AK-SEN 2022: A Rank Choice

[Progressive Pessimist]

This should be an interesting race because I want to assume that Murkowski knows what she's doing and still knows how to win, but I also don't want to underestimate the power of Trump spite and the reciprocation by his hive-minded hoard in a state he won.

The best case scenario would be a repeat of 2010 but with the conservative vote split and allowing a Democrat to win. This would be a positive development, so obviously that means it's very unlikely.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/murkowski-faces-republican-challenger-drawing-172329443.html

[LtNOWIS]

ADN has more about the challenger, Alaska Department of Administration Commissioner Kelly Tshibaka.

https://www.adn.com/politics/2021/03/29/alaska-state-commissioner-kelly-tshibaka-announces-run-against-sen-lisa-murkowski/

Decent resume as an administrator, but she's a first time candidate. In any event, I don't think this is too bad for Murkowski. She was bound to draw a challenger, but she should do well in the new Top 4 system.

[I’m not Stu]

Joe Miller is likely the biggest GOP threat to Murkowski. Miller probably runs.

[brucejoel99]

Eh, I'm not really worried for Murkowski thanks to RCV now, I just can't see her not cruising to victory on the back of pragmatic & centrist Democrats & Republicans alike thanks to pretty much every Democrat & non-Trumpist Republican in the state ranking her as either their 1 or their 2 on their ballots.

[bandg]

I'm going against the conventional wisdom here, but I'm not sure if RCV will end up helping Murkowski.  She will obviously get into the general, but she is in significant danger of being the 2nd elimination by RCV. A lot of 2nd place votes don't help if you can't get into the final 2. A lot depends on who the Democrats end up running, because Murkowski is going to need 1st place votes from a significant chunk of Dems. I think people underestimate how much Murkowski's base support has collapsed since 2016, and not just because of Trump.

[Galeel]

I'm going against the conventional wisdom here, but I'm not sure if RCV will end up helping Murkowski.  She will obviously get into the general, but she is in significant danger of being the 2nd elimination by RCV. A lot of 2nd place votes don't help if you can't get into the final 2. A lot depends on who the Democrats end up running, because Murkowski is going to need 1st place votes from a significant chunk of Dems. I think people underestimate how much Murkowski's base support has collapsed since 2016, and not just because of Trump.

100%. If there's a strong dem and a strong other republican I could easily see Murkowski coming in 3rd.

[brucejoel99]

I'm going against the conventional wisdom here, but I'm not sure if RCV will end up helping Murkowski.  She will obviously get into the general, but she is in significant danger of being the 2nd elimination by RCV. A lot of 2nd place votes don't help if you can't get into the final 2. A lot depends on who the Democrats end up running, because Murkowski is going to need 1st place votes from a significant chunk of Dems. I think people underestimate how much Murkowski's base support has collapsed since 2016, and not just because of Trump.

100%. If there's a strong dem and a strong other republican I could easily see Murkowski coming in 3rd.

This is a big if, of course, especially if a sufficient number of Democratic-leaning Alaskan voters come to the conclusion over the course of the campaign that Murkowski would have a better shot of beating Tshibaka in the final round than the hypothetical Democrat, & rank Murkowski #1 as a result.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I wouldn't underestimate a challenge to Murkowski, we are in am anti INCUMBENT mood, it's possible that any challenger to Murkowski can win

I don't care about Murkowski, she voting to block everything

[Roll Roons]

NRSC commits to backing Murkowski: https://nrsc.org/nrsc-statement-on-senator-murkowski/

[Real Texan Politics]

NRSC commits to backing Murkowski: https://nrsc.org/nrsc-statement-on-senator-murkowski/

We are laser focused on taking back the Senate majority and stopping the crazy socialist agenda of the Democrats.

If this is all they got then they're gonna lose (except maybe in Florida).

Though I'm honestly surprised they endorsed Murkowski considering she's one of the more liberal republicans. I have a feeling Trump won't be so happy with this endorsement.

[Epaminondas]

Is Alaska RCV not a queer variation of RCV that includes a Top-4?

If so it's virtually impossible that she would receive less than 25% of the vote, so why all the hot takes?

[brucejoel99]

Is Alaska RCV not a queer variation of RCV that includes a Top-4?

If so it's virtually impossible that she would receive less than 25% of the vote, so why all the hot takes?

Yeah, it's a single nonpartisan blanket primary, but instead of the top-2 advancing to the general like in CA & WA, it's top-4 & the general utilizes RCV if necessary 'til somebody's over 50%.

[Roll Roons]

Is Alaska RCV not a queer variation of RCV that includes a Top-4?

If so it's virtually impossible that she would receive less than 25% of the vote, so why all the hot takes?

Yeah, it's a single nonpartisan blanket primary, but instead of the top-2 advancing to the general like in CA & WA, it's top-4 & the general utilizes RCV if necessary 'til somebody's over 50%.

I'm very interested in seeing how it plays out. As far as blanket primaries go, I think this system is better than CA/WA since the odds of a partisan lockout are low.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Is Alaska RCV not a queer variation of RCV that includes a Top-4?

If so it's virtually impossible that she would receive less than 25% of the vote, so why all the hot takes?

yeah but the top-4 is also a RCV and if she doesn't get enough first place votes she get eliminated and her voter preferences get redistrubited. It's one of the peculiure features of RCV that while Murkowski might win a 1-1 race against all of the top-4 canidates by being all the other peoples second choice she can still loose if she isn't enough people's first choice to avoid getting eliminated first.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Condorcet_winner_criterion

[Epaminondas]

Is Alaska RCV not a queer variation of RCV that includes a Top-4?

If so it's virtually impossible that she would receive less than 25% of the vote, so why all the hot takes?

yeah but the top-4 is also a RCV and if she doesn't get enough first place votes she get eliminated and her voter preferences get redistrubited. It's one of the peculiure features of RCV that while Murkowski might win a 1-1 race against all of the top-4 canidates by being all the other peoples second choice she can still loose if she isn't enough people's first choice to avoid getting eliminated first.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Condorcet_winner_criterion

Though I also find the mathematics of election fascinating (and even made it the topic of my university studies), in this case the 2010 result alone shows us that Murkowski has at one point been the top choice of an actual majority of the Alaskan electorate.
Possibly the only one in the whole country, along with Sanders and King.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Is Alaska RCV not a queer variation of RCV that includes a Top-4?

If so it's virtually impossible that she would receive less than 25% of the vote, so why all the hot takes?

yeah but the top-4 is also a RCV and if she doesn't get enough first place votes she get eliminated and her voter preferences get redistrubited. It's one of the peculiure features of RCV that while Murkowski might win a 1-1 race against all of the top-4 canidates by being all the other peoples second choice she can still loose if she isn't enough people's first choice to avoid getting eliminated first.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Condorcet_winner_criterion

Though I also find the mathematics of election fascinating (and even made it the topic of my university studies), in this case the 2010 result alone shows us that Murkowski has at one point been the top choice of an actual majority of the Alaskan electorate.
Possibly the only one in the whole country, along with Sanders and King.

2010 was a lifetime ago with regards to political polarization. Partisan identit has become far more important and split ticket voting has collapsed.

[Epaminondas]

2010 was a lifetime ago with regards to political polarization. Partisan identit has become far more important and split ticket voting has collapsed.

How are ticket splitting trends related to GOP primaries?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

2010 was a lifetime ago with regards to political polarization. Partisan identit has become far more important and split ticket voting has collapsed.

How are ticket splitting trends related to GOP primaries?

There's no GOP primary, it's gonna be a blanket primary followed by a top-4 RCV. It's critical for her to come at least third in terms of First Preferences. If a strong Democrat and Trumpist canidate runs, she can be squesshed into being eliminated first and loosing.

The decline of split-ticket voting hints that voters might not be as favourable toward her type of canidates as they were in 2010.

[JMT]

Al Gross considering another run:

https://twitter.com/jacobrubashkin/status/1381650937152991233?s=21

[Roll Roons]

Yeah, I think we can probably sleep on him. He did worse than Biden.

[Canis]

Gross underperformed Biden but he ran a decent campaign and with how weird this race could get with RCV and Murkowski being challenged it's probably a good idea to have a decent candidate here. I'd still rate this at Likely R though.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Al Gross considering another run:

https://twitter.com/jacobrubashkin/status/1381650937152991233?s=21

Feel the Gross 2022

[Frenchrepublican]

Very weak numbers from Murkowksi, possible that she doesn't even bother to run again
https://twitter.com/JamesArkin/status/1382780319586213890?s=20

[President Johnson]

Joe Manchin endorses Murkowski:

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1385571532446044160