The Rural Shift

[OneJ]

I found this tweet to be particularly interesting:

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1280666270338363392

What does it say about this election, assuming these results are true, that the shift against Trump in rural areas is comparable to that of suburban areas?

[Gass3268]

This screams to me that a lot (obviously not all) of the Obama-Trump voters are coming back for Biden, that in addition to the continued suburban surge.

[Calthrina950]

I found this tweet to be particularly interesting:

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1280666270338363392

What does it say about this election, assuming these results are true, that the shift against Trump in rural areas is comparable to that of suburban areas?

It suggests that many of the Obama-Trump voters are coming back to the Democrats, and have recognized that Trump sold them a "bad bill" of goods. And there's little doubt in my mind that some of these people are breaking against him because of his botched handling of the coronavirus pandemic and the corresponding recession which it has caused. If Biden is able to bring back these particular voters, that will aid him in flipping back the Upper Midwest.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I hope it's real, but plenty of other pollsters show a much smaller shift amongst rural voters.

[Zaybay]

The 2018 midterm exit polls also showed a similar shift in rural voters.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Polls showed this in 2018 too, but outside a few quirky areas like Appalachia and the Driftless area, rural areas voted more similarly to 2016 than 2012.

[Intell]

Polls showed this in 2018 too, but outside a few quirky areas like Appalachia and the Driftless area, rural areas voted more similarly to 2016 than 2012.

Huh dems did a lot better in rural areas (outside of the south) than they did in the suburbs (which they still improved in) in 2018 compared to 2016 presidential margins. They didn't get to 2012 margins but they greatly outperformed 2016 margins. The reasons that the suburbs had the greatest gains for the dems was Romney-clinton suburban voters voting strongly d getting  Clinton-R districts into the hands of democrats and suburban districts being much closer than suburban districts.

The south seems like an anomaly in this regard because in Georgia, Mississippi, Alabama, Texas; dems made no ground in rural areas and their gains came exclusively from suburbs.

[Non Swing Voter]

Polls showed this in 2018 too, but outside a few quirky areas like Appalachia and the Driftless area, rural areas voted more similarly to 2016 than 2012.

this.

plus suburban areas are much larger, so the "same" shift in the suburbs has a much larger impact on the vote share, particularly in states like Arizona and Florida.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Polls showed this in 2018 too, but outside a few quirky areas like Appalachia and the Driftless area, rural areas voted more similarly to 2016 than 2012.

Huh dems did a lot better in rural areas (outside of the south) than they did in the suburbs (which they still improved in) in 2018 compared to 2016 presidential margins. They didn't get to 2012 margins but they greatly outperformed 2016 margins. The reasons that the suburbs had the greatest gains for the dems was Romney-clinton suburban voters voting strongly d getting  Clinton-R districts into the hands of democrats and suburban districts being much closer than suburban districts.

The south seems like an anomaly in this regard because in Georgia, Mississippi, Alabama, Texas; dems made no ground in rural areas and their gains came exclusively from suburbs.

I didn’t say that Dems didn’t do better in rural areas in 2018 than 2016. They obviously did. It just wasn’t as good as 2012, and not even close either. They struggled to match Obama in many rural WWC places up north, like Upstate NY, ME-02, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Minnesota, and failed to match Obama’s rural support across the south in places like Georgia, Mississippi, and North Carolina.

These places aren’t coming back.

[RI]

Polling rural areas is hard.

[OSR stands with Israel]

How did Obama do so good in rural areas in 2012

[RINO Tom]

With respect to Democratic gains, Republican dominance or alleged swingyness, there just aren't as many rural voters as people here assume.  Republicans dominate the margins with rural voters, but most of their voters are still suburban or urban.  Rural voters are very important for many House seats and in SOME states' statewide totals (or as a "tipping of the scales" in states with very close suburban votes), but the simple fact is that the vast majority of Democrats AND Republicans live in metro areas of more than 100,000 people in most states.

For example, in Illinois Trump got 52.18% of his votes from counties that Clinton won.  If you expand it to counties that Trump also won but were in non-rural metro areas (e.g., McHenry and Kendall in the Chicago suburbs, Rockford, Bloomington, Peoria, St. Louis suburbs, etc.), Trump got 66.71% of his votes from counties that are clearly not rural in character.  You could start throwing in places like Decatur and exurban Peoria areas, as well, but even keeping it quite conservative, the vast majority of Trump voters weren't rural.  Hell, over 1 in 5 Trump voters lived in Cook County itself.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

With respect to Democratic gains, Republican dominance or alleged swingyness, there just aren't as many rural voters as people here assume.  Republicans dominate the margins with rural voters, but most of their voters are still suburban or urban.  Rural voters are very important for many House seats and in SOME states' statewide totals (or as a "tipping of the scales" in states with very close suburban votes), but the simple fact is that the vast majority of Democrats AND Republicans live in metro areas of more than 100,000 people in most states.

For example, in Illinois Trump got 52.18% of his votes from counties that Clinton won.  If you expand it to counties that Trump also won but were in non-rural metro areas (e.g., McHenry and Kendall in the Chicago suburbs, Rockford, Bloomington, Peoria, St. Louis suburbs, etc.), Trump got 66.71% of his votes from counties that are clearly not rural in character.  You could start throwing in places like Decatur and exurban Peoria areas, as well, but even keeping it quite conservative, the vast majority of Trump voters weren't rural.  Hell, over 1 in 5 Trump voters lived in Cook County itself.

That’s definitely true in states Trump lost, but not exactly true in swing states. While I’m sure he didn’t exactly tank in Des Moines, most of his Iowa vote had to have come from rural areas.

[DINGO Joe]

How did Obama do so good in rural areas in 2012

Hard for "corporations are people" to play the populist card.  Plus, Romney doesn't have the ability to dog whistle on race like the master baiter does.

[Roronoa D. Law]

How did Obama do so good in rural areas in 2012

Because Romney was a Mormon.

[swf541]

How did Obama do so good in rural areas in 2012

Because Romney was a Mormon.

This definitely helped and for some reason people seem to not want to acknowledge it

[Alben Barkley]

How did Obama do so good in rural areas in 2012

Because Romney was a Mormon.

This definitely helped and for some reason people seem to not want to acknowledge it

I SERIOUSLY doubt Romney being a Mormon mattered to these sorts of people more than Obama being black.

[Roronoa D. Law]

How did Obama do so good in rural areas in 2012

Because Romney was a Mormon.

This definitely helped and for some reason people seem to not want to acknowledge it

I SERIOUSLY doubt Romney being a Mormon mattered to these sorts of people more than Obama being black.

I don't know about that. I think we may underestimate how much skepticism there is about the Church of LDS.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

How are rural areas defined exactly?

I see people equating Obama-Trump voters to rural, but I think Obama-Trump voters are mainly found in places like Staten Island, Niagara Falls, Wilkes-Barre, Suffolk Co. (NY), Parma (OH), Youngstown, Rock Island/Moline, exurban Twin Cities, places which I wouldn't call rural like ever in my life.

(People, a 16% swing in Staten Island means many times more people than, say, a 16% swing in Altoona or something)

[Figueira]

How did Obama do so good in rural areas in 2012

He didn't, compared to Democrats in previous elections.

[OSR stands with Israel]

How did Obama do so good in rural areas in 2012

He didn't, compared to Democrats in previous elections.

I believe he did better than Gore and Kerry outside rural areas in Appalachia and the Deep South .

[swf541]

How did Obama do so good in rural areas in 2012

Because Romney was a Mormon.

This definitely helped and for some reason people seem to not want to acknowledge it

I SERIOUSLY doubt Romney being a Mormon mattered to these sorts of people more than Obama being black.

I say this as someone in rural Appalachian Maryland, it mattered more to several voters I knew at the time who typically voted republican more so then Obama being black did.  Evangelicals in general really do not like Mormons.

[Senator-elect Spark]

I am projecting a shift to Biden in college-educated voter share as well as non-educated white voter share. But it will not be enough to win in my view as of now.

[RINO Tom]

With respect to Democratic gains, Republican dominance or alleged swingyness, there just aren't as many rural voters as people here assume.  Republicans dominate the margins with rural voters, but most of their voters are still suburban or urban.  Rural voters are very important for many House seats and in SOME states' statewide totals (or as a "tipping of the scales" in states with very close suburban votes), but the simple fact is that the vast majority of Democrats AND Republicans live in metro areas of more than 100,000 people in most states.

For example, in Illinois Trump got 52.18% of his votes from counties that Clinton won.  If you expand it to counties that Trump also won but were in non-rural metro areas (e.g., McHenry and Kendall in the Chicago suburbs, Rockford, Bloomington, Peoria, St. Louis suburbs, etc.), Trump got 66.71% of his votes from counties that are clearly not rural in character.  You could start throwing in places like Decatur and exurban Peoria areas, as well, but even keeping it quite conservative, the vast majority of Trump voters weren't rural.  Hell, over 1 in 5 Trump voters lived in Cook County itself.

That’s definitely true in states Trump lost, but not exactly true in swing states. While I’m sure he didn’t exactly tank in Des Moines, most of his Iowa vote had to have come from rural areas.

Like I said, there are some states that rural voters hold more sway, with Iowa being one of them.  (However, I did add this up one time for a post, and I do believe that a very large chunk of Trump's votes came from a metro area of over 100,000 in Iowa ... can't remember.)  However, in many states that Trump won, from Arizona to Florida to Michigan to Wisconsin to South Carolina, metro voters were absolutely critical to him winning.

My main point is that while rural voters often provide a decisive victory for Republicans, it is very irresponsible and statistically ignorant to imagine "Trump voters" or "Republican voters" in the vast majority of states as a mainly rural group of people ... the numbers just make that impossible in many states.

[Figueira]

How did Obama do so good in rural areas in 2012

He didn't, compared to Democrats in previous elections.

I believe he did better than Gore and Kerry outside rural areas in Appalachia and the Deep South .

Well yeah, Obama did better than Gore and Kerry across the board.