Will Macron get reelected?
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  Will Macron get reelected?
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Sir Mohamed
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« on: July 09, 2020, 09:26:03 AM »

Emmanuel Macron has quickly lost popularity after taking office, and his party didn't do well in local elections this year. As I'm not that much into French politics, what are his chances to get reelected in April 2022? Unpopularity alone might not lead to automatic defeat if he maintains enough support to advance to the runoff and face a weak or unacceptable challenger in the 2nd round.

If I'm not mistaken, he's likely to face Marine LePen again in a runoff. I doubt she's able to win, but might improve compared to 2017. As in several other European countries, the French left seems to be dead, especially the social democratic lane. Not sure what to make of "Les Republicans" as it appears they have issues of their own and lack a clear leader who could launch a serious challenge to both Macron and take votes from the far-right.
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« Reply #1 on: July 09, 2020, 10:04:12 AM »

I think he will simply because half the population would prefer him to any likely runoff opponent. He'd obviously beat Le Pen again. Against someone like Fillon he'd also get the reluctant support of the left. Meanwhile the right would definitely back him over someone like Melenchon.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #2 on: July 09, 2020, 10:35:35 AM »

Hope not.
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Astatine
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« Reply #3 on: July 09, 2020, 11:11:30 AM »

Probably yes. With his new cabinet, he basically sucked up the whole Republican Party. They have hardly any high-profile candidates to run.

So he clears up the center and some of the center-right, putting him somewhere between 25 and 30 %.
Le Pen will get 20 %.
Melenchon lost support in recent times, due to controbersial comments, and with the rise of the Greens/EELV, the left will likely be too divided once again to send a candidate to the runoff.

Barring of course that Macron's will plummet Hollande-style, then he coule be challanged within his party (Maybe Ex PM Edouard Philippe, he is quite popular?).
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #4 on: July 09, 2020, 11:38:24 AM »

So long as he's able to keep his shaky coalition together (that is, unless something monumental happens that causes his government to collapse), Macron will most likely make it into the 2nd round & then win again. Despite how unpopular he is, literally every other leader of every other party & movement is significantly more unpopular: Le Pen voters won't vote for Mélenchon; Mélenchon voters won't vote for Le Pen; Republican voters could split between Macron & Le Pen, but they won't vote for Mélenchon. For the left, keeping a fascist out is more important than ending austerity (though if things keep getting worse, I'm not sure that's sustainable).
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parochial boy
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« Reply #5 on: July 09, 2020, 05:23:58 PM »
« Edited: July 09, 2020, 05:50:32 PM by parochial boy »

He's the favourite at the moment, but that's principally down to the lack of a palatable viable alternative at the moment. And there's every chance that he will stay. But what I would point out is some combination of

 - There is the potential for a dark horse candidate to emerge. Lots of media speculation about Philippe, who polls show as being significantly more popular than his old boss; but also the spanner in the works factor of some wannabe populist celebrity candidate like a Raoult/Hanouna/Bigard, who would probably do badly but might put a dent in, say, Le Pen's electorate

 - Don't expect him to win it just by triangulating the electorate. That doesn't work at the best of times, even before you account for France in the current day, and its huge component of ni-ni voters who could theoretically be up for voting for someone either to the right or left of Macron.

 - In that respect, Macron's electorate now is not Macron's 2017 electorate. As his government has moved further to the right, so have his voters, who are now older, higher income, more likely to be cadres, more likely to live in upmarket suburbs than in the villes-centres. Basically more like the traditional LR electorate. As an example of this, compare Macron's first round share of the vote to LREM's 2019 European Election vote in bourgeois Neuilly-sur-Seine and the bobo 10th arrondissement of Paris. Massive gains in the former and losses in the latter. Basically, Macron will be going into 2022 as a right wing candidate with a right wing electorate, and that wasn't the case in 2017.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #6 on: July 09, 2020, 05:33:13 PM »

Probably. He's a bit of a Luigi.
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Coldstream
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« Reply #7 on: July 10, 2020, 02:50:43 AM »

He’s still far less hated than everyone else. He’s effectively coopted the entirety of the centre, centre right and centre left minus the Greens and rump Socialists/Republicans and none of them are likely to overhaul him by 2022. I query how real Phillippe’s popularity is, I think he’s more likeable than Macron but I don’t think he’s got enough to take the presidency from him (if we’re looking it in 2017 terms he’s more Valls than Macron). Though it’s not impossible, I’d say Macron’s only chance to lose is if another candidate emerges that can take up the centre/centre right lane, but it’s not likely.

The only candidate who could really get in to the run off besides him is Le Pen, and Macron will beat her again. Melenchon is too disliked to come second unless another far right candidate can pull support away from Le Pen in the first round, which doesn’t seem likely.
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jaichind
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« Reply #8 on: July 10, 2020, 06:55:09 AM »

It seems Le Pen will make it into the top 2 candidates so as long as he can also make it into the top 2 vote winners in the first round he will win.  I think this is why he is shifting Right.  One the Left the field will be mostly scattered so his main risk is a LR candidate beating him out in the first round.  So a shift Right will eat into the LR vote and he can let the EELV PCP PS G·s and LFI candidates split the Left vote leaving him to face Le Pen in the second round.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #9 on: July 10, 2020, 07:00:01 AM »

The risk for him is that he alienates so many people that he does a Jospin. That still looks unlikely at present, but we can always hope Smiley
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Hope For A New Era
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« Reply #10 on: July 10, 2020, 07:35:58 AM »

He seems to be a bit of an anti-populism big tent, so since Le Pen's supporters are "locked in" in a similar way to Trump's, he seems likely to win.
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windjammer
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« Reply #11 on: July 10, 2020, 07:50:30 AM »

Too soon to tell.
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jaymichaud
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« Reply #12 on: July 10, 2020, 12:41:41 PM »

Yes. The Socialist Party is dead and the Republicans are hasbeens and massively out of touch. LfI/RN are never winning an election as everyone else on the political spectrum would gang up on them as what happened to Le Pen in 2017.

Sure, his approval ratings are piss poor but that's the same for every party leader.
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catographer
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« Reply #13 on: July 22, 2020, 04:06:12 PM »

Regardless of if he wins or not, his party and movement won’t survive him right? Isn’t that always the case with personality parties? I can’t think of a personality party that outlasted the person. Help me find an example...
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DL
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« Reply #14 on: July 22, 2020, 04:11:38 PM »

Regardless of if he wins or not, his party and movement won’t survive him right? Isn’t that always the case with personality parties? I can’t think of a personality party that outlasted the person. Help me find an example...

The Gaullist party in France survived the death of DeGaulle (albeit with a series of name changes)
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #15 on: July 22, 2020, 04:52:45 PM »

On one hand, who'll stand up to him really?

On the other, it's France.
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BigSerg
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« Reply #16 on: July 24, 2020, 07:55:08 AM »

Yes. The Socialist Party is dead and the Republicans are hasbeens and massively out of touch. LfI/RN are never winning an election as everyone else on the political spectrum would gang up on them as what happened to Le Pen in 2017.

Sure, his approval ratings are piss poor but that's the same for every party leader.

Le pen has literally gone up more than 10 points in the polls, still lose but they shouldn't dismiss it so easily.
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Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #17 on: July 24, 2020, 08:09:06 AM »

Regardless of if he wins or not, his party and movement won’t survive him right? Isn’t that always the case with personality parties? I can’t think of a personality party that outlasted the person. Help me find an example...

Peronistas are still alive and well in Argentinian politics, methinks. Perón died more than 40 years ago. Of course there was also a military dictatorship in the middle...
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Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #18 on: July 24, 2020, 08:13:34 AM »

The risk for him is that he alienates so many people that he does a Jospin. That still looks unlikely at present, but we can always hope Smiley

You mean like Jospin in 2002?
I actually find it possible, but also unlikely because LREM still has enough buy-in with a substantial minority of people.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #19 on: July 24, 2020, 09:21:48 AM »

Regardless of if he wins or not, his party and movement won’t survive him right? Isn’t that always the case with personality parties? I can’t think of a personality party that outlasted the person. Help me find an example...

The bigger question here would be, which party takes its place? The National Front de facto replaced Les Republicans as major force on the right side of the political spectrum. On the left, the Hollande's PS is de facto dead. The far-left alone is too weak for majority as well. Maybe the Greens? France is a prime example how the main political conflict is no longer between social democracy and classical conservatism, but has shifted to globalism vs. nationalism.
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MABA 2020
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« Reply #20 on: July 24, 2020, 04:50:37 PM »

Yes he will be reelected
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UWS
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« Reply #21 on: July 24, 2020, 05:23:40 PM »
« Edited: July 24, 2020, 05:29:44 PM by UWS »

I believe he surely wins re-election because the French economy is getting better and better with a decreasing unemployment rate that has gone down from . In addition, according to the website Trading Economics, despite Covid-19, the unemployment rate in declined from 8.1 % in February 2020 to 7.8 % in May 2020. Usually, a growing economy benefits the incumbent.

https://tradingeconomics.com/france/unemployment-rate
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adma
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« Reply #22 on: July 24, 2020, 05:58:22 PM »

The National Front de facto replaced Les Republicans as major force on the right side of the political spectrum.

Different base.  There's no way the Lepenistes will conquer Boulogne-Billancourt.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #23 on: July 24, 2020, 06:16:47 PM »

The National Front de facto replaced Les Republicans as major force on the right side of the political spectrum.

Different base.  There's no way the Lepenistes will conquer Boulogne-Billancourt.

If anything, the local elections showed that LR and LREM might end up aligning forces nationally in the near future.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #24 on: July 24, 2020, 06:48:52 PM »

Too early to tell. But I think it is important not to forget that his election (which I noted as a possibility before everyone else, heh) was essentially a freak event: every other candidate was, in some form or other, unpalatable to a majority of the electorate, and there stood he, the ultimate electoral blank cheque. For now, all we can say is that we don't even know who his biggest threat is likely to be, or from what direction they might come.
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