Will Macron get reelected?

[adma]

The National Front de facto replaced Les Republicans as major force on the right side of the political spectrum.

Different base.  There's no way the Lepenistes will conquer Boulogne-Billancourt.

[adma]

69% arguably isn't that great, though (admittedly, the other poll is better)

Still, generic "a" left-wing or right-wing candidate (particularly if it's only first-round) doesn't indicate a particularly galvanized opposition--and of course, the 69% should be augmented by the 10% of counter-switching Hamon/Melenchon vote.  And that's not even accounting for whatever counter-switchers there might be on the right...