ME- PPP: Gideon +4

[VAR]

July 2-3
1022 voters
MoE: 3.1%

Undecided 11%

Edit: I'm moving this one back to a lean D which is much closer to tilt than likely D. The fundamentals suggest that to me and the polls no longer really contradict it.

Nah. This poll isn’t weighted by education, which is crucial when polling Maine. Collins will win big with white voters with no degree, even those who are voting for Biden. So that’s an indication that Collins is being underestimated by this poll.

This is the PPP poll from March: https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/MaineResults.pdf

The share of Republicans in the sample declined 4 points for some reason, and the % of undecided R’s jumped to 16% from 10%. Meanwhile, Gideon’s margin remained unchanged.

I think a better poll would show us a tighter race. Still Tilt Gideon however. I give her a 52% chance of winning.

[wbrocks67]

Considering she outperforms her approval rating by 6 points and she gets as much as Trump in voting intention, wouldn't it point that the extremely right-wing Republicans have already came home?

Not exactly. 16% of Republicans are still “undecided”. That’s 4.8% of the electorate, so there’s a lot of room for Collins to grow.

She still needs to win independents — among which she and Gideon are tied at 44 percent. Collins outperforms her approval rating by 5 points among independents. I think that has to do with her “brand”.

Her approval is -11 among Independents though, so I wouldn't count on many of the undecideds crossing over

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Maine Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2020-07-03

Summary: D: 46%, R: 42%, U: 11%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details