AK (PPP) - Sullivan +5
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
January 31, 2023, 03:28:22 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2020 Senate & House Election Polls
  AK (PPP) - Sullivan +5
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: AK (PPP) - Sullivan +5  (Read 1671 times)
Lisa's voting Biden
LCameronAL
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,903
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.75, S: -3.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: July 09, 2020, 09:02:43 AM »

Logged
The Mikado
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,235


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: July 09, 2020, 09:04:03 AM »

Logged
Dopesmoker
20RP12
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 35,575
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.03, S: -6.61


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: July 09, 2020, 09:06:32 AM »

Flipping the Congressional seat? Gross potentially making gains? N U T

Also:

Logged
Pollster
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,358


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: July 09, 2020, 09:10:16 AM »

This has Gross a bit lower than we've seen, but generally has the state of the race (all three races) in the same ballpark.

Murkowski's numbers are brutal.
Logged
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,131


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: July 09, 2020, 09:12:48 AM »

This has Gross a bit lower than we've seen, but generally has the state of the race (all three races) in the same ballpark.

Murkowski's numbers are brutal.

Could that be because Gross is an independent who hasn't yet received the Democratic nomination before (unlike Galvin)? It would account for the higher number of undecided voters, at least. Democratic-leaning respondents could be holding out on the assumption that he's a pure independent and that they'd prefer to wait for a Democratic candidate.

Forrest Dunbar polled slightly higher in an August 2019 survey with a (D) next to his name than with an (I). That probably reverses by election day for most independent candidates with Democratic support.
Logged
brucejoel99
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,519
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: July 09, 2020, 09:15:36 AM »


Wow, 29% approve/55% disapprove. That's... surprising.
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,205


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: July 09, 2020, 09:23:17 AM »

Gross has done pretty good at fundraising, hasn't he?
Logged
MT Treasurer (Daines's Brain)
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,409
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: July 09, 2020, 09:24:37 AM »


Wow, 29% approve/55% disapprove. That's... surprising.

Is it? There’s no reason for a Republican to approve of Murkowski + she’ll never win over enough Democrats to offset that because of the "R" next to her name. Collins' numbers would look similar if not worse if she actively distanced herself from the party.
Logged
Skye
yeah_93
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,570
Venezuela


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: July 09, 2020, 09:26:53 AM »


Wow, 29% approve/55% disapprove. That's... surprising.

Pissing Trump voters in a Trump state is going to give you bad numbers.
Logged
Mr.Barkari Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 74,649
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: July 09, 2020, 09:27:27 AM »

Ds losing the Congressional, it's clear now Ds will win this race. Not a good poll for Rs
Logged
Pollster
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,358


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: July 09, 2020, 09:33:39 AM »

This has Gross a bit lower than we've seen, but generally has the state of the race (all three races) in the same ballpark.

Murkowski's numbers are brutal.

Could that be because Gross is an independent who hasn't yet received the Democratic nomination before (unlike Galvin)? It would account for the higher number of undecided voters, at least. Democratic-leaning respondents could be holding out on the assumption that he's a pure independent and that they'd prefer to wait for a Democratic candidate.

Forrest Dunbar polled slightly higher in an August 2019 survey with a (D) next to his name than with an (I). That probably reverses by election day for most independent candidates with Democratic support.

It looks like PPP presented him as "Independent Al Gross" which is not how he will appear on the ballot. Here is 2018's sample ballot, for reference. Unsure exactly who is undecided in this poll based on the crosstabs, unfortunately.
Logged
Mr.Barkari Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 74,649
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: July 09, 2020, 09:37:37 AM »

Rs are in enough trouble in MT, AZ, IA, ME, GA, runoff. NC, KS havent been polled lately. 5 pts is bad news for Sullivan
Logged
The Ex-Factor
xfactor99
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,239
Viet Nam


Political Matrix
E: -5.42, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: July 09, 2020, 09:57:46 AM »

Logged
Calthrina950
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,958
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: July 09, 2020, 10:00:50 AM »



Murkowski's approvals are shockingly poor. A strong plurality of independents disapprove of her, and she is tied among Democrats. However, I am not surprised about her poor approvals among Republicans, with whom she has always been unpopular. After all, she lost the 2010 primary, and in 2016, almost certainly lost the Republican vote to her 2010 opponent Joe Miller (running as a Libertarian that year). It seems like her recent votes against witnesses and to acquit Trump did nothing to earn her support among them. She is definitely vulnerable in 2022.
Logged
Oryxslayer
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,900


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: July 09, 2020, 10:06:47 AM »

This has Gross a bit lower than we've seen, but generally has the state of the race (all three races) in the same ballpark.

Murkowski's numbers are brutal.

Could that be because Gross is an independent who hasn't yet received the Democratic nomination before (unlike Galvin)? It would account for the higher number of undecided voters, at least. Democratic-leaning respondents could be holding out on the assumption that he's a pure independent and that they'd prefer to wait for a Democratic candidate.

Forrest Dunbar polled slightly higher in an August 2019 survey with a (D) next to his name than with an (I). That probably reverses by election day for most independent candidates with Democratic support.

It looks like PPP presented him as "Independent Al Gross" which is not how he will appear on the ballot. Here is 2018's sample ballot, for reference. Unsure exactly who is undecided in this poll based on the crosstabs, unfortunately.

Looking at the crosstabs, 25% of democrats, 23% of Republicans and 30% of Independents are undecided on the senate. The numbers are similar when we look at stated 2016 vote. Looks fluid.
Logged
Sir Mohamed 🇺🇸 🇺🇦
MohamedChalid
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,456
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: July 09, 2020, 10:07:43 AM »

So many undecideds makes the poll practically worthless. Sullivan under 40 is not an encouraging sign for him, but the fact Gross runs way behind Biden isn't great either. My take is Sullivan will get reelected by mid single digits.
Logged
Pollster
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,358


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: July 09, 2020, 10:20:41 AM »

This has Gross a bit lower than we've seen, but generally has the state of the race (all three races) in the same ballpark.

Murkowski's numbers are brutal.

Could that be because Gross is an independent who hasn't yet received the Democratic nomination before (unlike Galvin)? It would account for the higher number of undecided voters, at least. Democratic-leaning respondents could be holding out on the assumption that he's a pure independent and that they'd prefer to wait for a Democratic candidate.

Forrest Dunbar polled slightly higher in an August 2019 survey with a (D) next to his name than with an (I). That probably reverses by election day for most independent candidates with Democratic support.

It looks like PPP presented him as "Independent Al Gross" which is not how he will appear on the ballot. Here is 2018's sample ballot, for reference. Unsure exactly who is undecided in this poll based on the crosstabs, unfortunately.

Looking at the crosstabs, 25% of democrats, 23% of Republicans and 30% of Independents are undecided on the senate. The numbers are similar when we look at stated 2016 vote. Looks fluid.

The Senate Ballot/Party crosstabs are showing what percent of each party is undecided, not what percent of the undecideds are each party. Good data, but not exactly helpful for predicting how undecideds will break unless you want to do a lot of annoying math.
Logged
ProgressiveModerate
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,130


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: July 09, 2020, 10:28:50 AM »

What'd I keep telling ya'll this entire time. AK-Senate is a competative race. Gross's numbers could very well increase as he defines himself as a canidate, since there are still undecides, and once people know about Gross, they really seem to like him. My current model has gross with a 1/5 chance of winning, and I'm guessing once I imput this poll, his chances will go up.
Logged
Mr.Barkari Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 74,649
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: July 09, 2020, 10:31:06 AM »

We know its competetive due to fact Young is losing
Logged
Holmes
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,405
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: July 09, 2020, 10:31:49 AM »

Both candidates being in the 30’s is pretty useless, especially since it’s a poll of Alaska. Pretty poor for an incumbent, though.
Logged
Mike Thick
tedbessell
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,091


Political Matrix
E: -6.65, S: -8.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: July 09, 2020, 10:32:02 AM »

Incumbent under 40 is, uh, bad. Especially when the opponent’s name rec is still in the 20s
Logged
Ferguson97
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,324
United States


P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: July 09, 2020, 10:32:51 AM »

Gonna predict very very narrow Trump/Sullivan/Galvin victories.

Trump+5
Sullivan+3
Galvin+1
Logged
Landslide Lyndon
px75
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,637
Greece


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: July 09, 2020, 10:35:23 AM »



She'll probably pull a Jim Jeffords if Democrats control the senate after November.
Logged
WD
Western Democrat
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,489
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -0.35

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: July 09, 2020, 11:07:18 AM »



She'll probably pull a Jim Jeffords if Democrats control the senate after November.

Do you mean she’ll be an independent and caucus with the Dems? Or outright become a Democrat?
Logged
brucejoel99
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,519
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: July 09, 2020, 11:11:45 AM »


Yeah, what's pretty interesting is that more Clinton 2016 voters approve of her than disapprove, so I actually wouldn't be all that surprised if polling convinced her to change parties because if AK doesn't make the switch to RCV, then she'd definitely lose a Republican primary again a-la 2010.

And if she does become an Independent who caucuses with Democrats, then - without having to support McConnell &/or win over GOP primary voters - I have a feeling she'd be no more conservative in the Senate as an Independent Democrat than Manchin or Sinema have been, not least because there's literally nothing wrong with having Manchin-style Democrats in states like WV & AK since her being another Manchin is much more preferable than her keeping the (R) next to her name.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.091 seconds with 12 queries.