- In that respect, Macron's electorate now is not Macron's 2017 electorate. As his government has moved further to the right, so have his voters, who are now older, higher income, more likely to be cadres, more likely to live in upmarket suburbs than in the villes-centres. Basically more like the traditional LR electorate. As an example of this, compare Macron's first round share of the vote to LREM's 2019 European Election vote in bourgeois Neuilly-sur-Seine and the bobo 10th arrondissement of Paris. Massive gains in the former and losses in the latter. Basically, Macron will be going into 2022 as a right wing candidate with a right wing electorate, and that wasn't the case in 2017.
But it may be different for the presidential election. At the moment, according to the last 2 presidential election polls:
- Elabe: 77% of Macron's voters in 2017 would still vote for him in 2022, 10% would vote for a left-wing candidate, 13% would vote for a right-wing candidate. 12% of those who voted Hamon or Mélenchon would vote Macron.
- Harris: 69% would still vote for Macron, 14% would vote for a left-wing candidate, 15% would vote for a right-wing candidate. Roughly 10% fo those who voted for Hamon or Mélenchon would vote Macron in 2022.
