AK-SEN 2022: A Rank Choice

[MT Treasurer]

I don’t see her winning reelection as a Republican. She’d have an easier time running as an Independent, but even then a well-funded and competent Republican could beat her in a Biden midterm.

[MT Treasurer]

I don’t buy that RCV makes her some unbeatable titan. Her coalition is going to be significantly more reliant on Democratic support this time around, and her support among Republicans has eroded. She’s not the underdog yet, but if a well-funded challenger can consolidate anti-Murkowski sentiment among the right (which is very real), she’s going to be in trouble.

[MT Treasurer]

Trump has vowed to campaign against Murkowski in 2022.

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/03/06/trump-lisa-murkowski-2022-474028

[MT Treasurer]

Nugget from that politico piece:

Trump’s political team has commissioned polling on the Alaska senator, further evidence of its interest in unseating her. The survey, which was conducted Jan. 30-Feb 1, before Murkowski voted to convict the former president, found Murkowski with a 43 percent favorable rating in Alaska, short of Trump’s 52 percent figure. The survey was conducted by McLaughlin and Associates, a firm that worked on Trump’s 2016 and 2020 campaigns. It was paid for by Save America, Trump’s leadership political action committee.

I don’t know any details about this survey and reports like these should always be taken with a grain of salt, but this is certainly an interesting... 'coincidence' when you keep in mind what % of the vote Biden received in AK.

RCV will only get you so far if your entire support within your own party has collapsed.

[MT Treasurer]

I think she will still win. Enough moderates and independents will rank her first for her to not get eliminated. The Democrats will rank her above the mainstream Republican, and Republicans will rank her above the Democrat.

The big problem for her is that enough Republicans might not rank her at all. She’s by no means safe.

[MT Treasurer]

I think she will still win. Enough moderates and independents will rank her first for her to not get eliminated. The Democrats will rank her above the mainstream Republican, and Republicans will rank her above the Democrat.

The big problem for her is that enough Republicans might not rank her at all. She’s by no means safe.

True, we really have no idea how this new voting system will play out. Since most voters don't understand the strategic implications of IRV, it may be in the interest of the Democratic Party to encourage people to put Murkowski first and the Democrat second or not run a Democrat at all (unless they think they can actually win).

I’d agree, although this has the unintended side effect of alienating even more Republican/Trump voters who might have otherwise considered ranking her. It depends on how much goodwill she still has with a very small segment of the R base — it could be enough if Democrats unite behind her (as you said), no Republican consolidates the anti-Murkowski vote, and moderate Republicans exist in large enough numbers for her to forge a coalition that’s not reliant on conservative support. A lot of this discourse here just reminds me of the "Collins faces an uphill battle because of RCV", though.

[MT Treasurer]

Joe Manchin's modus operandi mostly consists of touting and burnishing his bipartisan, independent credentials whenever it doesn’t make any difference but still gets him a favorable headline or two that can be turned into some nice ad material, so it’s certainly no surprise to see him endorsing Collins or Murkowski. You’re obviously not very smart if you think the man actually wants Republicans to hold this state (or win any competitive race, for that matter).