AK-SEN 2022: A Rank Choice

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Murkowski would unironically be better positioned for re-election if she switched parties. She's going to get almost all her votes in November from Democrats, and she would want to boost Dem turnout as much as she can. Multiple polls have her approvals among Republicans in the single digits and have her winning from 5-12% of the Republican vote, which is absolutely DREADFUL.

[LDP Everywhere]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ChooseChesbro/status/1524964451182444544?cxt=HHwWgICg...The only dem going all in on abortion.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ChooseChesbro/status/1524964451182444544?cxt=HHwWgICg...
The only dem going all in on abortion.

I still think Chesbro is a Murkowski plant. Only way she isn't is if she attacks Murkowski on abortion, thus causing less dems to place her 2nd.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I would say Tshibaka has a floor of at least 47%.
27% (Palin) + 19% (Begich) = 47%. I just don't see any Palin or Begich voters voting for Murkowski over Tshibaka when Murkowski is more moderate than even Sweeney.
In fact the candidates more conservative than Murkowski make up more than 50% of the special election primary vote (though Democrat turnout was terrible). It's gonna be hard for Murk to win.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Are they ever gonna release a poll of AK

[GeorgiaModerate]

Are they ever gonna release a poll of AK

Alaska is a very difficult state to poll.

[Dude of the Flowers]

Who makes the top four?

My guess is Tshhibaka, Murkowski, and Chesbro at least. No idea who gets the fourth spot.

Also, the Alaska Dem Party endorsed Chesbro and Peltola. Do they have something against Edgar Blatchford?

[NewYorkExpress]

Who makes the top four?

My guess is Tshhibaka, Murkowski, and Chesbro at least. No idea who gets the fourth spot.

I'm going to make a possibly insane prediction, and say Murkowski doesn't even make the top four.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Who makes the top four?

My guess is Tshhibaka, Murkowski, and Chesbro at least. No idea who gets the fourth spot.

Wrong Mary Peltola is leading Palin but loses to Begich and Murkowski is beating Trump backed candidate, if anyone loses it's Palin

I'm going to make a possibly insane prediction, and say Murkowski doesn't even make the top four.

[Chillary]

I'm guessing the top four will be Tshibaka, Murkowski, Chesbro, and one of the third parties.

[Minnesota Mike]

Alaska really is it's own animal when it comes to elections. Murkowski came out ahead in the primary with 45% of the votes and looks good for the general election despite the fact she probably lost the Republican vote badly. In the Senate race only 9% of voters voted for a Democratic candidate, while in House race it was 37%. Hard to see many of those Peltola/Republican voters going to Tshibaka.

[GALeftist]

Safe Murkowski --> Titanium Murkowski

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Murkowski has a home in the Democratic Party if she wants it.

This would be the most begrudging welcoming possible. Let's not forget how useless she's been on judicial appointments (remember how she went along with McConnell blocking Garland), the voting rights bill, and more.

IIRC, didn't she meet with Garland & call for a hearing & vote? It's not her fault that Senate discharge petitions don't exist.

If she really wanted a vote on Garland, she could have switched parties then.

Yes, switch the Senate from 54-46R to 53-47R and lose re-election.

Great job SnowLabrador.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Also

Alaska Democratic Party >>>> Florida Democratic Party.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Was looking at Murkowski's Instagram and it very much seems like a blog. She posts pretty regularly and basically all of her posts are her visiting some community and talking about why that community matters and issues important to them. Not surprising but all of it is pretty lowkey and she never is just aggressively punching political points. She’s also good at stating clearly where she stands on various issues in her bio and why.

Tshibaka's Instagram comes off as way more political and entrenched which is ironic, with popping thumbnails all dissing on Murkowski.

I have to appreciate Murkowski for how positive of a campaign she runs even if I may disagree with her. Everything seems to be about why she cares about Alaska rather than all these dark posts about what's wrong with her opponents or the Biden admin. In a RCV system, this seems like a smart strategy as you're more likely to gain universal appeal by not constantly defining where you fall on our political spectrum if that makes sense.

I really hope she holds on cause she seems like a genuinely good and thoughtful person relative to Tshibaka and is pretty in line with where Alaska as a whole stand on the issues. Peltola's recent win really gives me hope that a majority of Alaska isn't hard MAGA and she can form a winning coalition.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Murkowski has a home in the Democratic Party if she wants it.

This would be the most begrudging welcoming possible. Let's not forget how useless she's been on judicial appointments (remember how she went along with McConnell blocking Garland), the voting rights bill, and more.

IIRC, didn't she meet with Garland & call for a hearing & vote? It's not her fault that Senate discharge petitions don't exist.

If she really wanted a vote on Garland, she could have switched parties then.

Yes, switch the Senate from 54-46R to 53-47R and lose re-election.

Great job SnowLabrador.

My sense of Murkowski is she really doesn’t like the state of the current R party but has optimism at party will eventually find its senses again and become a more mainstream opposition party rather than the MAGA mess it is now. I think fundamentally she is a conservative and her family/culture just has deep R roots meaning it’s take quite a lot for her to formally switch. If anything she’d become an Independent.

Maybe she’s waiting to see how Rs decide to campaign come 2024 and if they go full Trump again she may become an Independent. I really doubt she would outright flip senate control though so this assumes whoever is in the majorly has a few seats buffer.

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1569680380411711488?s=21&t=4FYK-B1QpUs...

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1569680380411711488?s=21&t=4FYK-B1QpUs...

Four is a weird number for a runoff, I really don’t know why they don’t just to a normal RCV

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://news.yahoo.com/trump-backed-tshibaka-projected-defeat-142919566.html

[GeorgiaModerate]

538 has the current probabilities at 53% for Tshibaka and 47% for Murkowski.  That's a toss-up by any reasonable definition.

[BenjiG98]

I always thought she would be favored. What changed?

[Pollster]

Appears that 538 is not simulating RCV and is expecting Tshibaka to finish first in round one, which seems reasonable.

[Brittain33]

Would anyone like to suggest a new thread title to carry us through the elections? The current one isn’t news any longer.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Would anyone like to suggest a new thread title to carry us through the elections? The current one isn’t news any longer.

A Rank Choice.

[Spectator]

538 has the current probabilities at 53% for Tshibaka and 47% for Murkowski.  That's a toss-up by any reasonable definition.

I think that’s just that one screwy poll, which doesn’t align at all with what we saw in the primary. The other polls have had Murkowski up much more comfortably. I don’t think Murkowski is in any real danger.