Will Macron get reelected?

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Regardless of if he wins or not, his party and movement won’t survive him right? Isn’t that always the case with personality parties? I can’t think of a personality party that outlasted the person. Help me find an example...

Peronistas are still alive and well in Argentinian politics, methinks. Perón died more than 40 years ago. Of course there was also a military dictatorship in the middle...

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

The risk for him is that he alienates so many people that he does a Jospin. That still looks unlikely at present, but we can always hope

You mean like Jospin in 2002?
I actually find it possible, but also unlikely because LREM still has enough buy-in with a substantial minority of people.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

How many people here would argue that the biggest threat to Macron in 2022 might be a Philippe candidacy?



As for me, I don't know. It seems to me like the perfect anti-Macron candidate would be a Green who coalesces all the left-of-centre forces and then somehow 1. gets to the runoff 2. gets all the Rassemblement National votes. And well this scenario is pretty absurd.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

How many people here would argue that the biggest threat to Macron in 2022 might be a Philippe candidacy?



As for me, I don't know. It seems to me like the perfect anti-Macron candidate would be a Green who coalesces all the left-of-centre forces and then somehow 1. gets to the runoff 2. gets all the Rassemblement National votes. And well this scenario is pretty absurd.

I think you're close, but actually the perfect anti-Macron candidate is a Green who coalesces enough left-of-centre votes to force Macron into third, then runs the usual anti-FN campaign in the run-off.

Or to put it another way, the perfect anti-Macron candidate is actually two candidates, one ensuring that Macron can't steal the LR vote and another eating into his left flank.

So basically a rehash of 2017 except that the Green does slightly better than Melénchon and Macron does slightly worse than he did then?
I find it so crazy to have a politics split in 4 different camps all hovering around 20% of the vote.