausibly go Trump but yeah Republicans kinda got clobbered there in 2018.


As someone not from Ohio, could you explain why from the 2008 presidential election, that there is a sea of blue with the island of red that is Geauga County?

Geauga isn't as urbanized as the other counties. It's only city (Chardon) has 5,000 people.

Also, it seems to me that once you leave Cuyahoga and Franklin Counties, the Democrats tend to be of a different breed. You see Tim Ryan, is one of the most moderate Democrats in the 2020 race. How socially conservative are the voters in places like Cuyahoga, compared to Mahoning or Portage?

They are definitely way more liberal socially in Cleveland than the other places in the area.


Also, in regards to national polling, the most supportive race of LGBTQ rights are whites, Hispanics following, with black men being the least supportive. To what extent does the black-heavy areas of Cleveland actually support socially liberal causes like this?

Not too sure actually.


How do you think Trump will fare in Beaver and Erie Counties, in Pennsylvania?

50-50 for Erie really and he'll win Beaver.


No, he'll win Erie before Beaver, and do better there regardless.
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politics_king
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« Reply #37 on: July 09, 2020, 11:54:23 PM »

Seeing Biden's speech, I definitely think he can really win over the rural voter. Especially if that voter regrets voting for Trump. I also believe that if this message is really resonating that it'll effect who he chooses for VP.
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Yoda
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« Reply #38 on: July 10, 2020, 12:42:30 AM »

That's unlikely to happen. I think that, as time passes by, it will be clear that his support is being overrated. The point is that Biden himself is even worse than Hillary as a candidate.
Anxious to watch him debate.  Wink

Wishful thinking/delusion is a sad thing to witness.
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Badger
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« Reply #39 on: July 10, 2020, 02:00:17 AM »

That's unlikely to happen. I think that, as time passes by, it will be clear that his support is being overrated. The point is that Biden himself is even worse than Hillary as a candidate.
Anxious to watch him debate.  Wink

Wishful thinking/delusion is a sad thing to witness.

According to his Sig, he identifies as a gay Republican. So I'd say it's par for the course.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #40 on: July 10, 2020, 02:35:08 AM »

I dont see how hard it is to believe that Rs can lose OH, 1992, 96, 2006, 2008 and 2012, Dems won IA, OH and WI.  Obama and Biden both won the WC states over McCain and Romney.  Kasich and both Walker were Govs of OH and WI and were very popular due to the 3.5 percent unemployment rate. But, in 2006, 2008 and 2010 we saw wild swings in unemployment and the outparty won each time. 2006 and 2008 Dems and 2010 Rs won.
Now, its 13% unemployment and outparty Dems can win
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #41 on: July 10, 2020, 11:53:12 AM »

I dont see how hard it is to believe that Rs can lose OH, 1992, 96, 2006, 2008 and 2012, Dems won IA, OH and WI.  Obama and Biden both won the WC states over McCain and Romney.  Kasich and both Walker were Govs of OH and WI and were very popular due to the 3.5 percent unemployment rate. But, in 2006, 2008 and 2010 we saw wild swings in unemployment and the outparty won each time. 2006 and 2008 Dems and 2010 Rs won.
Now, its 13% unemployment and outparty Dems can win
President Donald Trump is a pretty decent fit for Ohio and is not really worth it for the Democrats to make a play there unless there is a competitive Senate race there. Democrats, in my opinion, should focus more on carrying Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Florida, and Texas this year and not really focus on Ohio too much unless President Donald Trump's approvals go down to about 25% or less.
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Yoda
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« Reply #42 on: July 10, 2020, 11:05:38 PM »

That's unlikely to happen. I think that, as time passes by, it will be clear that his support is being overrated. The point is that Biden himself is even worse than Hillary as a candidate.
Anxious to watch him debate.  Wink

Wishful thinking/delusion is a sad thing to witness.

According to his Sig, he identifies as a gay Republican. So I'd say it's par for the course.

I hung out with a dude a couple times last year before I knew anything at all about his politics. I mean, he looks Latino ( later found out Cuban/Mexican) and he's a gay guy, so I just kinda assumed no worries there. Turns out he stans for trump. Like, hardcore. College degree too. Educated, Latino, and gay. Likes trump. What are the odds? Anyways, dropped that sh**t like a bad habit.
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G_Master
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« Reply #43 on: July 10, 2020, 11:10:13 PM »

That's unlikely to happen. I think that, as time passes by, it will be clear that his support is being overrated. The point is that Biden himself is even worse than Hillary as a candidate.
Anxious to watch him debate.  Wink

Wishful thinking/delusion is a sad thing to witness.

According to his Sig, he identifies as a gay Republican. So I'd say it's par for the course.

I hung out with a dude a couple times last year before I knew anything at all about his politics. I mean, he looks Latino ( later found out Cuban/Mexican) and he's a gay guy, so I just kinda assumed no worries there. Turns out he stans for trump. Like, hardcore. College degree too. Educated, Latino, and gay. Likes trump. What are the odds? Anyways, dropped that sh**t like a bad habit.

Trump has a cult of personality. At this point his base, aside from his bedrock base, is less defined by racial or sexual-orientation divisions and more on a pure loyalty to Trump, if that makes any sense.
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Yoda
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« Reply #44 on: July 10, 2020, 11:47:40 PM »

That's unlikely to happen. I think that, as time passes by, it will be clear that his support is being overrated. The point is that Biden himself is even worse than Hillary as a candidate.
Anxious to watch him debate.  Wink

Wishful thinking/delusion is a sad thing to witness.

According to his Sig, he identifies as a gay Republican. So I'd say it's par for the course.

I hung out with a dude a couple times last year before I knew anything at all about his politics. I mean, he looks Latino ( later found out Cuban/Mexican) and he's a gay guy, so I just kinda assumed no worries there. Turns out he stans for trump. Like, hardcore. College degree too. Educated, Latino, and gay. Likes trump. What are the odds? Anyways, dropped that sh**t like a bad habit.

Trump has a cult of personality. At this point his base, aside from his bedrock base, is less defined by racial or sexual-orientation divisions and more on a pure loyalty to Trump, if that makes any sense.


I did just remember that he and his family were very religious and spent A LOT of time at an evangelical/prosperity-style church, so I guess he did have that factor working in favor of being a trump fan. But yes, your point still stands.
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TJ in Oregon
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« Reply #45 on: July 11, 2020, 12:19:57 AM »

Donald Trump probably flips Lorain and Mahoning Counties by narrow margins.

uh...what?

Maybe Mahoning in 2028 if trends continue, but Lorain? Not a chance. 2016 was that county's Republican ceiling. It's suburbanizing, and the rural areas are going to rebound a bit.

Lorain County went blue in 2016 by a smaller margin than 2008 or 2012. I could see Lorain flip by a very small margin. Although, I don't believe it will due to the popularity of Democrats in the 2018 midterms in the county.

131 vote difference. It could plausibly go Trump but yeah Republicans kinda got clobbered there in 2018.


As someone not from Ohio, could you explain why from the 2008 presidential election, that there is a sea of blue with the island of red that is Geauga County?

Geauga isn't as urbanized as the other counties. It's only city (Chardon) has 5,000 people.

Also, it seems to me that once you leave Cuyahoga and Franklin Counties, the Democrats tend to be of a different breed. You see Tim Ryan, is one of the most moderate Democrats in the 2020 race. How socially conservative are the voters in places like Cuyahoga, compared to Mahoning or Portage?

They are definitely way more liberal socially in Cleveland than the other places in the area.


Also, in regards to national polling, the most supportive race of LGBTQ rights are whites, Hispanics following, with black men being the least supportive. To what extent does the black-heavy areas of Cleveland actually support socially liberal causes like this?

Although it's hold, here is the Cuyahoga County precinct map from the state amendment to gay marriage:



Here is the race map of Cuyahoga County from the old DRA:



I made the map of the vote a little too long ago to remember the scale, but the darker green is more opposed to gay marriage, the darker red more supportive, and gray was close to 50/50. As you can see the black areas of Cleveland voted strongly in favor of the gay marriage ban. The main areas opposed are the socially liberal nodes in the eastern suburbs, gentrified areas around Downtown and the near west side, and to a lesser extent Lakewood.

In addition to the gay marriage ban vote, Cleveland has also had a few black state legislators who are more socially conservative, in particular Bill Patmon. John Barnes has also made a few votes that have diverged from the standard Democratic Party position on social issues.

While, Cuyahoga County is to the left of the state in pretty much every way, I wouldn't really call it a socially liberal metro area on the whole. It definitely has certain areas that are very socially liberal (looking at you Heights area) but almost every major city in the north does. The Democrats mainly win Cuyahoga County due to the black vote and residual strength among working class white voters.
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perpetual_cynic
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« Reply #46 on: July 11, 2020, 07:47:38 AM »

Donald Trump probably flips Lorain and Mahoning Counties by narrow margins.

uh...what?

Maybe Mahoning in 2028 if trends continue, but Lorain? Not a chance. 2016 was that county's Republican ceiling. It's suburbanizing, and the rural areas are going to rebound a bit.

Lorain County went blue in 2016 by a smaller margin than 2008 or 2012. I could see Lorain flip by a very small margin. Although, I don't believe it will due to the popularity of Democrats in the 2018 midterms in the county.

131 vote difference. It could plausibly go Trump but yeah Republicans kinda got clobbered there in 2018.


As someone not from Ohio, could you explain why from the 2008 presidential election, that there is a sea of blue with the island of red that is Geauga County?

Geauga isn't as urbanized as the other counties. It's only city (Chardon) has 5,000 people.

Also, it seems to me that once you leave Cuyahoga and Franklin Counties, the Democrats tend to be of a different breed. You see Tim Ryan, is one of the most moderate Democrats in the 2020 race. How socially conservative are the voters in places like Cuyahoga, compared to Mahoning or Portage?

They are definitely way more liberal socially in Cleveland than the other places in the area.


Also, in regards to national polling, the most supportive race of LGBTQ rights are whites, Hispanics following, with black men being the least supportive. To what extent does the black-heavy areas of Cleveland actually support socially liberal causes like this?

Although it's hold, here is the Cuyahoga County precinct map from the state amendment to gay marriage:



Here is the race map of Cuyahoga County from the old DRA:



I made the map of the vote a little too long ago to remember the scale, but the darker green is more opposed to gay marriage, the darker red more supportive, and gray was close to 50/50. As you can see the black areas of Cleveland voted strongly in favor of the gay marriage ban. The main areas opposed are the socially liberal nodes in the eastern suburbs, gentrified areas around Downtown and the near west side, and to a lesser extent Lakewood.

In addition to the gay marriage ban vote, Cleveland has also had a few black state legislators who are more socially conservative, in particular Bill Patmon. John Barnes has also made a few votes that have diverged from the standard Democratic Party position on social issues.

While, Cuyahoga County is to the left of the state in pretty much every way, I wouldn't really call it a socially liberal metro area on the whole. It definitely has certain areas that are very socially liberal (looking at you Heights area) but almost every major city in the north does. The Democrats mainly win Cuyahoga County due to the black vote and residual strength among working class white voters.

I figured that Cleveland was less on the social liberal side of the Democratic Party. I have seen patterns in North Carolina of the same idea. The rural black areas voted against same-sex marriage, to a greater extent than the white rural areas.
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BlueGrassKentuckian
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« Reply #47 on: July 11, 2020, 09:35:49 AM »

I think it’s less flippable than Iowa in the sense that Obama carried Iowa with larger margins. White Iowans are more moderate than Ohioans.
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bronz4141
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« Reply #48 on: July 11, 2020, 10:46:41 AM »

Yes,

I think Biden wins Ohio.
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Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #49 on: July 11, 2020, 11:01:14 AM »


I made the map of the vote a little too long ago to remember the scale, but the darker green is more opposed to gay marriage, the darker red more supportive, and gray was close to 50/50. As you can see the black areas of Cleveland voted strongly in favor of the gay marriage ban. The main areas opposed are the socially liberal nodes in the eastern suburbs, gentrified areas around Downtown and the near west side, and to a lesser extent Lakewood.

In addition to the gay marriage ban vote, Cleveland has also had a few black state legislators who are more socially conservative, in particular Bill Patmon. John Barnes has also made a few votes that have diverged from the standard Democratic Party position on social issues.

While, Cuyahoga County is to the left of the state in pretty much every way, I wouldn't really call it a socially liberal metro area on the whole. It definitely has certain areas that are very socially liberal (looking at you Heights area) but almost every major city in the north does. The Democrats mainly win Cuyahoga County due to the black vote and residual strength among working class white voters.

Some days ago I used Cuyahoga County as a metaphor saying that I feel Biden is more a Parma Democrat than a Shaker Heights Democrat. But I also added that given what happened under Obama and under Trump, I'm not sure there are still national Parma Democrats anymore.
What are your thoughts about this?
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