AK (PPP) - Sullivan +5

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/DavidNir/status/1281234132425674754

Murkowski's approvals are shockingly poor. A strong plurality of independents disapprove of her, and she is tied among Democrats. However, I am not surprised about her poor approvals among Republicans, with whom she has always been unpopular. After all, she lost the 2010 primary, and in 2016, almost certainly lost the Republican vote to her 2010 opponent Joe Miller (running as a Libertarian that year). It seems like her recent votes against witnesses and to acquit Trump did nothing to earn her support among them. She is definitely vulnerable in 2022.

[Calthrina950]

Still Lean R, but an incumbent at 39%, against a candidate with poor name recognition is very ominous.

Sullivan only won by 3% in 2014, a Republican wave year, and he has been an unimpressive Senator who has voted strictly party-line on every issue-in contrast to Murkowski (and we can see what position she is in). So this shouldn't be too surprising. I too, still think that he is favored, but he could very well be poised for another narrow plurality win.