parochial boy
parochial_boy
Junior Chimp
Posts: 5,107
Political Matrix
E: -8.38, S: -6.78
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« on: July 09, 2020, 05:23:58 PM » |
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« edited: July 09, 2020, 05:50:32 PM by parochial boy »
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He's the favourite at the moment, but that's principally down to the lack of a palatable viable alternative at the moment. And there's every chance that he will stay. But what I would point out is some combination of
- There is the potential for a dark horse candidate to emerge. Lots of media speculation about Philippe, who polls show as being significantly more popular than his old boss; but also the spanner in the works factor of some wannabe populist celebrity candidate like a Raoult/Hanouna/Bigard, who would probably do badly but might put a dent in, say, Le Pen's electorate
- Don't expect him to win it just by triangulating the electorate. That doesn't work at the best of times, even before you account for France in the current day, and its huge component of ni-ni voters who could theoretically be up for voting for someone either to the right or left of Macron.
- In that respect, Macron's electorate now is not Macron's 2017 electorate. As his government has moved further to the right, so have his voters, who are now older, higher income, more likely to be cadres, more likely to live in upmarket suburbs than in the villes-centres. Basically more like the traditional LR electorate. As an example of this, compare Macron's first round share of the vote to LREM's 2019 European Election vote in bourgeois Neuilly-sur-Seine and the bobo 10th arrondissement of Paris. Massive gains in the former and losses in the latter. Basically, Macron will be going into 2022 as a right wing candidate with a right wing electorate, and that wasn't the case in 2017.
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