AK-SEN 2022: A Rank Choice

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/npfandos/status/1320080527496564736?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctw...

Honestly, I'm not as angry at her about this as I probably should be.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Murkowski voted to convict President Trump today, making her the only Republican Senator running for reelection next year to do so.

With RCV that could help her to get enough second preferences by Democrats.

I hope she holds on honestly; a Democrat win in AK is unlikely in 2022 and 99% of Republicans will be worse.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I really doubt that Murkowski caucuses with the Democrats, but she could easily become an indy and run to caucus with the Republican's.

Probably. She's not a Democrat at heart, but she would be accepted into the party. I'm not sure being an Independent Republican can save her. Her numbers are horrific amongst Republicans. Her best bet is probably to go Indy and promise to be an Alaska Independent or something like that. That could mean caucusing with the Democrats for the current Congress. There is no path for her to win through Republican voters. She needs independents and Democrats.

She'll need some moderate republicans ( and center right/ right Indies) to win in 2022. I dont think saying I'm going to caucus with Schumer in an R year is the best way to do that. I think she should just go true Alaska indy as you say

Her winning coalition is basically ensuring she can get as many moderate Rs and, Independents,  Democrats to vote for her outright, especially the latter now that we see how low her approval is with Republicans. Then she needs virtually every Dem and Indy to rank her higher than Tshibaka. If she’s not relying on primarily Republican voters, becoming an Independent isn’t a bad idea from a political standpoint, especially in a state like AK. Otherwise, she risks low info Dems putting her below Tshibaka unknowingly and risking herself indirect votes potentially. She needs to claim her turf in the RCV arena,  so having a label that misaligns with her turf seems like a loosing recipe. At the very least, still caucus with Rs but be an Independent on the ballot.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Was looking at Murkowski's Instagram and it very much seems like a blog. She posts pretty regularly and basically all of her posts are her visiting some community and talking about why that community matters and issues important to them. Not surprising but all of it is pretty lowkey and she never is just aggressively punching political points. She’s also good at stating clearly where she stands on various issues in her bio and why.

Tshibaka's Instagram comes off as way more political and entrenched which is ironic, with popping thumbnails all dissing on Murkowski.

I have to appreciate Murkowski for how positive of a campaign she runs even if I may disagree with her. Everything seems to be about why she cares about Alaska rather than all these dark posts about what's wrong with her opponents or the Biden admin. In a RCV system, this seems like a smart strategy as you're more likely to gain universal appeal by not constantly defining where you fall on our political spectrum if that makes sense.

I really hope she holds on cause she seems like a genuinely good and thoughtful person relative to Tshibaka and is pretty in line with where Alaska as a whole stand on the issues. Peltola's recent win really gives me hope that a majority of Alaska isn't hard MAGA and she can form a winning coalition.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Murkowski has a home in the Democratic Party if she wants it.

This would be the most begrudging welcoming possible. Let's not forget how useless she's been on judicial appointments (remember how she went along with McConnell blocking Garland), the voting rights bill, and more.

IIRC, didn't she meet with Garland & call for a hearing & vote? It's not her fault that Senate discharge petitions don't exist.

If she really wanted a vote on Garland, she could have switched parties then.

Yes, switch the Senate from 54-46R to 53-47R and lose re-election.

Great job SnowLabrador.

My sense of Murkowski is she really doesn’t like the state of the current R party but has optimism at party will eventually find its senses again and become a more mainstream opposition party rather than the MAGA mess it is now. I think fundamentally she is a conservative and her family/culture just has deep R roots meaning it’s take quite a lot for her to formally switch. If anything she’d become an Independent.

Maybe she’s waiting to see how Rs decide to campaign come 2024 and if they go full Trump again she may become an Independent. I really doubt she would outright flip senate control though so this assumes whoever is in the majorly has a few seats buffer.

[ProgressiveModerate]

538 has the current probabilities at 53% for Tshibaka and 47% for Murkowski.  That's a toss-up by any reasonable definition.

I think that’s just that one screwy poll, which doesn’t align at all with what we saw in the primary. The other polls have had Murkowski up much more comfortably. I don’t think Murkowski is in any real danger.

Plus since RCV is so new, I think models like 538 struggle with how to deal with it

[ProgressiveModerate]

Would both Peltola and Murskowski winning in Alaska create a new narrative around some sort of "moderate" Alaska coalition that becomes dominant?

Tbh, we already see this in the state House a bit where Democrats, Independents, and moderate Republicans joined together to become the majority caucus. It'll be interesting to see if that majority holds.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'm way late to this party but is Wikipedia correct when it says Tshibaka is pronounced like Chewbacca? I haven't been able to stop thinking about this since I read it.

Basically yes except the “Ch” is an “Sh”

To me it sounds like Sussy Baka, which imo is quite fitting.