Will Macron get reelected?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Too early to tell. But I think it is important not to forget that his election (which I noted as a possibility before everyone else, heh) was essentially a freak event: every other candidate was, in some form or other, unpalatable to a majority of the electorate, and there stood he, the ultimate electoral blank cheque. For now, all we can say is that we don't even know who his biggest threat is likely to be, or from what direction they might come.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

French politics was never about a conflict between social democracy and 'classical conservatism', literally never.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

We can't make any predictions on this until we know who the candidates are. At this stage for the last election, nobody was mentioning Macron and it was widely assumed that the LR candidate was a shoo-in.

And Juppe been the LR candidate, he would have been!