ME- PPP: Gideon +4

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/MaineJuly2020Poll.pdf

Gideon      46
Collins       42


Collins approval: 36/55

[JG]

Those approval ratings...Oof. They look like Trump's. And yes, I know some of those not approving of Collins may be conservative republicans who don't think she is conservative enough but will end up voting for her anyway. (As we can see with her outperforming her approval by 6 points).

[Hope For A New Era]

Odd that Gideon has such a small lead. With Collins having that little approval, I'd expect more.

[Person Man]

It definitely looks like Collins can still win if she can go nuclear effectively and quickly enough and if she doesn't or ends up just insulting everyone trying to do so, Gideon will win big.

[DaWN]

Can't possibly imagine where those undecideds might be leaning

[ajc0918]

It definitely looks like Collins can still win if she can go nuclear effectively and quickly enough and if she doesn't or ends up just insulting everyone trying to do so, Gideon will win big.

Collins has less money than Gideon. That won't work.

[YE]

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=362974.msg7220839#new

Last poll was 47-43 Gideon but had Collins at lower approval (going to assume its GOPers coming home).

[Oryxslayer]

Hey look, it's a quality (albeit D-tilting, but still quality) Maine poll. Surprise Surprise, Gideon leads and Collins's approval is in the sh**tter.

[wbrocks67]

So undecideds definitely lean Biden, so Collins, being an incumbent, nearly being below 40% in a state that Trump is losing by double digits, looks terrible for her.

And her own approval is nearly in the -20s.

[Sir Mohamed]

Far more reliable than the previous GOP internal, but I wish we had some more polls from ME, especially high-quality ones such as Marquette or Fox News. Biden will definitely do better than Gideon (or Trump worse than Collins). Dems shouldn't take it for granted, but Collins' horrible approvals are worrying for her reelection hopes. A long time incumbent who won in landslides for previous cycles at 42% now is pretty bad.

[morgieb]

Odd that Gideon has such a small lead. With Collins having that little approval, I'd expect more.

Name rec probably has something to do with it. Plus I think there's also conservatives who disapprove of Collins but vote for her regardless.

EDIT: On this, Trump and Collins are both on 42% but Gideon is a fair bit behind Biden. That's not a good sign for Collins IMO.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

July 2-3
1022 voters
MoE: 3.1%

Undecided 11%

Edit: I'm moving this one back to a lean D which is much closer to tilt than likely D. The fundamentals suggest that to me and the polls no longer really contradict it.

[Calthrina950]

It should be particularly alarming for Collins that she is running on par with Trump (in terms of percentage), although Gideon is trailing Biden by several points. And her approvals are absolutely atrocious, and confirm again that her prior reputation as a "moderate pragmatist" has been greatly undermined. This race remains a Tossup, given the NRSC poll which had Collins ahead and given that Gideon is falling short of an absolute majority here, but I would not want to be Collins at this point.

[WD]

Remember when everyone was freaking out a few days ago about how Collins was the favorite because of some GOP internal? Peperage Farm remembers.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

It definitely looks like Collins can still win if she can go nuclear effectively and quickly enough and if she doesn't or ends up just insulting everyone trying to do so, Gideon will win big.

Collins has less money than Gideon. That won't work.

$3m could still be enough in a small state like Maine, though (as I've mentioned above) I'm a bit more confident once again that this really is lean D. Gideon's fundraising is probably oversaturated.

[Gracile]

Pollsters really need to ask about respondents' RCV choices when polling ME-SEN.

[Mr.Barkari Sellers]

Looks like Senate is gonna come down to a tie, CO, ME , NC and win either AZ or MT. Polls in MT and AZ are in flux and of course you have runoffs in GA

[Person Man]

Looks like Senate is gonna come down to a tie, CO, ME , NC and win either AZ or MT. Polls in MT and AZ are in flux and of course you have runoffs in GA

Arizona, Colorado, and Alabama are flipping barring extenuating circumstances. That's 48-52 (2-46-52 but I digress). I think MI, GA, IA, GA-S, TX, and NH are only in play on a very special night. Like a night where the Republicans are winning the House or if Biden actually campaigns just as well or better than Trump and wins by at least as much as if the election were held tomorrow. The big three will be Maine, North Carolina, and Montana. My own bizarre take on the median voters is that Biden wins (by quite a bit) and sweeps or Trump narrowly wins, "regresses to the norm" by winning the popular vote by about a percent but maybe swapping a couple of states (Michigan and Pennsylvania for Minnesota or something), and the Republicans sweep these three states.

[Zaybay]

Wow, who on earth could have seen this coming?

[South Dakota Democrat]

Far more reliable than the previous GOP internal, but I wish we had some more polls from ME, especially high-quality ones such as Marquette or Fox News. Biden will definitely do better than Gideon (or Trump worse than Collins). Dems shouldn't take it for granted, but Collins' horrible approvals are worrying for her reelection hopes. A long time incumbent who won in landslides for previous cycles at 42% now is pretty bad.

I think Marquette just polls Wisconsin.

[Blair]

I think a lot of people, including myself, are forgetting how much more so of a brand Collins has than the other random first term senators up this cycle (most of whom won because of awful opponents & a national wave)

[Brittain33]

I think a lot of people, including myself, are forgetting how much more so of a brand Collins has than the other random first term senators up this cycle (most of whom won because of awful opponents & a national wave)

A brand she had, if these approvals are accurate.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I think Collins is toast at this point.

Her support is the same as Trump's, which means she's not getting any crossover support from Democrats.

Whether she likes it or not, she's now tied to Trump at the hip, and the only way she wins is if Trump carries the state... which is probably not going to happen.

[wbrocks67]

I think a lot of people, including myself, are forgetting how much more so of a brand Collins has than the other random first term senators up this cycle (most of whom won because of awful opponents & a national wave)

Why do people still seem to think she has some moderate brand in Maine? Like there are no actual pieces of evidence to suggest this

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I think a lot of people, including myself, are forgetting how much more so of a brand Collins has than the other random first term senators up this cycle (most of whom won because of awful opponents & a national wave)

Why do people still seem to think she has some moderate brand in Maine? Like there are no actual pieces of evidence to suggest this

The 7 point advantage over Trump suggests it. Some of that may be down to Gideon's "low name recognition", but she's not invisible as Speaker of the state house with an incredibly well-financed campaign and Collins is presumably having her numbers lowered in part by Trump supporters who aren't yet willing to back her but will in an RCV-based general election.