AK-SEN 2022: A Rank Choice

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Can't see this article behind a paywall, but for anybody who can, I assume that this has some good info on the early shape of the race:

Is Lisa Murkowski the Susan Collins of 2022?

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Nugget from that politico piece:

Trump’s political team has commissioned polling on the Alaska senator, further evidence of its interest in unseating her. The survey, which was conducted Jan. 30-Feb 1, before Murkowski voted to convict the former president, found Murkowski with a 43 percent favorable rating in Alaska, short of Trump’s 52 percent figure. The survey was conducted by McLaughlin and Associates, a firm that worked on Trump’s 2016 and 2020 campaigns. It was paid for by Save America, Trump’s leadership political action committee.

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Not to derail this thread from the Alaska race, but I do wonder if this is a sign that Manchin is going to get actively involved in more Senate races. Especially with the Republicans themselves nonsensically peddling the "Manchin is the only good Democrat" line or whatever, he could very easily go to certain regions and lend credibility to Dem candidates with certain types of voters.

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Not to derail this thread from the Alaska race, but I do wonder if this is a sign that Manchin is going to get actively involved in more Senate races. Especially with the Republicans themselves nonsensically peddling the "Manchin is the only good Democrat" line or whatever, he could very easily go to certain regions and lend credibility to Dem candidates with certain types of voters.

I don't think Manchin has that kind of pull, as the kind of voters you're referring to probably are not the types to be familiar with Manchin or his brand of politics. His endorsement of Murkowski (and Collins) seems like simply a self-serving move.

I agree with this, and definitely about his reasoning for this endorsement, but given the amount of media coverage there's been of him since Biden took office and the amount of lionization Republicans have done of him, I'd wager his profile is growing somewhat quickly.

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written her DEATH KISS

This isn't a saying.

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Appears that 538 is not simulating RCV and is expecting Tshibaka to finish first in round one, which seems reasonable.