Will Macron get reelected?

[CumbrianLefty]

Hope not.

[CumbrianLefty]

The risk for him is that he alienates so many people that he does a Jospin. That still looks unlikely at present, but we can always hope

[CumbrianLefty]

France is a prime example how the main political conflict is no longer between social democracy and classical conservatism, but has shifted to globalism vs. nationalism.

Of course there is *some* truth in this, but some people seem to almost fervently want it to be *universally* true. Which is still (even in France) a fair way from being the case.

[CumbrianLefty]

69% arguably isn't that great, though (admittedly, the other poll is better)

[CumbrianLefty]

How does Macron keep managing to save his approval rating?

In this case, new government boost + EU package.

Indeed, his ratings have been in the dumps previously - and could quite feasibly be so again.

[CumbrianLefty]

Too early to tell. But I think it is important not to forget that his election (which I noted as a possibility before everyone else, heh) was essentially a freak event: every other candidate was, in some form or other, unpalatable to a majority of the electorate, and there stood he, the ultimate electoral blank cheque. For now, all we can say is that we don't even know who his biggest threat is likely to be, or from what direction they might come.

Don’t forget Covid will be a recent memory and indirectly an issue.

But is anybody else well placed to take advantage of government failings?