Ontario by-elections

[2952-0-0]

Today voters in three Ontario ridings choose their replacement MPPs in byelections. This is seen as a bellweather for next year's general election, so we'd better pay attention .

In Toronto Danforth (NDP stronghold for 40 years provincially, currently held by Jack Layton at federal level), Liberal TV news anchor Ben Chin competes against NDP city councillor Peter Tabuns.

In Whitby-Ajax (another suburban/exurban riding IIRC) ex-federal Liberal MP Judi Longfield is jostling against Christine Elliot, the wife of Jim Flaherty (the MP who defeated Longfield in January's federal election, now Tory finance minister).

In Nepan-Carlton, in Ottawa, Tory Lisa MacLeod is expected to easily win.

Currently the Liberals have a slim lead over Tories province-wide, so it would be a shock upset if they win any of the three.

More later...

[Hatman 🍁]

There are three provincial by-elections going on in Ontario today. They were both caused by three MPPs running for the House of Commons in the last federal election, thereby giving up their seats in the Ontario legislature.  I have been the volunteer co-ordinator for the Green candidate in Nepean-Carleton. I dont support the greens, but he is a friend of mine from Wikipedia, so I said I'd help out. Here's a synopsis of the races.

Nepean-Carleton.
Vacated when John Baird (PC) ran federally (and won) for the Conservatives in Ottawa West-Nepean. Baird is now President of the Canadian Treasury Board. Nepean-Carleton is a strong Conservative riding consisting of mostly suburbs of southern and western Ottawa with rural areas. Running for the tories is Lisa Macleod and running for the Liberals is former Ottawa police chief John Ford.

Toronto-Daforth
Vacated when Marilyn Churley (NDP) ran federally (but lost) in Beaches-East York. Toronto-Danforth is a very urban riding in downtown Toronto that leans NDP. It should go to the NDP again. Running for them is Peter Tabuns, who ran in 2004 federally in Beaches-East York (and lost). Running for the Liberals is Ben Chin, a TV journalist.

Whitby-Ajax
Vacated when Jim Flaherty (PC) ran federally (and won) in Whitby-Oshawa for the Conservatives. Flaherty is now the Finance Miniser of Canada. Whitby-Ajax is a suburban riding located east of Toronto. It leans Conservative, and should go to them in the by-election. Running for the Tories is Christine Elliot and for the Liberals is former MP Judi Longfield.

[Hatman 🍁]

Close race in Toronto-Danforth. Tabuns leads by 500 votes with half the polls in. Surprisingly close in Whitby-Ajax. The tory candidate leads by 400 votes with about half the polls in. In Nepean-Carleton, Lisa MacLeod has run away with it, and I declare her the winner.

[Hatman 🍁]

Tabuns has broken away a bit, he now leads by 900 votes with 76 polls to come.

[Hatman 🍁]

Still very close in Whitby-Ajax. Conservative Christine Elliott leads by about 550 votes. She is sarting to pull away. About 90 polls to come.

[Hatman 🍁]

With a 1000 vote lead, and 60 polls to come, I think I can safely say Peter Tabuns will be elected.

[Hatman 🍁]

Christine Elliott has a 900 vote lead with about 70 polls to come. I think she's safe to win as well.

[Hatman 🍁]

BTW, John Turmel is running in his 61st election. He has 65 votes right now, and he's running in Nepean-Carleton.

[Hatman 🍁]

Synopsis.

While the winners were no surprises, the results were sort of. The Liberals gained % wise in T-D and W-A from the 2003 election. Despite the star candidacy of Brian Ford (who for some reason my dad thought would win) the Liberals lost % wise in Nepean-Carleton.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Liberals got crushed very, very badly in Nepean-Carleton (no suprise as much of it has always been very good for the Tories). In % terms Tabuns's eventual lead wasn't that small in Toronto-Danforth, I think the turnout was pretty low.