AK-SEN 2022: A Rank Choice

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I don’t see her winning reelection as a Republican. She’d have an easier time running as an Independent, but even then a well-funded and competent Republican could beat her in a Biden midterm.

The weird form of RCV on the ballot in Alaska right now could save her bacon if it passes.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Well she could be an independent who caucuses with Democrats, that would be fine. Though you're right, they'd probably have to bribe her with running the energy committee or something which would be gross.

Couldn't be worse than our Ranking Member.

I've heard speculation that this might annoy Manchin by denying him the gavel, possibly precipitating a party swtich or early resignation on his part. Not sure how credible that is, but I guess it's worth thinking about.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Yeah I dont but that Murkowski is safe from a primary with the challenge with this vote but it helps her a lot this will definitely hurt her a lot among Dems and indys depending on how close AK house sen and Pres this year is I think looking for a strong candidate is a good idea,

What this does do is squeeze her out potentially in a three way race between a Republican, a serious Democrat and her, in which case RCV doesn't help her if she is in third place.

It's not certain it does either of these things. Rating that race will be rather difficult if RCV passes and there are multiple serious candidates (up to 4 candidates can make it through, so there could be two Democratic-leaning candidates or a "true" independent and a Democrat in addition to two Republicans).

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Mark Begich should give it another go.

He's a two-time general election loser. His brother in the state legislature represents that dynasty now.

A former official with a better opportunity would be ex-Gov. Bill Walker, whose coalition-building experience as an independent could translate well into a jungle primary/RCV scenario.