AK-SEN 2022: A Rank Choice
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  AK-SEN 2022: A Rank Choice
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Author Topic: AK-SEN 2022: A Rank Choice  (Read 18518 times)
Gracile
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« on: July 09, 2020, 12:44:57 PM »
« edited: October 11, 2022, 11:51:00 AM by Brittain33 »

The recent PPP poll of Alaska showed incumbent Senator Lisa Murkowski (R) with low approval ratings across partisan groups-

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/AlaskaResults20200709.pdf


Total:
29% Approve
55% Disapprove

Democrats:
41% Approve
41% Disapprove

Republicans:
17% Approve
71% Disapprove

Independents:
33% Approve
49% Disapprove

She also has much higher approvals with 2016 Clinton voters (45/39) than 2016 Trump voters (13/74) and even third-party voters (41/35). Not exactly sure what to make of these numbers as far as her 2022 Senate campaign goes. It certainly shows her in a tenuous position for the primary and possibly general election - though this is harder to say given the idiosyncratic partisan composition of her previous winning coalitions. Thoughts?
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #1 on: July 09, 2020, 12:46:37 PM »

Good, hopefully we have 2 Ds in AK
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #2 on: July 09, 2020, 12:47:41 PM »

I don’t see her winning reelection as a Republican. She’d have an easier time running as an Independent, but even then a well-funded and competent Republican could beat her in a Biden midterm.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #3 on: July 09, 2020, 12:49:14 PM »

If Ds get anywhere near 55 seats, in 2020, not only will they pass DC statehood,  they will pass PR statehood . Locking out Rs to regain majority in 2022 or 2024.

It would of happened in 2009, but Obama blundered
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #4 on: July 09, 2020, 12:50:23 PM »

I don’t see her winning reelection as a Republican. She’d have an easier time running as an Independent, but even then a well-funded and competent Republican could beat her in a Biden midterm.

The weird form of RCV on the ballot in Alaska right now could save her bacon if it passes.
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JMT
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« Reply #5 on: July 09, 2020, 01:19:29 PM »

I wouldn’t be surprised if Murkowski runs as an independent in 2022 and caucuses with Democrats, and receives the support of the Democratic Party (similar to what Alyse Galvin and Al Gross are doing this cycle). This would be Democrat’s (and probably Murkowski’s) best bet at holding the seat. This could be particularly appealing to Murkowski if Democrats win the Senate majority this fall.

I doubt Murkowski runs for the republican nomination again, and maybe she’ll just call it quits and retire from politics altogether.

Who runs on the republican side? Is there any chance we could see Sarah Palin run for this seat?

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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #6 on: July 09, 2020, 02:18:55 PM »

Murkowski voted to acquit Trump, that wasnt very independent of her
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #7 on: July 09, 2020, 02:22:39 PM »

Hopefully Schumer is getting ready to convince her to switch parties in 2021.
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Gracile
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« Reply #8 on: July 09, 2020, 02:28:14 PM »

Hopefully Schumer is getting ready to convince her to switch parties in 2021.

She would never go Democratic. Independent, possibly, but not Democratic.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #9 on: July 09, 2020, 02:31:03 PM »

Hopefully Schumer is getting ready to convince her to switch parties in 2021.

She would never go Democratic. Independent, possibly, but not Democratic.

Yeah, one of her defining keynote issues is a staunch, rabid opposition to environmentalism. It's really the only thing keeping her in the GOP at this point, but it'd be very hard for her to become a Democrat with that stance.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #10 on: July 09, 2020, 02:38:40 PM »

Well she could be an independent who caucuses with Democrats, that would be fine. Though you're right, they'd probably have to bribe her with running the energy committee or something which would be gross.
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« Reply #11 on: July 09, 2020, 02:40:05 PM »

Well she could be an independent who caucuses with Democrats, that would be fine. Though you're right, they'd probably have to bribe her with running the energy committee or something which would be gross.

Couldn't be worse than our Ranking Member.
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S019
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« Reply #12 on: July 09, 2020, 02:54:56 PM »

She's going to be primaried, if she remains a Republican, and she knows it. Honestly, she'll probably just retire, because she's not winning a primary at this rate, if she goes independent, the Republicans could very well beat her.
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« Reply #13 on: July 09, 2020, 03:01:01 PM »

Well she could be an independent who caucuses with Democrats, that would be fine. Though you're right, they'd probably have to bribe her with running the energy committee or something which would be gross.

Couldn't be worse than our Ranking Member.

I've heard speculation that this might annoy Manchin by denying him the gavel, possibly precipitating a party swtich or early resignation on his part. Not sure how credible that is, but I guess it's worth thinking about.
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ctrepublican512
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« Reply #14 on: July 09, 2020, 05:21:34 PM »

I think this is being read into a little more than it should. I don't think you can count out the particular bad timing of this poll given Murkowski's past month. I think when all is said and done Murkowski has more cards up her sleeve and more leverage in being re-elected than she doesn't. I think this is more of a reflection of the confluence of her position in GOP + how bad GOP brand is now/huge Dem advantage in the generic ballot. At the end of the day, I think Alaskan Independents are more inclined to support her in two years than what the poll reflects now
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #15 on: July 09, 2020, 05:24:05 PM »

I think this is being read into a little more than it should. I don't think you can count out the particular bad timing of this poll given Murkowski's past month. I think when all is said and done Murkowski has more cards up her sleeve and more leverage in being re-elected than she doesn't. I think this is more of a reflection of the confluence of her position in GOP + how bad GOP brand is now/huge Dem advantage in the generic ballot. At the end of the day, I think Alaskan Independents are more inclined to support her in two years than what the poll reflects now

She voted to.acquit Trump and say that to Dan Sullivan whom is in a tight race with Gross.

Rs think that this is 2016, 1992, 96, 2006, 08, 12 and 2018 prove Ds can win 50 states not just 278
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ctrepublican512
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« Reply #16 on: July 09, 2020, 05:26:24 PM »

I think this is being read into a little more than it should. I don't think you can count out the particular bad timing of this poll given Murkowski's past month. I think when all is said and done Murkowski has more cards up her sleeve and more leverage in being re-elected than she doesn't. I think this is more of a reflection of the confluence of her position in GOP + how bad GOP brand is now/huge Dem advantage in the generic ballot. At the end of the day, I think Alaskan Independents are more inclined to support her in two years than what the poll reflects now

She voted to.acquit Trump and say that to Dan Sullivan whom is in a tight race with Gross.

Rs think that this is 2016, 1992, 96, 2006, 08, 12 and 2018 prove Ds can win 50 states not just 278

She also voted against Kavanaugh. Not sure what your last point means
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« Reply #17 on: July 10, 2020, 02:00:07 AM »

Well she could be an independent who caucuses with Democrats, that would be fine. Though you're right, they'd probably have to bribe her with running the energy committee or something which would be gross.

Couldn't be worse than our Ranking Member.

I've heard speculation that this might annoy Manchin by denying him the gavel, possibly precipitating a party swtich or early resignation on his part. Not sure how credible that is, but I guess it's worth thinking about.

Yeah, to be fair Manchin is probably only still caucusing with us because he's the Ranking Member.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #18 on: July 10, 2020, 11:23:11 AM »

Well she could be an independent who caucuses with Democrats, that would be fine. Though you're right, they'd probably have to bribe her with running the energy committee or something which would be gross.

Couldn't be worse than our Ranking Member.

I've heard speculation that this might annoy Manchin by denying him the gavel, possibly precipitating a party swtich or early resignation on his part. Not sure how credible that is, but I guess it's worth thinking about.

Yeah, to be fair Manchin is probably only still caucusing with us because he's the Ranking Member.

And she's already been Committee Chair for 6 years so hopefully they could just reach an equitable compromise, i.e. Manchin as Chair & Murkowski as "senior Committee member" or something like that.
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VAR
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« Reply #19 on: October 24, 2020, 02:52:21 PM »


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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #20 on: October 24, 2020, 03:06:08 PM »




Honestly, I'm not as angry at her about this as I probably should be.
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S019
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« Reply #21 on: October 24, 2020, 03:07:48 PM »




She probably just saved herself in a primary, but we'll see, if she decides to crossover and vote with Democrats on stuff during a Biden presidency, then she'd be in primary danger again
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Left Wing
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« Reply #22 on: October 24, 2020, 03:09:50 PM »

The top four primary may be her undoing. If Palin goes through with a challenge and Begich or Galvin run, the vote could be split enough to get a Democratic pickup. Murkowski will tank in crossover support because of this.
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exopolitician
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« Reply #23 on: October 24, 2020, 03:14:48 PM »

She just announced she will vote to confirm ACB.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #24 on: October 24, 2020, 03:46:59 PM »

She just announced she will vote to confirm ACB.

Yeah, her career is over after 2022.
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