Will Macron get reelected?

[Kingpoleon]

There are a couple ways for him to lose.

1) Goes against Melenchon or Le Pen in the runoff, and the right or left, respectively, just does not turn out for him. At all.
2) Goes against a moderate leftist or rightist who digs enough into the center vote while mobilizing an energetic left/right that Macron loses, esp. because the other side, not feeling remotely threatened, doesn’t need to turn out and vote for him.
3) A populist candidate makes it into the second round, and somehow manages to get Melenchon voters, Le Pen voters, and even a few more centrist populists from the Macron vote. This seems like the easiest way for him to lose, but it would be very hard for them to make it into the second round, I think.